HWY316wx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is colder and looks like juicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The weather channel gave this a name, you know it's go time now!! All in for my inch! The 18z GFS says we get not 1 flake, sleet pellet, or raindrop tomorrow. Only clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18z GFS says we get not 1 flake, sleet pellet, or raindrop tomorrow. Only clouds. Don't we ride the short range models at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 18z GFS says we get not 1 flake, sleet pellet, or raindrop tomorrow. Only clouds.You won't, I'm in the sweet spot! That no winter 11/12 analog you like to preach, could be in jeopardy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 considering how dry the nam has been with this system, it's an improvement. I still feel like the models are too warm. Nam for example has temps right at freezing near gainesville with a dewpoint in the low to mid teens when precip starts yet temps don't really respond after it starts. Of course we have to actually have enough precip to actually do the job but assuming we do, tenps should fall back to around 28 or 29 and stay there through the night. Afterwards, light freezing precipitations could fall much of the night. What i've been wondering about is if we are still at freezing thursday morning when more appreciable precip moves back in. We won't have a fresh influx of cold air so latent heat release would cause a rise in temps but could mean a few more hours of light freezing rain thursday morning and making for some slick conditions. Lookout, How do you think I'll fare on the NW side of Cumming? Given everything I've seen, I'm literally right on the line between almost no accumulation and a half inch or so. Is it gonna be a very fine line in Forsyth County from north to south do you think? I'm about 5 miles south of Dawson. I get off work at 3 so hoping it's not too bad at that time but I'm fearing it could be. BTW as a side note, things will definitely not have a hard time accumulating if it does in fact get down to freezing during precip. Yesterday my high was only 31.0, this morning it was 16.6, today's high only 36.1 and now down to 32.6, so everything is basically frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't we ride the short range models at this point?Yessir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This one is pretty close to tomorrow. And I had a 5 hour communte to go 15 miles. Caught everyone by surprise. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20101215_ice_event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eight hours of driving and then a two hour, 6 mile walk... Let's not have that happen again please. I think temps will be rebounding as soon as the precip lightens up or stops so we shouldn't have too much to worry about.I bailed after 6 hours, walked 11 miles, and caught an ATV ride for the last 14. What a nightmare. Thankfully I don't see a repeat in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This one is pretty close to tomorrow. And I had a 5 hour communte to go 15 miles. Caught everyone by surprise. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20101215_ice_event Tomorrow does have the same feel. This will come rolling in about the same time of day, iirc. And we have been busting to the low side on temps so getting much above freezing is unlikely. (Hit 33 today, of a forecast 39...) Cherokee was ground 0 for that mess, a bunch of us abandoned our cars and walked home in the dark that night. FFC is kind of warning but as always, there's so much paranoia about busting (for economic reasons or other, I have no idea why they do it). As it stands, the northern metro counties are free to start school in the morning, but if the precip starts freezing on the roads midday (likely) then the schools will close early, drivers will leave work, and we'll do this whole dance again that we seem destined to repeat on a regular basis. Such is life on the blade's edge in the land of never-quite-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Such is life on the blade's edge in the land of never-quite-winter. However, we do live in the North Georgia rain forest. We do have that going for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Mesoscale models today push the moisture as far east as Hampton Roads which is a pleasant surprise. ECMWF (if anyone tracks it for events 24 hrs out lol) even gives me 1 inch of snow. Snow should move in after sunset with temps slightly under 32. Ground (at least the top layer) should be pretty much frozen after 2 days with sub 32 highs and upper teens lows. Conditions are ideal for accumulation if we indeed get the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Tomorrow does have the same feel. This will come rolling in about the same time of day, iirc. And we have been busting to the low side on temps so getting much above freezing is unlikely. (Hit 33 today, of a forecast 39...) Cherokee was ground 0 for that mess, a bunch of us abandoned our cars and walked home in the dark that night. FFC is kind of warning but as always, there's so much paranoia about busting (for economic reasons or other, I have no idea why they do it). As it stands, the northern metro counties are free to start school in the morning, but if the precip starts freezing on the roads midday (likely) then the schools will close early, drivers will leave work, and we'll do this whole dance again that we seem destined to repeat on a regular basis. Such is life on the blade's edge in the land of never-quite-winter. I doubt this will be anything like Jan 2014 when everything froze almost instantly. I think temps were in the mid 20s while the snow was falling. Most areas around Atlanta will be near 40-45 tomorrow. Up near your area, it may only reach the upper 30s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I doubt this will be anything like Jan 2014 when everything froze almost instantly. I think temps were in the mid 20s while the snow was falling. Most areas around Atlanta will be near 40-45 tomorrow. Up near your area, it may only reach the upper 30s though. We were talking about 12/15/2010, not '14. 2010 was literally a rain event that started in the afternoon and it was so cold at the surface that the roads were shellacked in minutes. Scroll up and see the link I replied to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We were talking about 12/15/2010, not '14. 2010 was literally a rain event that started in the afternoon and it was so cold at the surface that the roads were shellacked in minutes. Scroll up and see the link I replied to. It sounds like your area wasn't prepared in 2010. Hopefully they will be a little more proactive this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Brad P's Vlog on tomorrow's event: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1010092109063245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It was bad. We were doing rescued by driving in the grass - roads were nasty. Worried it will be similar tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It was bad. We were doing rescued by driving in the grass - roads were nasty. Worried it will be similar tomorrow. This has been in the back of my mind for the last day or two. Hopefully it won't but this has a bust wriiten all over it if the precip gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We were talking about 12/15/2010, not '14. 2010 was literally a rain event that started in the afternoon and it was so cold at the surface that the roads were shellacked in minutes. Scroll up and see the link I replied to. I wonder if this storm is similar in setup. I remember December '10 I think we were on our way to a deep -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I say we just continue this thread as the OBS considering the GA crowd can be counted on 2 hands these days. 30.5° 14° That low DP spells trouble to me. With the lack of abundant moisture available, I'd imagine its going to take most of it just to saturate the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I say we just continue this thread as the OBS considering the GA crowd can be counted on 2 hands these days. 30.5° 14° That low DP spells trouble to me. With the lack of abundant moisture available, I'd imagine its going to take most of it just to saturate the column. This has potential to fubar traffic in ATL tomorrrow. Might not but very well could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 im at 30/1 temp/DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 im at 30/1 temp/DP Wow. Thats crazy. I wonder why your DP is so much lower than everywhere else in GA ? DP is 14 in Cartersville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I say we just continue this thread as the OBS considering the GA crowd can be counted on 2 hands these days. 30.5° 14° That low DP spells trouble to me. With the lack of abundant moisture available, I'd imagine its going to take most of it just to saturate the column. Can we do this or do we have to start an OBS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am at 28 / -3... A little crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 not expecting much for my area, but you never know, so I will be monitoring in the morning. Temp: 30 / DP: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm sitting at 28/12 in Pickens (upstate SC) looking to see up to an inch tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am at 28 / -3... A little crazy.That's wrong according to Snowstorm2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phobos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm just a lurker with little to no meteorological knowledge, but love all things weather! Braselton, GA 29F / 15 DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:30114.1.99999?sp=KGACANTO15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 30.4 / 7.9 Lithia springs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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