Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Jan. 17/18 - Possible Flurries/Snow Showers


North Balti Zen

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 733
  • Created
  • Last Reply

00z GEM is NW again and also a few hours faster. Speed is going to be everything if the northern stream is slower it will come west or if the vort is faster it will come west obviously opposites it goes east but this is now 5 runs of continued NW

I assume you mean the RGEM?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GEM is NW again and also a few hours faster. Speed is going to be everything if the northern stream is slower it will come west or if the vort is faster it will come west obviously opposites it goes east but this is now 5 runs of continued NW

That out to Sunday already? Where do you get it?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its our fun B & W maps -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif

 

36 hr 00z RGEM -- 998mb SLP just W of JAX

Just need the storm to speed up another 3-4 hours and beat out the northern stream. the faster the storm the more interaction we are seeing for sure. This storm is definitely one that only hours and each direction can be huge. 

500MB is definitely tighter and more amplified then 12z. the kicker is almost hitting the backside of the SW that would race it in front of the kicker by forcing more of a negative tilt. every run its getting closer and closer and its forcing it west. if there was more interaction the western side of the precip shield would explode there still is enough time several more cycles to go.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No dice from 00z RGEM -- hr 48 -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif

 

So right now its 21z SREFs vs 00z NAM/00z RGEM

The images i posted were the GEM REG (RGEM) it was tight to the coast all the way to NC then it shoots off because of the lack of interaction and the kicker catches it . http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still a swing and a miss

There is still changes going on at 500mb For sure. Much more amped in the SE due to the Kicker cutting behind the SW Just need the dang thing to speed up. GFS was actually a hour or so slower because it dug it more as it was amplifying 

It is still about 30 miles NW of 18z and it still Trending NW. 6 run trend now on the GFS. If the GFS was to speed up the SW again and make it 4-6 hours faster this would have been much more west. Euro&UK should be interesting tonight. 

http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_00.htm

http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_00.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People talk about the "different models" of the SREF.   it's basically two models - the WRF ARW core and the WRF NMMB core.   The different members (13 of each) mix and match initial conditions, PBL schemes, microphysics, convective schemes, radiation parameterization, amount of gravity wave drag, etc.....     It's always odd when there is a cluster within the same model core members of a soiution, and in this case, you can see that it's most of the ARW members that are bringing the system north, while pretty much all of the NMMB members show no threat up this way.     It's hard to buy the ARW's idea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's over Yoda.

 

winterwx, when it looked interesting a few days ago the lakes low was more elongated n/s and took on a neg tilt for a time. For us the fun in that would be the capture and strengthening of the southern low. At this point it's a bowling ball with a broad base of westerlies so it's mostly just punting the southern stream low. There's still perhaps some minor stream interaction which could help produce the potential flizzard I suppose.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...