Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Still got time for jan 2000 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Still got time for jan 2000 repeat Yeah we have up until the 11th hour, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 6z is full of surprises especially for tomorrow. Storm climbs to a higher latitude. SOMEBODY WAKE UP RAVENS94! He needs to take us home today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM Radars look good. All Virga? The north side many times verifies further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 6Z GFS moved closer but is still pretty far away from anything more than flurries for the southern part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Maybe wes sees a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looks like I picked a good year to move south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Actually the heavier precip on the crappy SREFs mean moved south a little from 03Z to 06Z. All that came north was an expansion of the pixie dust shield. Must be a couple of members giving us a HECS or similar, which always happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ravens94.. The fact that you are in Belair makes this suck all the more for you! Not when you have a condo down ocmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not when you have a condo down ocmd You should head down there dude. Could see a half inch of sloppy wet snow. That is worth the drive in this craptastic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think it's fun to watch a system like this.....and I am the one posting with zero chance of seeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I still don't see this NW trend as being over. 12z NAM right now not that it really matters but its probably coming NW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think it's fun to watch a system like this.....and I am the one posting with zero chance of seeing anything. It would be fun if we had already banked something. Given we have been shutout and half of met winter is over, its a bit meh tracking a system that we know has an upside of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nam Is coming north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Bring this one home for us, Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol I hate the NAM i wouldn't use it till 12 hours in and even that is generous. Just saying it did move again But its still a disorganized mess at the surface and 500mb. they should just destroy the model worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Nam Is coming north again.Justin Berk? Is that you? Sorry, couldn't resist. I'm not gonna lie. I've been rooting for you Ravens94. Keep up the investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It did move again, almost enough for us to have hope so we can be crushed. When do we start nowcasting? Don't think the models will shift the precipitation shield close enough so I assume that's the next step as why grasp for anything in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The NAM gets no precip into MD. Barely any into SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The NAM gets no precip into MD. Barely any into SE VA. What? It sounded so promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't worry its working on it. just gonna take 4 more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ravens94 could probably make clear skies and 60 degrees sound exciting Channeling dtk here but the NAM really isn't all that bad as long as you don't expect it to perform great at range. Yeah it's had some pretty miserable failures but so have the other models at times. It's decent in severe season if not just a tad overzealous. I'm sure many will disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't worry its working on it. just gonna take 4 more runs. I love the enthusiasm but the placement of that low isn't any better for us. In fact, it actually looks like it moved slightly NE from the 0z run, further away from the coast. No precip gets into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I love the enthusiasm but the placement of that low isn't any better for us. In fact, it actually looks like it moved slightly NE from the 0z run. No precip gets into our area. Look at 30 and 36 its moving everything WNW. Its working on it just very strung out and all over the place. NAM has no clue what to do at 500mb http://www.txtornado.net/NAM/new_slp_nam_all_12.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GEM REG now down to 994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Imo the RGEM is a better piece of guidance vs the Nam. 6z gets nothing nw of DC and a very light stripe SE. We'll see what 12z does. The range across all guidance is pretty consistent. Extremely light event in our area favoring the SE. I doubt that will change much. Especially north and west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yawn. Road trip to SE VA for rain/snow mix anyone? Actually Williamsburg may jackpot with all snow. I will be bullish and call for a solid half inch there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't worry its working on it. just gonna take 4 more runs. Don't get me wrong. I love your enthusiasm, but bulk of precip hasn't been moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Don't get me wrong. I love your enthusiasm, but bulk of precip hasn't been moving north. Screen Shot 2016-01-16 at 9.45.55 AM.png Screen Shot 2016-01-16 at 9.46.11 AM.png Its because the NAM barely has a low. Weaker storm would go further out like the NAM but the NAM is literally the only model with a storm that strung out and weak until it fixes itself its a joke. 4K is further NW then the low res But still a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think it's fun to watch a system like this.....and I am the one posting with zero chance of seeing anything. This is kinda fun. I mean, I don't really have high hopes but heck it is something in the short range that actually exists and could produce. Let's see if 12z ticks better. Even though this has a slim to none chance, it's certainly more enjoyable than watching our forum meltdown during the times when we lose a storm in the model runs leading up to a potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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