OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That should move south as precip falls into the drier layers and helps evaporatively cool the column. However, what happens after we reach that initial wet bulb temp will be critical. Do we hold serve, tickle south, or move north with that 0oC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 OVC and 27 here. This is low level cold that has slipped down the Champlain/Upper Hudson Valley on the ageo flow. But just south and higher in elevation we see mid/upper 30's in the Catskills region. So I expect FZRA to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 39F and raw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 My front steps are a death trap. 27.3 with freezing miserymist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 My front steps are a death trap. 27.3 with freezing miserymist. miserymist loves company, 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Probably a good plot to look at as this system moves in. Max wet bulb in the lowest 400 mb (so covering that torchy 925 mb layer). mxwb.gif I suspect the lowest levels will zr for awhile but when the omega max moves over, perhaps a different story. 31/31 here. Curiously, liquid on all sfc's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I suspect the lowest levels will zr for awhile but when the omega max moves over, perhaps a different story I'm not thrilled with this FZDZ this morning. Throw some -SN on top of that and it's going to be a slick drive home from my mid shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm not thrilled with this FZDZ this morning. Throw some -SN on top of that and it's going to be a slick drive home from my mid shift. at this point ... i visualize an outlined area roughly n of hfd to bed and points nw flipping to heavy parachutes. went out on a limb and figured warning (nearing) in those area; i would be surprised if that doesn't happen. noticing rad returns trying to curl - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 at this point ... i visualize an outlined area roughly n of hfd to bed and points nw flipping to heavy parachutes. went out on a limb and figured warning (nearing) in those area; i would be surprised if that doesn't happen. noticing rad returns trying to curl - HRRR is really close to hitting that area you mention, and as I mentioned in the storm discussion thread it's also one of the warmer pieces of guidance right now. So the fact that it nearly hits with warning criteria in northern Worcester County is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 25 degrees and has been FZDZ for several hours now. Glazing everything. Our flag is more stiff than Ekster before an EML event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 As expected, it sucks down here. No evidence of any snow. But that might just be somewhat melted beneath the zr. But I think that's a pretty minor concern as it's near the freezing mark (31.7). Raining pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looking at the KBOX melting layer, it is contracting ever so slightly in the last hour. As expected as precip rates try and overcome some of the warmth aloft. The western edge especially is a little more flat than the eastern side, as that's where the strongest lift is in the developing deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Radar is suggesting anyway that freezing is within 1000 feet of the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Snow mixing in now. 31.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Keep busting the drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Light snow up here this morning with a skim dusting at the mountain. Hoping the 6z RGEM which bumped us up to a whopping 2" is correct, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sounds like rain out there. Heading to charlemont, curious what is doing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sounds like rain out there. Heading to charlemont, curious what is doing there. If it sounds like rain and is wet like rain, it probably is rain. Some fat flakes mixed in but I'm guessing I'll see no accummulation from this. I'm checking out the new house at 10:00. At least it can't be any worse in the snow department than it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I was excited for an over-performer. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sounding is up to about 600 mb right now. We're not actually above freezing anywhere in that layer over GYX. But we are unsaturated above 850 mb. Nice drizzle sounding for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I was excited for an over-performer. Oh well. EC, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sleet sleet prob Frz rain too. No sign of snow yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 We rain, oh the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I was expecting mostly snow. Looking at radar there still is time. Boy the last couple of years are conditioning me to expect underperformers. Congrats dendrites hasn't been true for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 not even raining that hard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nice coastal front showing up on the CC product this morning. 30 at PWM, 42 at buoy 44007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 not even raining that hard lol Advisory cancel? Save face; lift it now before everyone wakes up (j/k, I suspect it might be snowing somewhere). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Snowing here now and 31. Big wet flakes with about 1/4 inch now on deck. Obviously had a freezing rain for the first few hours as I slept and the heavier precip now managed to cool the column. As expected, it sucks down here. No evidence of any snow. But that might just be somewhat melted beneath the zr. But I think that's a pretty minor concern as it's near the freezing mark (31.7). Raining pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 HRRR switching over ORH hills to snow between 9-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 HRRR switching over ORH hills to snow between 9-10am. hrrr_ref_neng_5.png If it does it could be sweet there. Look at that radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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