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Jan. 17/18 - Possible Flurries/Snow Showers


North Balti Zen

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My first thought is that there are two or three of those models in there that probably went hog wild.

Probably means nothing.

I'm not sure short-term "good" busts happen anymore. In mesoscale fashion sure, but on a storm scale.. when was the last? 2000 since that's the one everyone mentions?

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I'm not sure short-term "good" busts happen anymore. In mesoscale fashion sure, but on a storm scale.. when was the last? 2000 since that's the one everyone mentions?

I'm not sure I've ever seen a bust like we would need, but the Jan 30, 2010 was pretty huge in our neck of the woods.

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Aren't the 21z SREFs from "older" data? I remember thinking they were the first of the 0z suite but then I read on here last year that they're the "last" of the pre-0z runs?

I thought they used 18z data I believe, anyways for giggles 0z NAM is like 4mb stronger overall heh.
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I firmly believe we have run out of time with this, it has to be a major major shift to get measurable (snow). I know Ravens will say something about the NAM trending north lol. Which literally gets precip to I-95 in South Carolina ENE to 20 miles North of HAT. Not even close to us.

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is the NAM still a model? raven wasn't going to say anything about the NAM. only model that can still screw up a 12 hour forecast. it did move NW tho as i believe the other models will do as they have been doing 4+ runs now. trend is definitely there

I firmly believe we have run out of time with this, it has to be a major major shift to get measurable (snow). I know Ravens will say something about the NAM trending north lol. Which literally gets precip to I-95 in South Carolina ENE to 20 miles North of HAT. Not even close to us.

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Well it's helping punt it but it could also lead to a massive storm if they managed to phase. Pointed out a number of times this setup isn't all that far off the Blizzard of 1966 setup. I'd still stand by that regardless of what it ends up doing. We are running fairly short on time, would be a pretty major short to mid term bust with the models to have it become a bigger deal.

I still can't picture the interaction that would have to take place with the southern s/w and that northern bowling ball to create a big storm. What would I see on the 500 map? Vorticity (colors) connection between the two. Also, how badly does the s/w that produced today's rain hurt the one running across the south tomorrow?

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I still can't picture the interaction that would have to take place with the southern s/w and that northern bowling ball to create a big storm. What would I see on the 500 map? Vorticity (colors) connection between the two. Also, how badly does the s/w that produced today's rain hurt the one running across the south tomorrow?

How about that vort moving through VA Sunday morning? If it dipped a little south and slowed a bit?

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