stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is the GFS doing this stupid early wave thing again from 0z? Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Light snow over the area from 3z-12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would tend to agree, but the super basin wide nino kind of throws a wildcard into it. I could see anything happening and wouldn't be that surprised. The EPS would argue we are going to torch with a sick eastern ridge showing up but its just one run and outside reliable range so your probably right its either temporary or overdone. I sure hope so because I bought a snowblower and a snow suit for my 14 month old and I would like to get to use both at least once or twice this year! ETA: just to be clear I don't mind shoveling snow but I have a 400 yard driveway up the mountain my house is on and there is no way I could get that done in a timely manner to get to work. I think it's more the fact that the Nino has had a second gasp and even the CFS2 is clearly showing a 2nd peak. 83 peaked late too, but wasn't as strong. So I guess what I'm saying is that this Nino has not behaved as prior strong Ninos and if it fails to produce for us like the strong ones that did produce, I think the 2nd peak/failed weakening will likely be the culprit. But, anything can happen still so we wait and hope we can get a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 gfs=shut the model down At least it moved on to the d12-13 threat. That one looks better anyways. It's like pd2 and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least it moved on to the d12-13 threat. That one looks better anyways. It's like pd2 and stuff. this is the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Even tho I was never too excited about it pretty wild how quickly the late next week thing fell apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think it's more the fact that the Nino has had a second gasp and even the CFS2 is clearly showing a 2nd peak. 83 peaked late too, but wasn't as strong. So I guess what I'm saying is that this Nino has not behaved as prior strong Ninos and if it fails to produce for us like the strong ones that did produce, I think the 2nd peak/failed weakening will likely be the culprit. But, anything can happen still so we wait and hope we can get a fluke. Wonder if it has anything to do with most of the Pacific basin temp wise being above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least it moved on to the d12-13 threat. That one looks better anyways. It's like pd2 and stuff. And we keep pushing it back and back April will be here soon sorry more of a banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think we need to look at Feb 1983 for help in this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think we need to look at Feb 1983 for help in this winter? More likely to get Feb 1976... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Even tho I was never too excited about it pretty wild how quickly the late next week thing fell apart. Spotted in the long range. Lost in the medium range. And born again like Jesus in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Spotted in the long range. Lost in the medium range. And born again like Jesus in the short range.6z gefs and 0z eps still like it. I'm in until I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 6z gefs and 0z eps still like it. I'm in until I'm out. I'm with you man. GFS will bring it back. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its obvious that the gfs can't handle the pattern. Right now there is so much potential that the model can't figure out which storm to go with... So it keeps bouncing back and forth from medium to long range. It is just so dynamic that its confused. I think as things relax a little bit the gfs will become more focused and that will help it to snow. I don't think it will latch on to something until maybe the 96 hour mark. And then watch... Boom... Something will bomb out. This is just the way the models work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well looks like the GGEM still likes some form of a storm for late week. But it's the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least there's not much spread with the GEFS @ d5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least there's not much spread with the GEFS @ d5 gefs120.JPG oh man Well, that's encouraging. e17 looks like it's about to wind up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 oh man Well, that's encouraging. e17 looks like it's about to wind up Absolutely all over the place. Until the lead wave is sorted out we really have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Dunno what your talking bout, there is weather on every one of those, very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 0z Euro Ensembles took a step back on snowfall again, yeah it has sorta been up and down run by run, but it's worth mentioning. Might be noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least it moved on to the d12-13 threat. That one looks better anyways. It's like pd2 and stuff. that euro control run has had a snowstorm for Jan 27-28 for like the past 4-5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Through d10. I've seen worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 At least there's not much spread with the GEFS @ d5 gefs120.JPG I'm not following... could you explain? Is this for the Sunday night/Mon event or at a later date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Oh yoda. It's sarcasm. There's so much spread in those panels that it could be called butter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Oh yoda. It's sarcasm. There's so much spread in those panels that it could be called butter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Oh... I don't do sarcasm very well... I always mess it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Through d10. I've seen worse. gefssno.JPG They've looked like that since Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 EURO wants nothing to do with the Friday event still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This one's for Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 JMA usually sniffs out these things first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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