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1/19-1/20 mid-week storm potential


Bsudweather

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I think alot of folks has got a much better chance at seeing some accumulating snowfall mid next week than sundays event. One reason being if we do have a storm to verify we will already have arctic air in place when that moves through. Cause its going to be pretty cold first half of next week. The 12z GFS is spitting out 2-3" amounts for GA/SC and more for NW NC. So that potential may be much more fun. We already around the 5 day point for that potential.

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I just glanced, but didn't notice a transfer of any kind. Looks like a shortwave that simply never digs as we lose the influence of ridging out west. It also looks to shear out as it comes east, which is why it doesn't look as good further east as it does in central TN

Yea be nice to see another Low pop up so it has that to transfer energy to. If we could get that setup with this next week we would be in business!

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I just glanced, but didn't notice a transfer of any kind. Looks like a shortwave that simply never digs as we lose the influence of ridging out west. It also looks to shear out as it comes east, which is why it doesn't look as good further east as it does in central TN

I'm sure your area will do better than here. I will take whatever I can get at this point.

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There is a pretty big signal for a juicy Miller A storm next mid and late week.  Still a long way off, but good to see it look a lot like the 0z euro ensembles.

Looks more miller B with a big CAD signature. Just looks at the dew points ahead of the storm:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=15&model_init_hh=12&fhour=126&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

THe precip just dies away as it moves east but definitely a good setup.

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I don't think this pays out for anyone but Tennessee and the mountains. Only one individual GEFS member seems to be excited about snowfall prospects for almost all the Carolinas outside the far western areas.

that might be a good thing if its not keying in on that wave.  rather focus on miller A possibility

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I don't think this pays out for anyone but Tennessee and the mountains. Only one individual GEFS member seems to be excited about snowfall prospects for almost all the Carolinas outside the far western areas.

Plenty of time for it to trend better. The cold will definitely be in place. 2m temps pretty frigid around here Wed morning in the Low to mid 20s. 850s could go a little colder but even those are cold enough to support wintry precip. We just need to get a good storm and that's very doable I think.

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We'll it currently just dies away so maybe your right. I always consider a miller B setup to have one storm move up west of the mountains and then the energy transfers to a storm off the coast. If there is a CAD those areas can stay in a cold air source. A miller A keeps its primary low and forces areas to the east into a warm air source. So no CAD; or a lose of CAD as the storm moves north of our areas. I think if we're going to score with this system we need the miller B; and honestly I think it would make since with the setup.

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That wave needs to dig.  These are the kinds of temps and that is the kind of HP placement that Cold Rain likes right there. :)

 

Low track equals moisture starved though......we need it 300 miles further south....2M dews are in the single digits over the Carolinas so its really cold and dry....

 

Next Fri/Sat gonna be the one we all freak on....with cold in place after 4-5 way below normal days leading into it.....

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Low track equals moisture starved though......we need it 300 miles further south....2M dews are in the single digits over the Carolinas so its really cold and dry....

 

Next Fri/Sat gonna be the one we all freak on....with cold in place after 4-5 way below normal days leading into it.....

 

Yeah, it needs to get south big time and spin something up while the cold is here.  How's next weekend looking?

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