North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Instead of cluttering the long-range with this (saving that thread for unicorn clutter) - maybe drop posts here with regard to whether anyone sees something frozen and fluffy falling from the sky Sunday/Monday? As it stands, DC south might have a chance at a mood flake or two. Maybe it trends better to genuine cartopper? Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I thought last night that this storm was starting to turn the corner to move closer to the coast. However that does not seem to be any improvement in the 6 Z run this morning. We have to hope that the models are in such disarray that they can't pick up on subtle changes that could occur. Otherwise I'm looking for a reset going into February and possibly having a week of two major snow storms which will end our winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ensembles aren't what you look at 48 hours out. I'm not sure the ggem ensembles should ever be looked at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The NAM look at 500 was better starting at about 24 hours. I would have thought it would at least produce something that might throw a little more moisture up into VA. Curious that it didn't. Probably get bashed for even looking, but I'm immune to any bashing I might get at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Weenie question, but what would we need to even have a slight chance at snow from the coastal system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Weenie question, but what would we need to even have a slight chance at snow from the coastal system? The streak of light precip in NC/VA that keeps showing up isn't triggered by the coastal as much as it is by a little energy spinning down in the northern stream. The coastal is providing moisture and the ns is provide the mechanism from what I'm seeing. The storm is too weak to push synoptic precip from the low center anywhere near us. We just need as strong a storm as possible as close to the coast as possible and hope it links up with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z RGEM at 48 has a 998mb SLP just SW of the Big Bend of FL... 06z RGEM at 54 had a 999mb SLP around the same area FWIW... which prob isn't much For ref -- 12z GFS OP is 1000mb SLP east of JAX at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Heights were much higher this run. Storm is also much stronger. Just need it to be 6 hours faster or the northern stream 6 hours slower. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm. timing will be crucial 6-12 hours either direction could result in a very different situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Heights were much higher this run. Storm is also much stronger. Just need it to be 6 hours faster or the northern stream 6 hours slower. http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_500_gfs_all_12.htm. timing will be crucial 6-12 hours either direction could result in a very different situation. I think we want that energy to dig further south otherwise it looks like it's acting more like a kicker. Too much separation it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, 12z GGEM is swing and a miss for anything and anyone for anyone who still cares about this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro upped the ante south and east with the coastal/light event. Would be the most widespread non-accumulating event of the year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro upped the ante south and east with the coastal/light event. Would be the most widespread non-accumulating event of the year here. Any snow is good snow here IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is getting close.. prob not enough time but so much for it being right when it was way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The models all seem to be trending stronger and farther n/w. Maybe the trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is getting close.. prob not enough time but so much for it being right when it was way south. I figured the trip to Cuba wasn't happening but am surprised how far NW it has come since then. I would assume this is the limit but we still have another day or so for last shift or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I figured the trip to Cuba wasn't happening but am surprised how far NW it has come since then. I would assume this is the limit but we still have another day or so for last shift or 2. Still mostly love the 500mb look.. not perfect but not sure everyone realizes how close it is to a big one. Tough storm to get quite right any day tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Euro is stronger with the GFS irt the little piece of ns energy getting into the mix. QPF is meager. Around .03 or so with a small jack of .05 down near CHO. Timing isn't the best. Surface is in the mid 30's on the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Still mostly love the 500mb look.. not perfect but not sure everyone realizes how close it is to a big one. Tough storm to get quite right any day tho. I wish something showed the chance of the vort going negative. Even a weak storm with the vort going neg around the periphery of the ull would pull things right (or left in this case. lol). Shaping up to being one of those years where things are having a really hard time lining up. The whole luck thing. We've gotten snow the last 2 years when we shouldn't have so maybe now we don't get snow when we should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Still mostly love the 500mb look.. not perfect but not sure everyone realizes how close it is to a big one. Tough storm to get quite right any day tho. I figured the trip to Cuba wasn't happening but am surprised how far NW it has come since then. I would assume this is the limit but we still have another day or so for last shift or 2. Euro is getting close.. prob not enough time but so much for it being right when it was way south. Euro upped the ante south and east with the coastal/light event. Would be the most widespread non-accumulating event of the year here. Are you guys talking Sunday or next week? If Sunday, you can look at both the NAM and GFS and see a clear trend over the past 36 hours. Problem is time is short and it's out of room. I don't know if I'm right in this assessment, but that bowling ball from hell in the northern plains seems to be the reason the heights in front can't rise. I suppose timing could be different than modeled, but one would assume that the models should be pretty close by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 ^ yes, sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Are you guys talking Sunday or next week? If Sunday, you can look at both the NAM and GFS and see a clear trend over the past 36 hours. Problem is time is short and it's out of room. I don't know if I'm right in this assessment, but that bowling ball from hell in the northern plains seems to be the reason the heights in front can't rise. I suppose timing could be different than modeled, but one would assume that the models should be pretty close by now. Well it's helping punt it but it could also lead to a massive storm if they managed to phase. Pointed out a number of times this setup isn't all that far off the Blizzard of 1966 setup. I'd still stand by that regardless of what it ends up doing. We are running fairly short on time, would be a pretty major short to mid term bust with the models to have it become a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 FWIW, 12z EURO SLP placement looks awfully similar to the 12z RGEM... as well as in strength... this is at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well it's helping punt it but it could also lead to a massive storm if they managed to phase. Pointed out a number of times this setup isn't all that far off the Blizzard of 1966 setup. I'd still stand by that regardless of what it ends up doing. We are running fairly short on time, would be a pretty major short to mid term bust with the models to have it become a bigger deal. it is very similar the timing or spacing is just off by either 12 hours or a couple hundred miles...better luck and it could have been big. Thats the risk with these kind of things though, perfect timing and you get a phased monster like 1966, anything is just a smidgen off and you get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 it is very similar the timing or spacing is just off by either 12 hours or a couple hundred miles...better luck and it could have been big. Thats the risk with these kind of things though, perfect timing and you get a phased monster like 1966, anything is just a smidgen off and you get nothing yeah pretty much. I wonder if it'll actually end up bumping back south in closing. Sometimes we see an overcorrection north with these things. But it's worth watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 it is very similar the timing or spacing is just off by either 12 hours or a couple hundred miles...better luck and it could have been big. Thats the risk with these kind of things though, perfect timing and you get a phased monster like 1966, anything is just a smidgen off and you get nothing You would think that if there was even a slim chance at a phase happening we would have seen it presented somewhere by now. We're awful close in time now. I never saw a hint of it anywhere the last 3-4 days which is a shame because the table at least had a tablecloth and some wine glasses. Stupid plates and silverware screwed it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You would think that if there was even a slim chance at a phase happening we would have seen it presented somewhere by now. We're awful close in time now. I never saw a hint of it anywhere the last 3-4 days which is a shame because the table at least had a tablecloth and some wine glasses. Stupid plates and silverware screwed it all up. I know we don't use the ensembles inside this time frame but have any showed the phase scenario? even 1 member? seems like you or someone would have said so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You would think that if there was even a slim chance at a phase happening we would have seen it presented somewhere by now. We're awful close in time now. I never saw a hint of it anywhere the last 3-4 days which is a shame because the table at least had a tablecloth and some wine glasses. Stupid plates and silverware screwed it all up. We need a hail mary, but I think until the first system gets out of the way (tonight's rain), we will have to wait for the rest of the utensils to be put/get on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You would think that if there was even a slim chance at a phase happening we would have seen it presented somewhere by now. We're awful close in time now. I never saw a hint of it anywhere the last 3-4 days which is a shame because the table at least had a tablecloth and some wine glasses. Stupid plates and silverware screwed it all up. GFS was pretty close the run that everyone got excited about. It at least mostly captured the wave if not a full phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Why are Ian and Bob refusing to use this thread? Sad face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Why are Ian and Bob refusing to use this thread? Sad face. Because they know we're crazy to think the storm will really shift enough to give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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