Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

1/19-1/20 mid-week storm potential


Bsudweather

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 425
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

828 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016

GAZ004-190930-

/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.160120T0900Z-160121T0600Z/

WHITFIELD-

828 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM

DALTON TO ELLIJAY TO CLEVELAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN

MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY

MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

828 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016

GAZ005>009-015-016-190930-

/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.160120T0900Z-160121T0600Z/

/O.CON.KFFC.WC.Y.0001.160119T0600Z-160119T1500Z/

MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-LUMPKIN-WHITE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND

828 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST

TUESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA ARE INCLUDED IN THE

WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES AREAS

GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DALTON TO ELLIJAY TO

CLEVELAND.

* TIMING...1 AM TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 4 AM

WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 5 TO MINUS 5 DEGREES DUE TO

TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS...AND NORTHWEST

WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUST.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OR 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUST TO 15 MPH.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED

AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* IMPACTS...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES CAN LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND

HYPOTHERMIA IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. FOR THE WINTER

STORM WATCH...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN

MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY

MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

post-6398-0-59335500-1453167743_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not expecting any wintry precip at all from either the Wed storm or the Fri storm. It's just how it goes for the I-20 corridor. Back in the old days, it wasn't so difficult to get snow events this far south but times have changed. Every winter we would get at least a dusting of snow. 3 out of the last 4 winters all we've had is a few flakes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't this is a clipper. Not sure what it is but not a clipper.

This looks like a classic case of the Georgia and WNC mountains chewing up all the moisture with down slopping taking care of the rest. I do not think it will deliver for the upstate, unless we see the leeward cycloogenesis over the I-26 corridor and east, which is not uncommon. I think the models are picking up on that, thus the moisture going poof at the state line. Always happens.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those maps look off?? It is a more of West to East trajectory, I thought for Wed storm? I could be wrong

It is west to east, those maps are probably playing tricks on your eyes. GFS has something similar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From RAH:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE STEADILY EAST
INTO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...CROSSING THE SE U.S. AND THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED
TO WRING MOST OF ITS MOISTURE OUT OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BUT THE LATEST RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT A
DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE SURVIVING THE TRIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE 850-400MB LAYER. LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN A RESULT OF MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS MAY SQUEEZE A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
TIMING FAVORS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND LOCATIONS FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE
GRASS OR ROAD SURFACES THOUGH A STEADY PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR UP
TO AN HOUR MAY CREATE A DUSTING IN SPOTS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY TRAFFIC
COMPACTS THE SNOW.

 

Bolded - Sound familiar
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FFC saying the ATL metro area(northern suburbs) and NGA looking good for something frozen from this little wave and issuing an Advisory.

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
..CHALLENGING SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH FIRST BIG CHANCE AT WINTRY
PRECIP...




SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE EASTWARD...KEEPING THE DRY AND CHILLY
AIR MASS OVER THE STATE /SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/. A MODEST
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE STATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...DAMPENING SOMEWHAT. AS THE COLUMN SATURATES...EXPECT
THERMODYNAMIC COOLING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOW. AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT INITIAL LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN /WPC PRECIP PROBS FOR
FREEZING RAIN ARE IMPRESSIVE
/. NORTH GEORGIA COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW PTYPE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. COLD ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL PRIME THE AREA TO SEE EARLY IMPACTS...AND HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA AND EXPANDED
IT...ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY. SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE...AND STILL EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES..
.AND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTA SUBURBS
.

THERE STILL REMAINS SEVERAL KEY QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
FORECAST. MODELS TEND TO BE TOO QUICK TO MODIFY THE
ENVIRONMENT...WARMING TEMPERATURES FASTER THAN REALITY. AS A
RESULT...THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN MAY BE A LITTLE
FAST. HAVE TRIED TO ACCOMMODATE THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER
BIG QUESTION IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIP. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NON-ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH
AS I-20.


STAY ALERT TO THE CHANGING FORECAST...AS IT IS SURE TO EVOLVE AS
THIS EVENT APPROACHES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really think this one is going to surprise a lot of folks.  Everyone focusing on the biggie later in the week...

 

Surface temps have been ridiculously cold..this one could be a light event with high impacts

yea, an hr under decent returns will cause some issues.  snow wont have a problem sticking that's for sure. classic setup that drops a suprise dusting to .5"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...