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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Maybe by 12z tomorrow the Sunday storm will be trying to come up the coast.

Wow you are an optimist!! I will ride with you on that one. Why not nothing else going on since I would be finished tracking Hurricane Alex. Honestly though back on Tues I put all my eggs in the Sunday Monday basket but now I know this has like lesd than 10% chance of making the turn up the coast but I will dream. Honestly also maybe it does try to make a come back you know I will be watching.

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GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. 
GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. 
UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club
pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.
The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern

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Well no and perhaps I'm a dick to keep reminding people these things. Tho I do think it's worth going back to winterwxluvr's comments that at a certain range even the ensembles don't necessarily tell you the right story. We've had so many times with models all locking in together at range only to see it fall apart later but it still sucks people back in every time.

That said and as you know the pattern looks quite passable from here until about the time of that storm next week. Even after then it might be workable but it's not as good, and potentially we fully break down for at least a while.

As has been said a number of times.. so many waves.

I was being the smart-ass. Lol

I've been sorta expecting something to dig mid week because it didn't totally make sense for a total squash job with a continuous flow of pac waves. Not saying the gfs just has an epiphany. Just that having something more than a totally sheared and flat disturbance is far from a stretch.

I remember more than once when the eps saw nothing and suddenly after an op run showing something the medium range the eps suddenly jumped all over it. It's tricky stuff for sure but I get sucked in as much as the next guy.

My guess is the gfs went a little haywire but the chance at the midweek wave doing more than nothing is certainly something to consider

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Yeah I know Bob. Just saying. I just don't think anyone can have any real confidence with so many players on the field plus that simple fact alone argues against any sort of sizable snow event IMO. Can happen just tough even with help elsewhere.

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Bullish. I did introduce chance of light rain/snow late Sunday into new CWG forecast. Funny people declared the Euro right even tho they both generally met in the middle so far.

There's some energy floating through in no man's land between the ull and coastal. Would provide some lift if we can get some moisture.

I think we could get a period of snow showers sometime early next week with the proximity to the ull as well. Downsloping won't help but there should be some instability around along with lake streamers. Should feel wintry for the balance of next week even if our shovels stay dusty in the garage.

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Things seem to be changing quickly. Keeping it cold is the first thing. Models do not seem to be able to figure much out past three or so days. 18z had a stripe of snow showers in SE VA; now a much larger area getting close to metro area. I'm liking that trend. A number of people have said recently that something good could pop up out of the blue. Maybe Sunday night-Monday morning is it. We just don't recognize it yet.

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wishcast 

 

GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. 
GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. 
UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club
pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.
The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern

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GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. 

GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. 

UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club

pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.

The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern

Too many Images. Not coming producing more than flurries unless the kick from the northern stream is much weaker, which is a very outside chance.

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GGEM is Starting to go with a more Amped and stronger storm Sunday. 

GFS is speeding up the SW and phasing it more and more the past 3 runs. If it speeds up anymore its gonna be coming Well NW in a hurry. 

UKMET is also joining the stronger NW more amped club

pretty sure everyone has dumped Sunday But me and a few others.But this is typically the time you would see a shift back NW as the energy is getting closer and closer to being sampled. 6z-12z it will be on the west coast.

The models are definitely speeding up the vort and that should continue in this pattern

I am almost positive that you are seeing stuff that is not there.  

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