psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You know things are going awry when we wait for canada to fix our domestic problems.Don't look at any of the ensembles day 12-15 it's bad. Took a sudden nose dive last two runs. last nights eps ggem gefs imply a return to the December like pattern. It's not a relax or pullback it's a pretty awful look and one that could take a long time to get out of. day 7-8 threat actually looks better on eps then gefs right now. Hope we score soon because our window might slam shut soon. Hopefully it was a bad run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ravens94 is fine. He is entertaining and at least optimistic. Plenty of downers running around. His couple posts in the thread don't make it harder for people to read the other posts. It isn't like the news in the other posts is good anyway. I agree with this. All his posts do are highlight possibilities not probabilities. If the Sunday event trends about 100 miles north we are looking at a possibility of flurries/showers. Just a couple of days ago we had about 100 posts about light snow showers. It's worth talking about and it is possible that could happen. In a winter like this, what's wrong with it? The long range thread doesn't always have to be about a MECS. Sunday probably should be in the short range thread now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thread for Sunday/Monday dealie started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thread for Sunday/Monday dealie started. Pretty good idea. It, whatever it is LOL, is now in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't look at any of the ensembles day 12-15 it's bad. Took a sudden nose dive last two runs. last nights eps ggem gefs imply a return to the December like pattern. It's not a relax or pullback it's a pretty awful look and one that could take a long time to get out of. day 7-8 threat actually looks better on eps then gefs right now. Hope we score soon because our window might slam shut soon. Hopefully it was a bad run I did not see the EPS or GGEM ensembles, but did take a look at the GEFS mean pattern in that time range, and I don't see this. Maybe not ideal perhaps but certainly doesn't look "December-like", at least in the mean for whatever that is worth. Then again, I did not look at individual members and did not see the other global ensembles, so maybe there's something more hidden in there that I'm missing (quite possible!). Just for example, here's the mean 500mb from the 00Z at 384h: And the same plot, from 06Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I mean, Euro at 240 doesn't look /terrible/..., I love that the freezing 850 line is somewhere near the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Eps and 6z gefs still like late next week. Fairly similar actually. I'm still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I love that the freezing 850 line is somewhere near the Canadian border. He must have been looking at the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I agree with this. All his posts do are highlight possibilities not probabilities. If the Sunday event trends about 100 miles north we are looking at a possibility of flurries/showers. Just a couple of days ago we had about 100 posts about light snow showers. It's worth talking about and it is possible that could happen. In a winter like this, what's wrong with it? The long range thread doesn't always have to be about a MECS. Sunday probably should be in the short range thread now. He went on and on about a mild rainer ad nauseam. Dead horse beaten. Once it was clear there was a GL low, mid levels wrecked. Ballgame over. And maps, maps, he posts so many maps. He just needs to tone it down a bit. Anyway, looking forward to my heavy rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 6z GEFS looks pretty nice towards the end of the run. Looks like an east based -NAO, GOA low retrogrades somewhat, big ridge over western Canada/AK. Wouldn't be a bad look as we head into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 6z GEFS looks pretty nice towards the end of the run. Looks like an east based -NAO, GOA low retrogrades somewhat, big ridge over western Canada/AK. Wouldn't be a bad look as we head into Feb.Short of defaulting to a strong Niño climate, neither the models nor the mets can say with any real certainty what will happen outside of the short range. Not a bash, just the reality of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Short of defaulting to a strong Niño climate, neither the models nor the mets can say with any real certainty what will happen outside of the short range. Not a bash, just the reality of this winter. Agreed. I still look at the LR ens guidance, and better to see something palatable than the opposite. Who knows if its even close to reality. Makes me feel better this morning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't look at any of the ensembles day 12-15 it's bad. Took a sudden nose dive last two runs. last nights eps ggem gefs imply a return to the December like pattern. It's not a relax or pullback it's a pretty awful look and one that could take a long time to get out of. day 7-8 threat actually looks better on eps then gefs right now. Hope we score soon because our window might slam shut soon. Hopefully it was a bad run I hope it's right. I'll take that over cold/dry warm/wet pattern we've had this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't look at any of the ensembles day 12-15 it's bad. Took a sudden nose dive last two runs. last nights eps ggem gefs imply a return to the December like pattern. It's not a relax or pullback it's a pretty awful look and one that could take a long time to get out of. day 7-8 threat actually looks better on eps then gefs right now. Hope we score soon because our window might slam shut soon. Hopefully it was a bad run What is your view on this. Do you believe that the warm up has staying power or do you believe there is a reasonable opportunity for a reserve back to a colder regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Short of defaulting to a strong Niño climate, neither the models nor the mets can say with any real certainty what will happen outside of the short range. Not a bash, just the reality of this winter. Absolutely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 What is your view on this. Do you believe that the warm up has staying power or do you believe there is a reasonable opportunity for a reserve back to a colder regime? Day 10+ is talk that would be better reserved for the fantasy range thread. As far as I can see, we have no reliable tools for on the ground weather past about 5-7 days, and 7 is stretching it. Pattern, maybe. Actual weather, I have seen no evidence of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Day 10+ is talk that would be better reserved for the fantasy range thread. As far as I can see, we have no reliable tools for on the ground weather past about 5-7 days, and 7 is stretching it. Pattern, maybe. Actual weather, I have seen no evidence of it. Agreed. Do you blame this on the strong El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Agreed. Do you blame this on the strong El Nino? I don't know enough to blame it on anything. I just pay attention to what I've seen. I've seen nothing that gives me confidence in any solution at almost any range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't look at any of the ensembles day 12-15 it's bad. Took a sudden nose dive last two runs. last nights eps ggem gefs imply a return to the December like pattern. It's not a relax or pullback it's a pretty awful look and one that could take a long time to get out of. day 7-8 threat actually looks better on eps then gefs right now. Hope we score soon because our window might slam shut soon. Hopefully it was a bad run I'm not worried until it becomes clear that it's a long duration type of look. I'm definitely not sold on that type of trough west/ridge east persistent look. My guess as we move forward in time that we have some sort of pull back for 4 days or so and then things start to amplify again with the southern jet. The higher heights in eastern Canada will keep the storm track south of us or near us in general. Not cold but not torch. Amplifying waves will bring down cooler/colder air at times. Probably above normal on the means but no a torch. What I don't think is going to happen is a deep trough in the west being persistent with abundant warmth pumping up the east coast in front of a string of cutters. Just a total wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Cohen is starting to give up it seems. Tho he pulled out a classic Ji in that 'it only snowed for three weeks in Boston last year'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not worried until it becomes clear that it's a long duration type of look. I'm definitely not sold on that type of trough west/ridge east persistent look. My guess as we move forward in time that we have some sort of pull back for 4 days or so and then things start to amplify again with the southern jet. The higher heights in eastern Canada will keep the storm track south of us or near us in general. Not cold but not torch. Amplifying waves will bring down cooler/colder air at times. Probably above normal on the means but no a torch. What I don't think is going to happen is a deep trough in the west being persistent with abundant warmth pumping up the east coast in front of a string of cutters. Just a total wag. Isn't it the transition phases that have traditionally blown up the biggest storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Isn't it the transition phases that have traditionally blown up the biggest storms? Yes. Generally speaking the big MA storms are favored during a relaxation of the AO/NAO. Of course much more goes into that statement than just the AO. That period is centered around the 21-23rd from how it looks right now. Beyond looks fairly hostile in the blocking dept. Just have to let it play out and see what pops up. I'm definitely not sold on the back to back cutoff crawlers that the euro op spit out the last 2 runs. I would guess that idea goes away today or sometime over the weekend. If not, it's a major score for an op at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Cohen is starting to give up it seems. Tho he pulled out a classic Ji in that 'it only snowed for three weeks in Boston last year'. SSW + superblock incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I did not see the EPS or GGEM ensembles, but did take a look at the GEFS mean pattern in that time range, and I don't see this. Maybe not ideal perhaps but certainly doesn't look "December-like", at least in the mean for whatever that is worth. Then again, I did not look at individual members and did not see the other global ensembles, so maybe there's something more hidden in there that I'm missing (quite possible!). The GEFS does show some hope way at the end, but I would argue its still not a great look for snow, and it did improve 6z but of the 3 the GEFS is the best look which isn't saying much. The GGEM is a complete disaster. I will post the H5 and temperature anamoly below but its not a good pattern at all. EPS is possibly even worse. It moves the negatives off the Pacific NW closer in so that it floods north america with mild air. Then it relocates the greatest H5 positive heights over new england. It shows us around +5 850s in the day 12-15 period. It weakens towards the end but that's simply because further out it time things smooth out due to variability. Its an awful look and fits what the weeklies were advertising last night. The EPS is the one that really advertises a december like pattern the most. The GGEM is almost as bad, and the GEFS is just blah That said its not hopeless and I was probably more jaded by the negative trend going on, but its still far enough out that it is not set in stone that we even end up into that pattern. It could be a bad run or two. The ensembles did something similar about a week ago, then flipped back. The up down roller coaster continues, last night was a down in my opinion. I am speaking long range, I still think next week has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What is your view on this. Do you believe that the warm up has staying power or do you believe there is a reasonable opportunity for a reserve back to a colder regime? I think we have seen enough this year to say that things are skewed warm and it is likely due to the super nino enhanced pacific jet. Even when we have all the indices in a good phase its a fight just to get a week to end up average temps. That jet is always there ready to flood warm air into the pattern. If things do line up bad, (+NAO+EPO-PNA) for instance we would probably torch again bad. That said we are heading into a period that is our prime snow climo and historically when a nino can produce if it is going to at all. I think our chances of any sustained true cold is pretty low, a day or two here or there maybe but anything more is a lost cause IMO. As for snow, I think our best chances are to get something like feb 87 or march 58, both storms that happened in periods that werent really cold. It was 50 the day before and 70 a day after march 58 and 50s either side of 87. As the jet relaxes later in winter we can hope to get a decent stj system to undercut the ridging and if there is some high pressure north of us at the time we can get a wet snowstorm that way. Something where its 45-50 the day before but just cold enough for snow with a good track. If we can get the ridging to pull back to the NW a little bit that isn't hard to imagine. Need some luck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Para GFS (06z) has decent precip in the area for day 7 event (next Thursday PM and Friday)... although temps look borderline for some of it (not all though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I don't know enough to blame it on anything. I just pay attention to what I've seen. I've seen nothing that gives me confidence in any solution at almost any range. any forecast past 3 days is low confidence. But since we haven't had much of anything inside 5 days even to discuss this year we have talked about long range pattern chasing, its all we have. Otherwise this would be a pretty boring forum this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Para GFS (06z) has decent precip in the area for day 7 event (next Thursday PM and Friday)... although temps look borderline for some of it (not all though). Not a bad h5 look. We can work with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not worried until it becomes clear that it's a long duration type of look. I'm definitely not sold on that type of trough west/ridge east persistent look. My guess as we move forward in time that we have some sort of pull back for 4 days or so and then things start to amplify again with the southern jet. The higher heights in eastern Canada will keep the storm track south of us or near us in general. Not cold but not torch. Amplifying waves will bring down cooler/colder air at times. Probably above normal on the means but no a torch. What I don't think is going to happen is a deep trough in the west being persistent with abundant warmth pumping up the east coast in front of a string of cutters. Just a total wag. I would tend to agree, but the super basin wide nino kind of throws a wildcard into it. I could see anything happening and wouldn't be that surprised. The EPS would argue we are going to torch with a sick eastern ridge showing up but its just one run and outside reliable range so your probably right its either temporary or overdone. I sure hope so because I bought a snowblower and a snow suit for my 14 month old and I would like to get to use both at least once or twice this year! ETA: just to be clear I don't mind shoveling snow but I have a 400 yard driveway up the mountain my house is on and there is no way I could get that done in a timely manner to get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Is the GFS doing this stupid early wave thing again from 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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