BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 11th and a half hour. Whopping sounds like what is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is a big shift heh. Closer to the fringe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is kinda pathetic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is a big shift heh. Closer to the fringe now. I was expecting a big meh...a heh is something else entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This is kinda pathetic lol Then why are you here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Compared to 15z it's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That is a big shift heh. Closer to the fringe now. My first thought is that there are two or three of those models in there that probably went hog wild. Probably means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 image.gif image.gif You might get to rest your machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I was expecting a big meh...a heh is something else entirely. It's actually pretty good. There are fairly substantial changes. Well inside the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 My first thought is that there are two or three of those models in there that probably went hog wild. Probably means nothing. I'm not sure short-term "good" busts happen anymore. In mesoscale fashion sure, but on a storm scale.. when was the last? 2000 since that's the one everyone mentions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What's the SREF's track record Ian? Is this the little engine that could?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm not sure short-term "good" busts happen anymore. In mesoscale fashion sure, but on a storm scale.. when was the last? 2000 since that's the one everyone mentions? I'm not sure I've ever seen a bust like we would need, but the Jan 30, 2010 was pretty huge in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Aren't the 21z SREFs from "older" data? I remember thinking they were the first of the 0z suite but then I read on here last year that they're the "last" of the pre-0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Aren't the 21z SREFs from "older" data? I remember thinking they were the first of the 0z suite but then I read on here last year that they're the "last" of the pre-0z runs?I thought they used 18z data I believe, anyways for giggles 0z NAM is like 4mb stronger overall heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Even with this jump we still get nothing. Unless the GFS moves big time I think this is just the stupid SREFs coming into alignment with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Sref Huge north shifts ooo. figured based on the coloring they might be somewhat clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Even with this jump we still get nothing. Unless the GFS moves big time I think this is just the stupid SREFs coming into alignment with the rest of the guidance. Probably correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Even with this jump we still get nothing. Unless the GFS moves big time I think this is just the stupid SREFs coming into alignment with the rest of the guidance. Hey now, Spotsylvania will take its Snizzle and hope for a the mulch to cover over lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Still time for even more shifts.Extrapolated out, the image Ian posted almost had a NW movement to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I firmly believe we have run out of time with this, it has to be a major major shift to get measurable (snow). I know Ravens will say something about the NAM trending north lol. Which literally gets precip to I-95 in South Carolina ENE to 20 miles North of HAT. Not even close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The NAM is about to restore order in here....(I can't believe I just typed that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The NAM is about to restore order in here....(I can't believe I just typed that) NAM's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The NAM is about to restore order in here....(I can't believe I just typed that) It actually shifted its heavier precip a good 100+ miles nw. It was a pretty far se model all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM's not even close. Also true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 is the NAM still a model? raven wasn't going to say anything about the NAM. only model that can still screw up a 12 hour forecast. it did move NW tho as i believe the other models will do as they have been doing 4+ runs now. trend is definitely there I firmly believe we have run out of time with this, it has to be a major major shift to get measurable (snow). I know Ravens will say something about the NAM trending north lol. Which literally gets precip to I-95 in South Carolina ENE to 20 miles North of HAT. Not even close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 NAM's not even close. That's what I meant by restore order Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well it's helping punt it but it could also lead to a massive storm if they managed to phase. Pointed out a number of times this setup isn't all that far off the Blizzard of 1966 setup. I'd still stand by that regardless of what it ends up doing. We are running fairly short on time, would be a pretty major short to mid term bust with the models to have it become a bigger deal. I still can't picture the interaction that would have to take place with the southern s/w and that northern bowling ball to create a big storm. What would I see on the 500 map? Vorticity (colors) connection between the two. Also, how badly does the s/w that produced today's rain hurt the one running across the south tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I still can't picture the interaction that would have to take place with the southern s/w and that northern bowling ball to create a big storm. What would I see on the 500 map? Vorticity (colors) connection between the two. Also, how badly does the s/w that produced today's rain hurt the one running across the south tomorrow? How about that vort moving through VA Sunday morning? If it dipped a little south and slowed a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 00z GEM is NW again and also a few hours faster. Speed is going to be everything if the northern stream is slower it will come west or if the vort is faster it will come west obviously opposites it goes east but this is now 5 runs of continued NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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