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February Pattern Disco


40/70 Benchmark

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I think what they mean is that is a very active pattern with seasonable cold.

Shortwave nuances not withstanding.....the set up is not perfect because we lack blocking, thus the specter of precip. type issues looms.

I for one, prefer that at this point....I'm done with the oes, fluff and sharp cut-offs.

 

This is the ideal regime from my vantage point.

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"an overwhelming majority of the analog patterns to the one depicted show that SNE does very well on the whole."

 

Sounds awful...just awful

 

It may never snow again

Whom is that quote from?

 

I hope the euro shows something because the model thread has been overtaken by WINDEX obs :lol:

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i've been monitoring/studying this stratosphere-troposphere winter relationship for years ... 

 

this has got to be an SSW.   at 96 hours there is no trace that anything unusual is going on in the 5hPa level over the polar domain.  then, at 120 hours...ever so slightly hinted  warming kicks in at that very high altitude over northern eurasia/asia. then, at a 144 hours ... kerboom!

 

gfs_t05_nh_f192.png

 

then, by 240 hours, it has moved to over the np and completely displaced the vortex over to the n atlantic.  

 

gfs_t05_nh_f240.png

 

 

moreover, at 30 hPa, the D7 lags and shows no evidence, only to have this happen suddenly by D10

 

gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

 

it is my belief that the first detonation of warming in the 5 hPa level...lagging 4 days and then emerging suddenly in the 30 hPa level, is in fact the early modeled attempt at picking up a downwelling warm anomaly.

 

the reason this is important is obviously to the AO... if it is for real ... -AO end of Feb gets more plausible and that throws curve balls into seam pattern between winter and spring. 

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Well I won't be going by your recommendation rest assured. But I'm glad we can agree that it's not a great look for SNE as modeled . Hopefully we can shift long wave pattern a bit east

I've never see you so freaked out by a deep eastern trough. If after what, 5 storms of 18"+ in the past like 3 years at your house, you may have to deal with an event that gives you 8" followed by taint while ALB gets 14"...and you're freaking out just thinking about that lol.

And if it's 40F and raining in Tolland at 1000ft, most of us in this forum will probably have issues as well.

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