ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Hmm read back, Your boy reading a control run? Anything is possible day 12 tool Yeah that was a nice mini-meltdown...going axe-smiley because someone told them a day 12 storm might be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah that was a nice mini-meltdown...going axe-smiley because someone told them a day 12 storm might be rain. I've been as level headed and even keeled as ever this winter. It's been easy when you expect rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Odds favor that vs snow at this point. Odds probably favor no storm at all when looking out past day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Gibbs thinks 8th is rainerI'll take my chances. Beats this boring schidt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah that was a nice mini-meltdown...going axe-smiley because someone told them a day 12 storm might be rain.he needs to link me up where I went wild. I like the ENS look, very familiar EPO dump. What happens after is TBD, to call for a rainer day 12 is so silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I've been as level headed and even keeled as ever this winter. It's been easy when you expect rat Then why the reaction when I said a day 12 storm could be rain? C'mon man...tell me you've been on the forums for over a decade and at least learned that 12 days out, nobody can tell you if a storm will rain or snow with any accuracy minus a full-blown torch pattern (even then in February, any storm could still thread the needle in a torch pattern). Considering we're not in a torch pattern by that point, then I'd probably not get worked up over precip type at 288 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Then why the reaction when I said a day 12 storm could be rain? C'mon man...tell me you've been on the forums for over a decade and at least learned that 12 days out, nobody can tell you if a storm will rain or snow with any accuracy minus a full-blown torch pattern (even then in February, any storm could still thread the needle in a torch pattern). Considering we're not in a torch pattern by that point, then I'd probably not get worked up over precip type at 288 hours lead time. To post an axe means a melter now? Feb 8 is a long way out. Anything can happen. But you'd have to favor some type of negative outcome for NE from this lead time, based upon the winter so far. Until something breaks our way, it's hard to get overly excited. It gives us something to track and get excited for W/o a doubt. Some years you know everything g will break your way.. Until we see somethings break positive , I remain a bit skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 To post an axe means a melter now? Feb 8 is a long way out. Anything can happen. But you'd have to favor some type of negative outcome for NE from this lead time, based upon the winter so far. Until something breaks our way, it's hard to get overly excited. It gives us something to track and get excited for W/o a doubt. Some years you know everything g will break your way.. Until we see somethings break positive , I remain a bit skeptical Well I'm always skeptical of a storm threat at 288 hours. No argument there on that part alone. But my skepticism has nothing to do with the winter up to this point. It's based on the simple mathematical fact that numerical weather prediction isn't very accurate at that lead time. The long wave pattern looks good for potential snowstorms in our area in the 11-15. That is about all you can ask for at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well I'm always skeptical of a storm threat at 288 hours. No argument there on that part alone. But my skepticism has nothing to do with the winter up to this point. It's based on the simple mathematical fact that numerical weather prediction isn't very accurate at that lead time. The long wave pattern looks good for potential snowstorms in our area in the 11-15. That is about all you can ask for at this juncture. Will gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Pretty much took my clothes off in the tunnel as I watched it roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ray is making the thread as I type this. Nah....the event did evolve into the one of the most memorable east coast blizzards on record to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 He's already locked in at least a MECS....just a question of whether we all get 20"+. In all seriousness, it's a nice signal and even if nothing happens there, the pattern looks really strong after that....looks like it would sustain pretty easily beyond the end of the run. Make fun all you want. Its the only time in my life that I have ever done that it....I did it because I felt it to be the center piece of my outlook and it was. Sorry it didn't snow in Northfield, NH, and only a few inches in Natick. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Make fun all you want. Its the only time in my life that I ever did that it....I did it because i felt it to be the center piece of my outlook and it was. Hopefully you can start the thread 7+ days out before the next Feb '79 or Feb 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Make fun all you want. Its the only time in my life that I have ever done that it....I did it because I felt it to be the center piece of my outlook and it was. Sorry it didn't snow in Northfield, NH, and only a few inches in Natick. jk It was a pretty great storm for a lot of forum members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I even mentioned this storm track could be close by this morning and storms can go anywhere from overhead to offshore. That doesn't mean snow, but I'll take a track best east coast any time. C'mon Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Hopefully you can start the thread 7+ days out before the next Feb '79 or Feb 5, 2010 Hopefully you can post all fall about how your skeptical of blocking before the next 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 As a NE outsider, reading you guys bicker back and forth can be freaking hilarious....really entertaining. Ensembles look good. Hopefully I'll be able to storm chase to NE sometime in Feb for the 3rd time in 4 years. Just maybe this time I won't miss the jackpot area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 As a NE outsider, reading you guys bicker back and forth can be freaking hilarious....really entertaining. Ensembles look good. Hopefully I'll be able to storm chase to NE sometime in Feb for the 3rd time in 4 years. Just maybe this time I won't miss the jackpot area. All in good fun. Will is one of the best mets there are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 All in good fun. Will is one of the best mets there are. Oh I know, cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Epic Blizzards in Nova Scotia and Cali to Nebraska Iowa MN. Nice, active is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 As a NE outsider, reading you guys bicker back and forth can be freaking hilarious....really entertaining. Ensembles look good. Hopefully I'll be able to storm chase to NE sometime in Feb for the 3rd time in 4 years. Just maybe this time I won't miss the jackpot area. Is all your snow gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Weeklies look great. We PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Hopefully you can post all fall about how your skeptical of blocking before the next 2010. Worked last winter and is working again this winter. Epic blocking is hard to get. That's different from getting merely a very solid pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Weeklies look great. We PNA. Maybe I can break double digit snowfall by 3/1. What an epic stretch this has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Weeklies look great. We PNA. Any signs of -NAO? That would really help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Any signs of -NAO? That would really help out. I'll text them to you. No -NAO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Maybe I can break double digit snowfall by 3/1. What an epic stretch this has been! 15" by 3/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Worked last winter and is working again this winter. Epic blocking is hard to get. That's different from getting merely a very solid pattern. Who called for epic blocking? I guess -4 SD AO doesn't do it for you. Persistence forecasting works until it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The AO domain is far reaching. -4SD can have a small impact in the eastern U.S. If the H5 pattern is such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Persistence wasn't a big reason for my thoughts. Nor should a 929 low in Iceland validate extreme blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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