February Pattern Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

The AO domain is far reaching. -4SD can have a small impact in the eastern U.S. If the H5 pattern is such.

So aren't blizzards.

Last I checked, areas of SNE saw over a 1', and the largest city in the region verified warning in the blizzard.....where in sne did that occur in PD I and Feb 2010??

 

What's 12-15" between weenies.

[Heisy]

Is all your snow gone?

 

Halfway there, maybe 3/5 there. 

[Ginx snewx]

The AO domain is far reaching. -4SD can have a small impact in the eastern U.S. If the H5 pattern is such.

no doubt in my mind that the NESIS 4 event was an outcome derived from the extreme -AO this time. Happens when the pattern relaxes frequently. Blocked flow for sure. I have to agree with Ray

[40/70 Benchmark]

Persistence wasn't a big reason for my thoughts. Nor should a 929 low in Iceland validate extreme blocking.

I wasn't referring to you.

 

We still have some action in the stratosphere to get through, so lets see what happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

In my mind, if you forecast blocking, and you get blocking....I don't care if Vince Willfork's fat a$$ takes to an air balloon.....its blocking.

Cohen's research is one of several indicators that I employed to reach my conclusion.

 

I called for an NAO/AO slightly below neutral in the D-M aggregate,, and we are only half way home.

[ORH_wxman]

Who called for epic blocking?

I guess -4 SD AO doesn't do it for you.

Persistence forecasting works until it doesn't.

Lol you replied to me while using 2010 as an example. You're all over the map here.

Nobody argued for persistence. Not sure where that idea came from. If you have read any of my posts I have consistently said I expect blocking to return in February. Hopefully that thinking is correct.

A transient big block, while impressive at its peak, certainly isn't analogous to the previously mentioned 2010.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Lol you replied to me while using 2010 as an example. You're all over the map here.

Nobody argued for persistence. Not sure where that idea came from. If you have read any of my posts I have consistently said I expect blocking to return in February. Hopefully that thinking is correct.

A transient big block, while impressive at its peak, certainly isn't analogous to the previously mentioned 2010.

I was being facetious, as you were when you compared that blizzard to PD I and Feb 10, which completely whiffed the region (PD I dropped up to 5" in SW CT).

Area of sne had over 1', and Boston verified warning.

Obviously I am not comparing this season to 2010.

If you read my outlook, which I have mentioned 323,678 times, then you would know that.

 

I could have sworn you had mentioned that given the past few seasons, you were going with +NAO/AO by default., unless given a reason not to.

[ORH_wxman]

I could have sworn you had mentioned that given the past few seasons, you were going with +NAO/AO by default., unless given a reason not to.

No not the AO. Though I did mention that I was leery of big NAO blocking since we've had trouble establishing it ever since the big North Atlantic shift in spring 2013.

We haven't been able to sustain anything there since that time. Whatever the reason is (I'm not sure), it raises Scooter caution flags for big NAO blocking. I'm hoping that the block we got earlier this month is the first shot across the bow in breaking that tendency.

[Damage In Tolland]

Our forum this winter has turned into another region . Snowy winters bring out the best in us. Ratters brung out the worst. Feb had better deliver .. Otherwise anger and emotions vested in wx are going to really take hold

[40/70 Benchmark]

Our forum this winter has turned into another region . Snowy winters bring out the best in us. Ratters brung out the worst. Feb had better deliver .. Otherwise anger and emotions vested in wx are going to really take hold

I'm not angry.

Just breaking balls while debating.

 

I thought you said locking in general, Will.

I still think we'll see some NAO blocking, but not a monster negative NAO winter, no.

[CoastalWx]

no doubt in my mind that the NESIS 4 event was an outcome derived from the extreme -AO this time. Happens when the pattern relaxes frequently. Blocked flow for sure. I have to agree with Ray

You can thank the PNA. That came at a time the AO was raging positive.

[CoastalWx]

We have had a record or near record cold stratosphere with a +QBO. That has helped lock in the vortex since last year and the reason why my thoughts were working out until January when we had a massive tropospheric forcing for a -AO. There has been a hangover since, with some wave 1 pattern forcing onto the stratosphere. That had helped produced a warming (believe it's called Canadian warming), but these happen quite often. Given the fact that ninos tend to bias -AO, I'm not surprised at the pattern we are seeing. And oh, this will be aided by MJO.

[Ginx snewx]

You can thank the PNA. That came at a time the AO was raging positive.

Thank the process Heather

[CoastalWx]

Thank the process Heather

It really was a s/w that rode the ridge.

[Ginx snewx]

It really was a s/w that rode the ridge.

The gun was loaded a week before. Phase change well advertised.

[CoastalWx]

Meh. It had nothing to do with it. S/W's don't care about a ridge in Siberia.

[Ginx snewx]

You could argue another phase change event with the Plains Blizzard as teleconnections again begin to flip. Question is do we do a version of last week on the east coast as they flip once again. Euro Ens say we do in some shape or form. Zonal flow it isnt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We have had a record or near record cold stratosphere with a +QBO. That has helped lock in the vortex since last year and the reason why my thoughts were working out until January when we had a massive tropospheric forcing for a -AO. There has been a hangover since, with some wave 1 pattern forcing onto the stratosphere. That had helped produced a warming (believe it's called Canadian warming), but these happen quite often. Given the fact that ninos tend to bias -AO, I'm not surprised at the pattern we are seeing. And oh, this will be aided by MJO.

Right....your thoughts HAD been working out....but it flipped, so I'd let it go.

I mean, for the strict purposes of Cohen's theory, maybe, but the blockier forecasts in general...eh, another story.

Its like the snowier outlooks......if it weren't for that scooter streak, then they would be perfect up here.

But it happened, so they are not.

 

Same goes with the perturbing of the vortex....any other season, the amount of warming that we have had heretofore would have knocked the PV for a loop, but it was unprecedentedly stout this year, so it hasn't.

I'm not trying to be a dick, but it gets muddy really quickly when you qualify everything that takes place.

[ORH_wxman]

Right....your thoughts HAD been working out....but it flipped, so I'd let it go.

I mean, for the strict purposes of Cohen's theory, maybe, but the blockier forecasts in general...eh, another story.

Its like the snowier outlooks......if it weren't for that scooter streak, then they would be perfect up here.

But it happened, so they are not.

 

Same goes with the perturbing of the vortex....any other season, the amount of warming that we have had heretofore would have knocked the PV for a loop, but it was unprecedentedly stout this year, so it hasn't.

I'm not trying to be a dick, but it gets muddy really quickly when you qualify everything that takes place.

 

 

Probably a big reason why LR forecasting is so inaccurate. There's about a million things that "can go wrong" to screw it up. Some of them we probably are not even aware of.

[CoastalWx]

Right....your thoughts HAD been working out....but it flipped, so I'd let it go.

I mean, for the strict purposes of Cohen's theory, maybe, but the blockier forecasts in general...eh, another story.

Its like the snowier outlooks......if it weren't for that scooter streak, then they would be perfect up here.

But it happened, so they are not.

 

Same goes with the perturbing of the vortex....any other season, the amount of warming that we have had heretofore would have knocked the PV for a loop, but it was unprecedentedly stout this year, so it hasn't.

I'm not trying to be a dick, but it gets muddy really quickly when you qualify everything that takes place.

 

My point to that, is the reason why it flipped was from the troposphere. Thank God it did because January could have been ugly. I'm not saying else, but that. Has absolutely zero to do with stratosphere.

[CoastalWx]

Ray if you recall, I said if we see anything.... it would probably be in February regarding any SSW. I also said I think that is highly overrated and that the Pacific was more important to me. I stand by that. I have no magic voodoo...no PV model run by a super computer in my basement...just models and my own educated guess.

[Ginx snewx]

The stretching of the PV had everything to do with the pattern flip from Dec.It can have as cold a center as ever seen but it's orientation has a lot to do with sensible weather. The Kara Ridge effectively forced a stretching of the PV.

[CoastalWx]

The stretching of the PV had everything to do with the pattern flip from Dec.It can have as cold a center as ever seen but it's orientation has a lot to do with sensible weather. The Kara Ridge effectively forced a stretching of the PV.

In wouldn't say the PV stretch was everything, but that was a bottom up forcing from the huge bubble of warmth forced into nrn Siberia from that low. Not sure if people realize it's been dam cold in nrn/ern Europe through China. That's your -AO helping, just not on our side as much.

[Ginx snewx]

In wouldn't say the PV stretch was everything, but that was a bottom up forcing from the huge bubble of warmth forced into nrn Siberia from that low. Not sure if people realize it's been dam cold in nrn/ern Europe through China. That's your -AO helping, just not on our side as much.

Parts of Asia are 15 BN

[SnowGoose69]

No not the AO. Though I did mention that I was leery of big NAO blocking since we've had trouble establishing it ever since the big North Atlantic shift in spring 2013.

We haven't been able to sustain anything there since that time. Whatever the reason is (I'm not sure), it raises Scooter caution flags for big NAO blocking. I'm hoping that the block we got earlier this month is the first shot across the bow in breaking that tendency.

 

I have just assumed we are transitioning into a cold AMO, albeit slowly.  Historically, cold AMOs have been pretty hostile towards -NAOs I believe.  The NATL tripole has largely sucked for a -NAO the last few years leading into winter.  I was relatively confident the last 3-4 winters by early October we were not going to see much of a -NAO unless the SSTs underwent a big change and usually it seems they don't in the NATL post September as much as they sometimes do in the NE PAC

[Ginx snewx]

In wouldn't say the PV stretch was everything, but that was a bottom up forcing from the huge bubble of warmth forced into nrn Siberia from that low. Not sure if people realize it's been dam cold in nrn/ern Europe through China. That's your -AO helping, just not on our side as much.

[SnowGoose69]

Ray if you recall, I said if we see anything.... it would probably be in February regarding any SSW. I also said I think that is highly overrated and that the Pacific was more important to me. I stand by that. I have no magic voodoo...no PV model run by a super computer in my basement...just models and my own educated guess.

 

I'm not sure if a SSW occurring much later than 2/5- 2/10 can really be too helpful.  I do think there was one in February 89 which more or less much froze the Plains and Midwest almost until April.  This was pretty much the only quadrant of the country that saw nothing as a result of that other than a brief cold down before the 2/24 disaster.

[Ginx snewx]

I have just assumed we are transitioning into a cold AMO, albeit slowly. Historically, cold AMOs have been pretty hostile towards -NAOs I believe. The NATL tripole has largely sucked for a -NAO the last few years leading into winter. I was relatively confident the last 3-4 winters by early October we were not going to see much of a -NAO unless the SSTs underwent a big change and usually it seems they don't in the NATL post September as much as they sometimes do in the NE PAC

obviously judging by the last 4/5 years snow stats here in SNE the transient blocks,Positive PNA,negative EPO are pretty efficient. I was forever on the NAO train but we have found an efficient process lol. If Feb March comes in big again with NAO I am good with cold AMO

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure if a SSW occurring much later than 2/5- 2/10 can really be too helpful. I do think there was one in February 89 which more or less much froze the Plains and Midwest almost until April. This was pretty much the only quadrant of the country that saw nothing as a result of that other than a brief cold down before the 2/24 disaster.

The bottom line is we really could use a -NAO in March when cutoff seasons starts and temps rise. I'm not sure how we can change the +NAO look at the moment. I suppose a massive +PNA could help like last year.

[ORH_wxman]

obviously judging by the last 4/5 years snow stats here in SNE the transient blocks,Positive PNA,negative EPO are pretty efficient. I was forever on the NAO train but we have found an efficient process lol. If Feb March comes in big again with NAO I am good with cold AMO

 

 

We've been lucky for two winters ('13-'14 and last year) without much NAO blocking...we can survive better than the M.A. without it, though even they did pretty well in those years.

 

But a lot of times it doesn't work even with a good EPO region and adjacent areas...ala 1988-1989, 1980-1981, and even 1990-1991. I'm not one to want to rely on it and gamble the PNA up to EPO region will save us. We were probably lucky that the years were positive ENSO or we would have been screwed.