cmichweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 JMA usually sniffs out these things first omg... best line ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The GEFS still has a decent signal for a storm in that day 6-8 period. Mean snowfall is around 3" across the area and this is the mean qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 JMA usually sniffs out these things first classic Ji just classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 omg... best line ever lol..whatever. The Jma was born for this kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 should take any sunday talk to thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47628-jan-1718-possible-flurriessnow-showers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 so the 6z GEFS actually looked good in the very long range, after a blah 0z and absolutely awful GGEM and EPS. 12z GEFS totally flipped to exactly what the EPS had last night for day 15. I cant post the EPS graphics but its just a copy of todays GEFS. Not sure there is anyway to spin this as anything positive. Only good thing I can say is when you look at the members there is definitely a two camp idea with several members having a very different look long term and it keeps changing its mind which way to go. So by no means do I think this evolution is set in stone but its a pretty bad look that has shown up now several times on the EPS GGEM and GEFS heading into what we hope would be our prime time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO ens looks like they backed off the Fri event a bit today, but honestly as PSU just stated the LR doesn't look that terrible....This kinda sucks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM ensembles are very supportive of the day 7 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 so the 6z GEFS actually looked good in the very long range, after a blah 0z and absolutely awful GGEM and EPS. 12z GEFS totally flipped to exactly what the EPS had last night for day 15. I cant post the EPS graphics but its just a copy of todays GEFS. Not sure there is anyway to spin this as anything positive. Only good thing I can say is when you look at the members there is definitely a two camp idea with several members having a very different look long term and it keeps changing its mind which way to go. So by no means do I think this evolution is set in stone but its a pretty bad look that has shown up now several times on the EPS GGEM and GEFS heading into what we hope would be our prime time period. ohcrap.gif although I appreciate your posts always, I have no faith whatsoever in the ensembles this year seems to me that there was a choice between 2 camps of super Ninos, one with + snows and the other with way - so far, we're in the 2nd camp; does it change is the only question I have this year is different than another other super Ninos so that's where I'll hang my hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO ens looks like they backed off the Fri event a bit today, but honestly as PSU just stated the LR doesn't look that terrible....This kinda sucks though. they are bouncing around like crazy run to run. GFS is kinda blah at 0z, great at 6z, absolutely awful at 12z. EPS has a few days with a decent long range look then flips to absolute torch last night. GGEM looked good then last night flipped warm now 12z flipped back to a good look day 13-15. Havent seen the EPS yet but whats the point...the models cannot get a handle on the pattern right now and are just flipping around run to run. They are doing the same with the day 7 snow threat too but its still showing enough signal not to give up on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 although I appreciate your posts always, I have no faith whatsoever in the ensembles this year seems to me that there was a choice between 2 camps of super Ninos, one with + snows and the other with way - so far, we're in the 2nd camp; does it change is the only question I have this year is different than another other super Ninos so that's where I'll hang my hat Oh I agree...just basically said so in my last post... I am just observing what they guidance suggests day to day, but I have no faith in its accuracy. Its flipping around run to run like I have rarely seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS tries Fri night but doesn't doo too well. A few stronger Ls not way out there tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Oh I agree...just basically said so in my last post... I am just observing what they guidance suggests day to day, but I have no faith in its accuracy. Its flipping around run to run like I have rarely seen before. Jb is having his worst winter ever...and thats saying alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EPS tries Fri night but doesn't doo too well. A few stronger Ls not way out there tho. Dr No is on steroids this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Dr No is on steroids this season I'm going to ride this one for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Jb is having his worst winter ever...and thats saying alot how is this any different then every other year, unless EVERYTHING is lined up where there is just no way on gods green earth it can snow he predicts a snowy winter for the major cities then he spends all winter chasing snow, hyping every single possible threat and predicting the worst case scenario to happen. When a snowy period does hit he looks like a genius and the other 90% of the time he looks like an idiot. The only difference this year is we have not had any snow at all yet so he is 100% idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm going to ride this one for now: when member 3 and the JMA are in sync....look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm going to ride this one for now: I'll take that ride too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm going to ride this one for now: We have to win the lottery sometime... right? I'll take that and a few days of cold and go right into spring... The flowerbuds of spring flowering cherries are already swelling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Any chance that post tropical Alex becomes our block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Any chance that post tropical Alex becomes our block?You know, ever since Justin Berk mentioned that, I've been wondering the same thing...What effects could that have on the storm tracks going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't think Alex really does anything wrt to the pattern. It's pretty small and gets ingested by a mid-latitude low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z GFS Para still has snow in DC for next Friday - although it looks like the low is weaker overall when compared to 06z (but the temps are slightly better in 12z vs. 06z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS is looking interesting through 150 -- 1008mb low over ARK with a decent looking precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS is looking interesting through 150 -- 1008mb low over ARK with a decent looking precip shield Looks good for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks good for rain probably right, just glad to see it not continuing that first wave BS for more then one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS has joined the EURO camp with that stupid ULL that gets cut off from the rest of the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 probably right, just glad to see it not continuing that first wave BS for more then one run... If the first wave held together and didn't get sheared out it wouldn't be such a bad thing. There would be no temp. issues. Right now 2-4 inches of cold powder seems pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS has joined the EURO camp with that stupid ULL that gets cut off from the rest of the flow. Superninos suck, 97-98 had like 5 of these. Southern jet is just too far south. EDIT: GFS would be an epic amount of ZR for someone in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 240 hr EURO, if you extrapolated it the cold front would probably clear and there is decent energy in the Southwest... /sarcasm semi-srs There is actually a decent PNA spike on the LR 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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