Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Keeps going west its going to be going through GA and off SC. its a good 50-100 miles North this run from 18z. Its also about 3 hours faster then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z GEM is NW again and also a few hours faster. Speed is going to be everything if the northern stream is slower it will come west or if the vort is faster it will come west obviously opposites it goes east but this is now 5 runs of continued NW I assume you mean the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I assume you mean the RGEM? GEM REG (High res version of GGEM GLB) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Could be a tough day for radar watching for sure. I bet at some point it will look like it is headed right for us only to curve eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z GEM is NW again and also a few hours faster. Speed is going to be everything if the northern stream is slower it will come west or if the vort is faster it will come west obviously opposites it goes east but this is now 5 runs of continued NWThat out to Sunday already? Where do you get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That out to Sunday already? Where do you get it? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Change the dates tho on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It would need to phase and I have seen nothing that shows that. The precip will hit a brick wall around EZF and begin to evaporate and collapse SE.. I hope to eat these words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Change the dates tho on the left This winter has been so lousy, I forgot about that link. Lol. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Its our fun B & W maps -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif 36 hr 00z RGEM -- 998mb SLP just W of JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I don't think this will ever work out, but it's literally all we've got. Ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I don't think this will ever work out, but it's literally all we've got. Ughh BWI would get smoked if it did Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I am staying up to see if the slow moving, soul crushing bowling ball of death is still there next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Its our fun B & W maps -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif 36 hr 00z RGEM -- 998mb SLP just W of JAX Just need the storm to speed up another 3-4 hours and beat out the northern stream. the faster the storm the more interaction we are seeing for sure. This storm is definitely one that only hours and each direction can be huge. 500MB is definitely tighter and more amplified then 12z. the kicker is almost hitting the backside of the SW that would race it in front of the kicker by forcing more of a negative tilt. every run its getting closer and closer and its forcing it west. if there was more interaction the western side of the precip shield would explode there still is enough time several more cycles to go. https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 No dice from 00z RGEM -- hr 48 -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif So right now its 21z SREFs vs 00z NAM/00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 No dice from 00z RGEM -- hr 48 -- https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif So right now its 21z SREFs vs 00z NAM/00z RGEM The images i posted were the GEM REG (RGEM) it was tight to the coast all the way to NC then it shoots off because of the lack of interaction and the kicker catches it . http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just as proud as can be of this thread - won't rest until Fredericksburg gets a flurry. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Kicker is behind the SW this run first run its like that. amplifying nicely on the GFS 24hr GFS is definitely more amped SW is faster Kicker dug behind low position is coming north again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Kicker is behind the SW this run first run its like that. amplifying nicely on the GFS Still a swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Squashed into the gulf... Whee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Still a swing and a miss There is still changes going on at 500mb For sure. Much more amped in the SE due to the Kicker cutting behind the SW Just need the dang thing to speed up. GFS was actually a hour or so slower because it dug it more as it was amplifying It is still about 30 miles NW of 18z and it still Trending NW. 6 run trend now on the GFS. If the GFS was to speed up the SW again and make it 4-6 hours faster this would have been much more west. Euro&UK should be interesting tonight. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_all_00.htm http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_00.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 People talk about the "different models" of the SREF. it's basically two models - the WRF ARW core and the WRF NMMB core. The different members (13 of each) mix and match initial conditions, PBL schemes, microphysics, convective schemes, radiation parameterization, amount of gravity wave drag, etc..... It's always odd when there is a cluster within the same model core members of a soiution, and in this case, you can see that it's most of the ARW members that are bringing the system north, while pretty much all of the NMMB members show no threat up this way. It's hard to buy the ARW's idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You know snow is badly needed when the SREFs are being hugged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z GGEM FWIW is a no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 closest the 00z UKIE gets to us --- hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's over Yoda. winterwx, when it looked interesting a few days ago the lakes low was more elongated n/s and took on a neg tilt for a time. For us the fun in that would be the capture and strengthening of the southern low. At this point it's a bowling ball with a broad base of westerlies so it's mostly just punting the southern stream low. There's still perhaps some minor stream interaction which could help produce the potential flizzard I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Is Ravens going into the panic room? He's got his heart in this flizzard. Had me hoping too. Guess it's on to next weeks long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This thing is deader than dead rats Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This thing is deader than dead rats Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looking at the 6z gfs, I'm pretty sure Ravens knows the story of a rat the old-timers called Lazarus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Again that thing on 6z moves ever so closer. I mean ORF gets love on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Again that thing on 6z moves ever so closer. I mean ORF gets love on this run. Getting close on 6z for sure. Damn. #Ravens94Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.