Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's a good pattern for storms. That much is agreed upon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 What? I'm happy for storm threats and opportunities. Beats the last 60 days for sure. Just don;t want rainers while State College to BTV get crushed. Don't worry, these don't happen anymore. But some model heard you for Feb 10-15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don't worry, these don't happen anymore. But some model heard you for Feb 10-15th. Feb10_Feb15.JPG That's precisely what I was referring to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Ventrice had an interesting take on things. He thinks that the MJO (despite it being in crappy phases for us) may get overridden by top down effects of the stratosphere. It's debatable, but it is true that MJO phases aren't pretty for us, yet we will move into a more favorable pattern later next week. The MJO also is helping lead to increased jet across Asia. This leads to mtn torque and increases ridging on the windward sides of the mtns. This can then lead to flux into the stratosphere and help disturb it even more. We'll see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 It looks to me nearly perfect with the high heights to the east forcing storms more s to n vs w to e. I agree that there is the threat of huggers which favor inland areas but also the threat of big honk in' snow storms favoring most of us. Inland areas should be favored. Look at the snowfall deficits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don't worry, these don't happen anymore. But some model heard you for Feb 10-15th. Feb10_Feb15.JPG what is the some model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I don't argue that there isn't. But, given what I see, this pattern would happen regardless of snowpack. The pattern now is certainly conducive for disturbing, and you can even use MJO as it moves east from the IO as a natural way to do so. So to me, to claim this was all Judah FTW, is misleading. But, there is never a way to quantify how much of the theory, is responsible. We'll leave it at that.....to be honest, I don't even possess the expertise to determine an exact degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 How do you know his point was below normal cold? Those are H5 heights, not surface temperatures. Look at how storms would travel in that pattern... If anything, the point is storm chances, not overly cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Yeah but how about storms/snow threat? His point was ho cold/much BN it is..He wasn't talking about storms. It's a good pattern for storms. That much is agreed upon Glad we got that cleared up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Don't worry, these don't happen anymore. But some model heard you for Feb 10-15th. Feb10_Feb15.JPG I am rooting for you, you deserve it as much if not more so than just about anyone here..you eduggs to dendrite and the nice fella out in lenox...hope you guys crush the second half of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Here's another look..That pattern favors the Apps to NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Here's another look..That pattern favors the Apps to NNE welll be happy for them...you have had tons over the past several years...maybe it is their turn and I am sure there will be something for most of us at some point too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Monthly snowfall anomaly with last day 00z on the 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Monthly snowfall anomaly with last day 00z on the 15th? Halfway thru the month of Feb with 0 inches. Unless you're expecting 40 inches in 14 days..it's a concern if you are hoping Feb is snowy in SNE Maybe it's wrong..but I stand by the idea that there could be rainers as opposed to snow events in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol at worrying about day 11-15 precip type in a pattern with a massive ridge out west. If you can't handle uncertainty in precip type at 300 hours out then you probably need a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Instead of poking fun and lol messages for defense mechanisms..how about instead offering scientific ideas as to why it could be wrong..or could be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Halfway thru the month of Feb with 0 inches. Unless you're expecting 40 inches in 14 days..it's a concern if you are hoping Feb is snowy in SNE That map doesn't even say 0". It says 0 anomaly so it means normal snowfall through 2/15. That's if you even believe that type of product has any skill whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Instead of poking fun and lol messages for defense mechanisms..how about instead offering scientific ideas as to why it could be wrong..or could be correct? You want precip type at 300 hours. Sorry, the field isn't quite there yet with those types of predictions. We have no idea what an individual storm track would be but it's a more active look for us given the western ridging. No NAO block so there is always a risk of a storm cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 He should take a break from this thread....when you start analyzing the font someone posts vs the longwave pattern to determine the storm chances, you know you have gone on full tilt. Probably better suited for the banter thread. That's a very good pattern with a really amped poleward ridge. You guys know him better than anybody here...all this is just bait to get Will and Scott and Dendrite to give out more info on what looks to be a very nice long wave pattern. He's looking for crumbs/info to devour about any potential storminess that might accompany that potential pattern..which is a way of coping for him while we endure the next warm and rainy week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 He's looking for details nobody can give with high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm not looking for any details. All I am saying is that's not a great look for SNE snowstorms..It's more of an interior northeast pattern. That doesn't mean it can't or won't snow. Why is it, when anyone offers up some other ideas that aren't all snow all the time, that it's met with ridicule? I want it to snow..but that pattern while stormy, isn't ideal for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I am rooting for you, you deserve it as much if not more so than just about anyone here..you eduggs to dendrite and the nice fella out in lenox...hope you guys crush the second half of winter! Haha thanks. No one deserves anything, and you never wish ill on others but you know the deeper interior is craving an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 0 inches when it to shows 0 difference from climo,lol can't make it up . Hell I will take that,Feb 1-15 is my climo snowiest time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Monthly snowfall anomaly with last day 00z on the 15th? Maybe someone with accu pro can help me out. Is that the 30 days forecast ending 2/15 or just the first half of Feb? If it's the former then it completely missed a ho-hum 2-3 ft in the mid atlantic. And if I finish AN in that stretch I'll take it considering how putrid it has been and how bad the next week looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Maybe someone with accu pro can help me out. Is that the 30 days forecast ending 2/15 or just the first half of Feb? If it's the former then it completely missed a ho-hum 2-3 ft in the mid atlantic. And if I finish AN in that stretch I'll take it considering how putrid it has been and how bad the next week looks. With gridpoints that size of NY state. I'm sure it can depict finite details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Right....your thoughts HAD been working out....but it flipped, so I'd let it go. I mean, for the strict purposes of Cohen's theory, maybe, but the blockier forecasts in general...eh, another story. Its like the snowier outlooks......if it weren't for that scooter streak, then they would be perfect up here. But it happened, so they are not. Same goes with the perturbing of the vortex....any other season, the amount of warming that we have had heretofore would have knocked the PV for a loop, but it was unprecedentedly stout this year, so it hasn't. I'm not trying to be a dick, but it gets muddy really quickly when you qualify everything that takes place. I agree. This current wave-1 attack which has reached near record daily highs in terms of a amplitude would have resulted in an official event already in virtually every other season. The flux pulse is a response from the conducive tropospheric pattern for enhancing planetary wave-1 earlier in the month. Nevertheless, I'm becoming more convinced the Cohen is correct in that this current wave-1 activity is the beginning of a protracted displacement / SSW event. 10hpa 60N-90N temperatures are now forecasted to continue rising sharply in the D 7-10 period, in conjunction with the strongest EP flux [by far] of the season thus far. Extremely robust energy transfer progged to developed beyond D7, and this is likely in response to the wave-1 displacement which is beginning right now. I wouldn't lock in any major SSW yet, but I think a minor SSW is a lock, and it's becoming more probable that a displacement event SSW has begun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm not looking for any details. All I am saying is that's not a great look for SNE snowstorms..It's more of an interior northeast pattern. That doesn't mean it can't or won't snow. Why is it, when anyone offers up some other ideas that aren't all snow all the time, that it's met with ridicule? I want it to snow..but that pattern while stormy, isn't ideal for SNE. That wasn't the reason it was criticized. It was criticized because you made a blanket statement about how the look was good for State College PA to Binghamton, NY to BTV and not good for SNE when an overwhelming majority of the analog patterns to the one depicted show that SNE does very well on the whole. I'd recommend just staying in the shorter term threads if you can't handle precip type uncertainties and exact storm tracks at 10+ days out. It's very possible we don't do well in that pattern...we could get some bad breaks. It's also possible the pattern doesn't develop as advertised and it ends up a bit different. There's a lot of variables that go into 11-15 day forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 That wasn't the reason it was criticized. It was criticized because you made a blanket statement about how the look was good for State College PA to Binghamton, NY to BTV and not good for SNE when an overwhelming majority of the analog patterns to the one depicted show that SNE does very well on the whole. I'd recommend just staying in the shorter term threads if you can't handle precip type uncertainties and exact storm tracks at 10+ days out. It's very possible we don't do well in that pattern...we could get some bad breaks. It's also possible the pattern doesn't develop as advertised and it ends up a bit different. There's a lot of variables that go into 11-15 day forecasts. Well I won't be going by your recommendation rest assured. But I'm glad we can agree that it's not a great look for SNE as modeled . Hopefully we can shift long wave pattern a bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I agree. This current wave-1 attack which has reached near record daily highs in terms of a amplitude would have resulted in an official event already in virtually every other season. The flux pulse is a response from the conducive tropospheric pattern for enhancing planetary wave-1 earlier in the month. Nevertheless, I'm becoming more convinced the Cohen is correct in that this current wave-1 activity is the beginning of a protracted displacement / SSW event. 10hpa 60N-90N temperatures are now forecasted to continue rising sharply in the D 7-10 period, in conjunction with the strongest EP flux [by far] of the season thus far. Extremely robust energy transfer progged to developed beyond D7, and this is likely in response to the wave-1 displacement which is beginning right now. I wouldn't lock in any major SSW yet, but I think a minor SSW is a lock, and it's becoming more probable that a displacement event SSW has begun now. We displace, and soon enough, we shall snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Well I won't be going by your recommendation rest assured. But I'm glad we can agree that it's not a great look for SNE as modeled . Hopefully we can shift long wave pattern a bit east I think you just put words in his mouth he didn't say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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