CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well soon it will be Feb 1. Not sure if the actual Feb composite is of much help. Maybe january hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Never said that. I think there are a lot of relationships going on. Current -AO hangover from Big Iceland low. -AO tendency as GOAK trough retros etc. Just seems tough to isolate a warming event (not SSW) to Siberian snow in October. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Sign me up for the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Sign me up for the euro ensembles. yeah wow...that looks awesome after the sh**show next week. Feb 8-9 looks good for the 3 year anniversary...and then another chance Feb 11-12? That's really cold looking at the end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 yeah wow...that looks awesome after the sh**show next week. Feb 8-9 looks good for the 3 year anniversary...and then another chance Feb 11-12? That's really cold looking at the end too. I was thinking about how familiar that look is trough is perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 yeah wow...that looks awesome after the sh**show next week. Feb 8-9 looks good for the 3 year anniversary...and then another chance Feb 11-12? That's really cold looking at the end too. Pretty much took my clothes off in the tunnel as I watched it roll out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Pretty much took my clothes off in the tunnel as I watched it roll out. EPO dump remind you of something? Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 OK thanks. I saw this and was a bit concerned. I bet this signal mutes some in phase late 4 - 6, as you see it plotted in that Wheeler curve... It was robust ... ah, 'er' when it was first progged to go through phases 2-3-early 4, and it kept correcting toward a muted signal. The reason why is that same thing I've been hammering for years about the hemisphere's other teleconnectors, land, air and sea (so to speak..) being in constructive vs deconstructive interferences wrt to each individual correlated section of the chart. The warm phases for us, the 3-mid 6s are typically of a neutral PNAP to -PNAP pattern bias, that tends to cool the west and warm the east. The opposite of course being true for late 6 - 1 or 2... During an El Nino, a +PNA is correlated better. That would tend to mean a +PNAP, and ridge in the west and a trough in the east. Doing the "pattern math" that tends to cancel out - i.e., 'deconstructive wave interference' I suggest that is why the 50,000 foot appeal of the last 30 days of Wheeler shows robust wave strength on the other side of the diagram, while the wave appears mooshed toward the rim of incoherence on present side; it's because the wave is having trouble maintaining cohesion in a hostile environment. What all this really means ( for me ) in more practical terms, the MJO's ability to modulate the pattern is a bit handicapped do to the fact that those right side of wheeler phase spaces are opposing the atmospheric/hemispheric longer term signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The Feb 8th storm seems like it's almost unanimous now. Just need to make sure it doesn't cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Pretty much took my clothes off in the tunnel as I watched it roll out.wow you're not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The Feb 8th storm seems like it's almost unanimous now. Just need to make sure it doesn't cutRay is making the thread as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 wow you're not kidding.Pics or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Temps in the 11-15 day look a little AN over NE and the east coast on the EC ensembles. Perhaps an inland track?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Ray is making the thread as I type this. He's already locked in at least a MECS....just a question of whether we all get 20"+. In all seriousness, it's a nice signal and even if nothing happens there, the pattern looks really strong after that....looks like it would sustain pretty easily beyond the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Temps in the 11-15 day look a little AN over NE and the east coast on the EC ensembles. Perhaps an inland track?. We're close to the baroclinic zone D11-12...gets pretty cold after that though. I'm assuming that is what it is trying to display. But.. I mean -12C at 850mb on a D14 ensemble is pretty strong for a cold signal. So not sure where it's finding the warmth to offset it. It's not like D11-12 are actually furnaces. Perhaps the sfc isn't showing what 850 shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Gibbs thinks 8th is rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Gibbs thinks 8th is rainer Definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I was thinking about how familiar that look is trough is perfect Where's the trough axis? Hopefully not right over us but a little west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Where's the trough axis? Hopefully not right over us but a little west? It's a little west. Not quite as far east as last February...of course, we're talking the mean longwave look at D10-15, so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Where's the trough axis? Hopefully not right over us but a little west?west but mslp Anamoly is at the BM and the ENS members are few to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's a little west. Not quite as far east as last February...of course, we're talking the mean longwave look at D10-15, so take it FWIW. Sounds perfect. An axis over like the eastern Lakes is probably best anyway....also if it gets cold with like -20C to -30C H85 sitting north of like Toronto, maybe we can get that PV sucked into Ray's huge east coast storm this month. Edit: Just saw them and yeah that's what I'm looking for, ha. Wow. Keeps H85 temps near normal right on the coastline, with best negative anomalies over the Lakes. Baroclinic zone must be right on the coastline in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 west but mslp Anamoly is at the BM and the ENS members are few to cut. Where can you get the actual ENS members out to day 10-15? I can't only find the ENS members out to day 10 on wxbell unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Where can you get the actual ENS members out to day 10-15? I can't only find the ENS members out to day 10 on wxbell unless I'm missing something. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Definitely possible. Great news Ginx Gone Wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php I'm an idiot. I already looked at that page and thought it only went to day 10. I was just looking through the meteograms and stuff to find the day 10-15. Thx dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Great news Ginx Gone Wild Hmm read back, Your boy reading a control run? Anything is possible day 12 tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm an idiot. I already looked at that page and thought it only went to day 10. I was just looking through the meteograms and stuff to find the day 10-15. Thx dude. lots of spread at this range but as Scooter and Will said sign me up for that look. Notice how DIT didn't say they went wild, met kiss arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 lots of spread at this range but as Scooter and Will said sign me up for that look. Notice how DIT didn't say they went wild, met kiss arse They are saying decent chance of a rainer on the 8th is all i said. Odds favor that vs snow at this point. You were just getting a little crazy ..that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 They are saying decent chance of a rainer on the 8th is all i said. Odds favor that vs snow at this point. You were just getting a little crazy ..that's all sign me up? ,who said blizzard? As bad and dumb as your boy toy saying rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Great news Ginx Gone Wild Its like Day 10-12. Of course it could cut. But it could also be a HECS. It also could be mostly sunny without a storm within 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.