1/19-1/20 mid-week storm potential

[franklin NCwx]

Right but if the SW mtns can wring out that much I don't see why the NW mtns wouldn't either.

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hopefully it hangs on a little longer than currently shown.

[Bsudweather]

Hard to believe upstate gets up to an inch in that setup. But I've seen upstate get more snow out of storms coming from Pac just about as much as gulf Lows. Use to I remember getting 4-5" from clippers on reg basis. So it can happen.

[Bsudweather]

GFS is running let's see where it goes. Hopefully we get a good run for both systems this one and the late week one.

[mackerel_sky]

GFS is running let's see where it goes. Hopefully we get a good run for both systems this one and the late week one.

Need it to trend south, like most othe models!

[Bsudweather]

The High looks to be in a great position at hr66 pushing cold in before QPF gets here. Not sure if the Low is further south or not looks to be about same as 12z run.

[Bsudweather]

Its still looking like a light event could happen Wed night.

[ncstatered21]

Its still looking like a light event could happen Wed night.

Always good to have SOMETHING to look forward to during the work week.

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[Bsudweather]

Everyone is so caught up in late week storm that they forgetting about this light potential Wed

[mackerel_sky]

Everyone is so caught up in late week storm that they forgetting about this light potential Wed[/quote

Yeah, each run creeps moisture more and more east! I'm more excited for Wednesday for seeing a flake or pellet imby, than for Friday]

[Lookout]

I'm thinking there is a decent shot of some widespread light snow/sleet...maybe an an inch or two, for the northern 3rd of georgia with this system with best chance in the mountains of course, as well as extreme northeast alabama/eastern tn.  It's hard to gauge how much in northern alabama and central tn as it's a bit warmer aloft and it could be more of a sleet or freezing rain deal there but eastern TN looks good.

 

The main negatives are timing and the system/precip is expected to weaken with time so areas further east probably won't get much. But focusing on north ga, this system has some positives in terms of cold air. Although the timing sucks, Wed morning starts off very cold with temps in the 20s with dewpoints in the single digits to around zero...but  Temps are a challenge...since as we all know models don't do very well with evap cooling effects...however due to the light amounts, it might not be enough to take full advantage and wetbulb down completely.   Even so, it keeps temps at or below freezing all day from rome to gainesville to clayton to toccoa.  As far as soundings go, gfs is only showing a very thin warm layer around 850mb..barely above 0c over these northern areas..so this is a mostly snow with maybe a snow/sleet mix ...from rome to gainesville to toccoa...with as much as 0.30 falling in northwest ga, and 0.10 to maybe 0.15 over northeast sections.

 

Further south in atlanta and athens, it's not as promising.  They too start in the 20s/dewpoints near 0 but lighter precip,  later arrival of precip and warmer air aloft probably keep this from being anything noteworthy.  Other than a brief period where it could start as sleet or maybe even light snow, it quickly goes to rain per soundings.

 

But back to the areas north, mainly northeast georgia from dawsonville over to tocoa/mountains,  low levels look pretty saturated wed night...and indeed the gfs shows some very light amounts overnight at times.  Based on the fact that the gfs is probably a bit too warm by 1 to 3 degrees based on its likely underestimated evap cooling earlier in the day, much of this area might see some freezing drizzle over night. Just at face value, the gfs has temps right at or slightly below freezing over the northeast corner regardless through 12z before everyone warms into the 40s thursday. Nothing major or maybe even worth noting, just pointing it out.

 

uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well. Overall, although it probably won't be a big deal, it's pretty complex in terms of what and how much falls over the far north. It will be interesting to see if it falls apart as fast as the models project. If it holds on just a little longer, it could actually be a decent little event for extreme northern areas...as is some 0.50 liquid amounts being shown just to the west along the tn/ga border on the gfs. uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well.If it's a bit heavier/holds on longer temps are likely to be a little colder too.  Also, if it holds on longer it obviously means it can make it more into the western carolinas.  Hopefully it will over produce as i'll be up that way wednesday. Which probably means it will weaken faster than shown

 

At the least most in this area should see some flakes falling which is better than nothing i suppose. Although when compared to what is likely to happen in the mid atlantic..it's down right depressing.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm thinking there is a decent shot of some widespread light snow/sleet...maybe an an inch or two, for the northern 3rd of georgia with this system with best chance in the mountains of course, as well as extreme northeast alabama/eastern tn.  It's hard to gauge how much in northern alabama and central tn as it's a bit warmer aloft and it could be more of a sleet or freezing rain deal there but eastern TN looks good.

 

The main negatives are timing and the system/precip is expected to weaken with time so areas further east probably won't get much. But focusing on north ga, this system has some positives in terms of cold air. Although the timing sucks, Wed morning starts off very cold with temps in the 20s with dewpoints in the single digits to around zero...but  Temps are a challenge...since as we all know models don't do very well with evap cooling effects...however due to the light amounts, it might not be enough to take full advantage and wetbulb down completely.   Even so, it keeps temps at or below freezing all day from rome to gainesville to clayton to toccoa.  As far as soundings go, gfs is only showing a very thin warm layer around 850mb..barely above 0c over these northern areas..so this is a mostly snow with maybe a snow/sleet mix ...from rome to gainesville to toccoa...with as much as 0.30 falling in northwest ga, and 0.10 to maybe 0.15 over northeast sections.

 

Further south in atlanta and athens, it's not as promising.  They too start in the 20s/dewpoints near 0 but lighter precip,  later arrival of precip and warmer air aloft probably keep this from being anything noteworthy.  Other than a brief period where it could start as sleet or maybe even light snow, it quickly goes to rain per soundings.

 

But back to the areas north, mainly northeast georgia from dawsonville over to tocoa/mountains,  low levels look pretty saturated wed night...and indeed the gfs shows some very light amounts overnight at times.  Based on the fact that the gfs is probably a bit too warm by 1 to 3 degrees based on its likely underestimated evap cooling earlier in the day, much of this area might see some freezing drizzle over night. Just at face value, the gfs has temps right at or slightly below freezing over the northeast corner regardless through 12z before everyone warms into the 40s thursday. Nothing major or maybe even worth noting, just pointing it out.

 

uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well. Overall, although it probably won't be a big deal, it's pretty complex in terms of what and how much falls over the far north. It will be interesting to see if it falls apart as fast as the models project. If it holds on just a little longer, it could actually be a decent little event for extreme northern areas...as is some 0.50 liquid amounts being shown just to the west along the tn/ga border on the gfs. uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well.If it's a bit heavier/holds on longer temps are likely to be a little colder too.  Also, if it holds on longer it obviously means it can make it more into the western carolinas.  Hopefully it will over produce as i'll be up that way wednesday. Which probably means it will weaken faster than shown

 

At the least most in this area should see some flakes falling which is better than nothing i suppose. Although when compared to what is likely to happen in the mid atlantic..it's down right depressing.

Yeah, most of the times, these things are a little stronger and make it a little farther than depicted by models. If it's later afternoon here, got to worry about temps warming up, but the air is extremely dry. We will see

[WXinCanton]

 

 

At the least most in this area should see some flakes falling which is better than nothing i suppose. Although when compared to what is likely to happen in the mid atlantic..it's down right depressing.

 

Lol!!   I'm going to stop looking at the weekend system.   Pretty much a nogo for GA.   I do think this system could have couple of suprises.    As you said TD's should be low, and hopefully we can get some good evaporational cooling.  I don't think it would be too crazy if I  to eek out .2 to .3 of QPF for MBY.   Of course that is close to best case scenario

[WXinCanton]

NAM is quick to Kill it off, the and has less QPF than the GFS or Euro

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Lol!! I'm going to stop looking at the weekend system. Pretty much a nogo for GA. I do think this system could have couple of suprises. As you said TD's should be low, and hopefully we can get some good evaporational cooling. I don't think it would be too crazy if I to eek out .2 to .3 of QPF for MBY. Of course that close to best case scenario

I think you could see a couple inches and I'm pretty sure you would take that

[MotoWeatherman]

I'm thinking there is a decent shot of some widespread light snow/sleet...maybe an an inch or two, for the northern 3rd of georgia with this system with best chance in the mountains of course, as well as extreme northeast alabama/eastern tn.  It's hard to gauge how much in northern alabama and central tn as it's a bit warmer aloft and it could be more of a sleet or freezing rain deal there but eastern TN looks good.

 

The main negatives are timing and the system/precip is expected to weaken with time so areas further east probably won't get much. But focusing on north ga, this system has some positives in terms of cold air. Although the timing sucks, Wed morning starts off very cold with temps in the 20s with dewpoints in the single digits to around zero...but  Temps are a challenge...since as we all know models don't do very well with evap cooling effects...however due to the light amounts, it might not be enough to take full advantage and wetbulb down completely.   Even so, it keeps temps at or below freezing all day from rome to gainesville to clayton to toccoa.  As far as soundings go, gfs is only showing a very thin warm layer around 850mb..barely above 0c over these northern areas..so this is a mostly snow with maybe a snow/sleet mix ...from rome to gainesville to toccoa...with as much as 0.30 falling in northwest ga, and 0.10 to maybe 0.15 over northeast sections.

 

Further south in atlanta and athens, it's not as promising.  They too start in the 20s/dewpoints near 0 but lighter precip,  later arrival of precip and warmer air aloft probably keep this from being anything noteworthy.  Other than a brief period where it could start as sleet or maybe even light snow, it quickly goes to rain per soundings.

 

But back to the areas north, mainly northeast georgia from dawsonville over to tocoa/mountains,  low levels look pretty saturated wed night...and indeed the gfs shows some very light amounts overnight at times.  Based on the fact that the gfs is probably a bit too warm by 1 to 3 degrees based on its likely underestimated evap cooling earlier in the day, much of this area might see some freezing drizzle over night. Just at face value, the gfs has temps right at or slightly below freezing over the northeast corner regardless through 12z before everyone warms into the 40s thursday. Nothing major or maybe even worth noting, just pointing it out.

 

uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well. Overall, although it probably won't be a big deal, it's pretty complex in terms of what and how much falls over the far north. It will be interesting to see if it falls apart as fast as the models project. If it holds on just a little longer, it could actually be a decent little event for extreme northern areas...as is some 0.50 liquid amounts being shown just to the west along the tn/ga border on the gfs. uk, canadian have slightly increased their totals with this sytem as well.If it's a bit heavier/holds on longer temps are likely to be a little colder too.  Also, if it holds on longer it obviously means it can make it more into the western carolinas.  Hopefully it will over produce as i'll be up that way wednesday. Which probably means it will weaken faster than shown

 

At the least most in this area should see some flakes falling which is better than nothing i suppose. Although when compared to what is likely to happen in the mid atlantic..it's down right depressing.

 

I'm grasping for anything up here.  12z GFS soundings for Dahlonega show solid snow at 18z Wed and possibly surviving as all snow.  Surface temps should drop below freezing with precip start not only thanks to a low surface DP but also the 925 temp is very cold at the start.  Colder than you would normally expect as 850's are warmer.  If the GFS verifies verabtim 1-2" looks good for my area northward.

Date: 54 hour AVN valid 18Z WED 20 JAN 16Station: 34.59,-83.92Latitude:   34.59Longitude: -83.92-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   212                                                                 SFC  966   492   0.3  -6.1  62  6.4  -2.0 183   3 276.2 276.6 273.0 283.1  2.50  2  950   623  -1.8  -7.1  67  5.3  -3.6 180   5 275.4 275.8 272.3 282.0  2.36  3  900  1050  -3.3  -5.3  87  1.9  -4.0 208  16 278.1 278.5 274.6 286.1  2.87  4  850  1506  -0.4  -0.6  98  0.2  -0.5 230  33 285.7 286.5 280.4 297.9  4.29  5  800  1990  -1.9  -2.1  99  0.2  -2.0 242  40 289.2 289.9 281.8 301.0  4.11  6  750  2502  -4.1  -4.4  98  0.2  -4.2 253  44 292.1 292.7 282.5 302.9  3.69  7  700  3044  -6.9  -7.2  98  0.3  -7.1 259  45 294.8 295.4 283.1 304.3  3.18  8  650  3619 -10.2 -10.4  98  0.2 -10.3 262  46 297.4 297.9 283.6 305.5  2.66  9  600  4231 -14.0 -14.1  99  0.1 -14.1 263  50 299.9 300.3 284.0 306.5  2.13 10  550  4886 -18.5 -18.6  99  0.1 -18.5 263  52 302.2 302.5 284.3 307.3  1.61 11  500  5590 -23.7 -23.8  99  0.1 -23.7 262  53 304.1 304.3 284.5 307.8  1.12 12  450  6350 -29.8 -29.9  99  0.1 -29.9 259  55 305.7 305.9 284.6 308.1  0.71 13  400  7177 -36.9 -37.1  99  0.1 -37.0 254  52 307.0 307.1 284.7 308.4  0.40 14  350  8086 -43.6 -48.3  60  4.7 -43.9 259  58 309.9 309.9 285.5 310.4  0.14 15  300  9116 -46.1 -62.0  15 15.9 -46.5 267  73 320.4 320.4 288.9 320.5  0.03 16  250 10320 -48.9 -67.5  10 18.7 -49.3 264  85 333.4 333.4 292.7 333.5  0.02 17  200 11777 -50.9 -74.7   4 23.7 -51.4 263  93 352.1 352.1 297.1 352.1  0.01 18  150 13638 -54.3 -82.9   2 28.7 -54.7 258  83 376.5 376.5 301.7 376.6  0.00 19  100 16191 -60.9 -83.0   4 22.1 -61.2 259  62 410.0 410.0 306.5 410.0  0.00

[WXinCanton]

QPF from the 12z Euro

 

[Cheeznado]

I think even the ATL area may get some sleet or snow- the mountains up to 2-3"? It only got to 34 here today, about 2-3 degrees colder than expected, and the dew points are in the low single digits. Evap cooling is going to be a big player- assuming the column can saturate before the precip ends.

[NEGa]

I'm thinking there is a decent shot of some widespread light snow/sleet...maybe an an inch or two, for the northern 3rd of georgia with this system with best chance in the mountains of course, as well as extreme northeast alabama/eastern tn. 

 

this is the first thing really worth posting about in so very long lol.  i hope we can at least see some flakes around here.  today has been a cold one, we never got above 30.  now if we can just get some moisture to make it this far east

 

 

I'm grasping for anything up here.  12z GFS soundings for Dahlonega show solid snow at 18z Wed and possibly surviving as all snow.  Surface temps should drop below freezing with precip start not only thanks to a low surface DP but also the 925 temp is very cold at the start.  Colder than you would normally expect as 850's are warmer.  If the GFS verifies verabtim 1-2" looks good for my area northward.

you and me both.  i cant remember the last time we had a chance to post about seeing some flakes around here

[deltadog03]

I think even the ATL area may get some sleet or snow- the mountains up to 2-3"? It only got to 34 here today, about 2-3 degrees colder than expected, and the dew points are in the low single digits. Evap cooling is going to be a big player- assuming the column can saturate before the precip ends,,,,

very good points...I think thats a good statement.

[LithiaWx]

Looks decent, us GA folks should see some snow. 1-3 sounds like a good bet north of here with under an inch for my area.

[Met1985]

I think even the ATL area may get some sleet or snow- the mountains up to 2-3"? It only got to 34 here today, about 2-3 degrees colder than expected, and the dew points are in the low single digits. Evap cooling is going to be a big player- assuming the column can saturate before the precip ends.

Sounds very reasonable for up here.

[NCummingWx93]

Looks like our first decent shot in N GA. Will we have a SFC high in the NE to add to wedging or are we relying strictly on wet-bulbing to lock in an in-situ wedge? I have a hunch that my forecast high of 42 on wed will bust if we do in fact get precip in here early enough, and when it starts, the temperature won't recover, once in-situ damming is locked in place; especially for those of us N/E of ATL.

[deltadog03]

I am actually pretty optimistic even ATL sees something wintry.  

[Bsudweather]

The upstate may end up seeing more out of this clipper system, than the big storm late week! I wouldn't be surprised if upstate doesn't get an inch out of this wed

[mackerel_sky]

The upstate may end up seeing more out of this clipper system, than the big storm late week! I wouldn't be surprised if upstate doesn't get an inch out of this wed

If we get any precip here, it could be in the morning on Wednesday , I'm all in for this one! Moisture on these things make it further east than modeled about 75% of the time

[NGA WINTER]

I'm pretty excited for this little system Wednesday. I truly think a lot of north Georgia will get on the board. Maybe 1-2"?

[Tony Sisk]

If we get any precip here, it could be in the morning on Wednesday , I'm all in for this one! Moisture on these things make it further east than modeled about 75% of the time

I hope you right...but rarely do these clippers do a thing for our neck of the woods in Upstate SC.

[mackerel_sky]

I hope you right...but rarely do these clippers do a thing for our neck of the woods in Upstate SC.

There was a system like this in Feb of 13, it wasn't suppose to even make it here. It was a Saturday and it snowed here for a solid hour or two, no accums, but Caesars head got a suprise 4-5", we weren't cold enough, upper 30s

[Bsudweather]

I've seen clippers put snow on the ground plenty of times in the upstate. This one especially is pretty strong! May be stronger than modeled

[NWNC2015]

WPC has a 95% chance or greater for 0.01 or more freezing rain for areas northwest of Atlanta, Georgia. Downtown is probably 60-70% chance. 

 

70-80% chance just west of Asheville, NC.