Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Maybe by 12z tomorrow the Sunday storm will be trying to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 CMC doesn't pull a GFS but is a rainstorm for the area next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Maybe by 12z tomorrow the Sunday storm will be trying to come up the coast. It's coming north!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its just one op run not too worried yet, its also possible that that first wave if real could trend stronger and be something also, still a window there I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Maybe by 12z tomorrow the Sunday storm will be trying to come up the coast. Wow you are an optimist!! I will ride with you on that one. Why not nothing else going on since I would be finished tracking Hurricane Alex. Honestly though back on Tues I put all my eggs in the Sunday Monday basket but now I know this has like lesd than 10% chance of making the turn up the coast but I will dream. Honestly also maybe it does try to make a come back you know I will be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped clubpretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well no and perhaps I'm a dick to keep reminding people these things. Tho I do think it's worth going back to winterwxluvr's comments that at a certain range even the ensembles don't necessarily tell you the right story. We've had so many times with models all locking in together at range only to see it fall apart later but it still sucks people back in every time. That said and as you know the pattern looks quite passable from here until about the time of that storm next week. Even after then it might be workable but it's not as good, and potentially we fully break down for at least a while. As has been said a number of times.. so many waves. I was being the smart-ass. LolI've been sorta expecting something to dig mid week because it didn't totally make sense for a total squash job with a continuous flow of pac waves. Not saying the gfs just has an epiphany. Just that having something more than a totally sheared and flat disturbance is far from a stretch. I remember more than once when the eps saw nothing and suddenly after an op run showing something the medium range the eps suddenly jumped all over it. It's tricky stuff for sure but I get sucked in as much as the next guy. My guess is the gfs went a little haywire but the chance at the midweek wave doing more than nothing is certainly something to consider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's coming north!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yeah I know Bob. Just saying. I just don't think anyone can have any real confidence with so many players on the field plus that simple fact alone argues against any sort of sizable snow event IMO. Can happen just tough even with help elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 image.jpegBullish. I did introduce chance of light rain/snow late Sunday into new CWG forecast. Funny people declared the Euro right even tho they both generally met in the middle so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Bullish. I did introduce chance of light rain/snow late Sunday into new CWG forecast. Funny people declared the Euro right even tho they both generally met in the middle so far.There's some energy floating through in no man's land between the ull and coastal. Would provide some lift if we can get some moisture. I think we could get a period of snow showers sometime early next week with the proximity to the ull as well. Downsloping won't help but there should be some instability around along with lake streamers. Should feel wintry for the balance of next week even if our shovels stay dusty in the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol later run gfs is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If I could make a suggestion here...Since we discuss both shorter term and longer term threats here...If, when you talk about a storm, if you could say which one (I guess a date would be enough) you're talking about (Gets a little confusing if you're just reading through). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Things seem to be changing quickly. Keeping it cold is the first thing. Models do not seem to be able to figure much out past three or so days. 18z had a stripe of snow showers in SE VA; now a much larger area getting close to metro area. I'm liking that trend. A number of people have said recently that something good could pop up out of the blue. Maybe Sunday night-Monday morning is it. We just don't recognize it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just need a couple inches of snow to stop the grass from growing It was 18 degrees the other night. Not sure what kind of grass you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Gefs says fasten your seat belt. Big spread early on. Anything is possible next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 wishcast GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped clubpretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 lol later run gfs is the worst Stay positive, like the NAO is clearly doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast. The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern Too many Images. Not coming producing more than flurries unless the kick from the northern stream is much weaker, which is a very outside chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 wishcast lolll meanwhile every 00z model was NW. #facts 6Z also Had higher heights again 4 runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Said a few days ago we need another re-shuffle, and still think that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I mean, Euro at 240 doesn't look /terrible/..., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 6z still has it but it is not amped and stays progressive. brushes the MA as it scoots off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well I am guessing the euro was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looks like 6z dropped the idea of the midweek wave amplifying into an actual low like the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast. The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern I am almost positive that you are seeing stuff that is not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Flurries...onto Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am almost positive that you are seeing stuff that is not there. This might be your best post ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ravens94 is fine. He is entertaining and at least optimistic. Plenty of downers running around. His couple posts in the thread don't make it harder for people to read the other posts. It isn't like the news in the other posts is good anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I take some solace in what Ian said - that we have had many times where everything came together and at the last minute fall apart. Eh, less heart ache for weenies since nothing really is on the table so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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