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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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It did come in with a fury. I may be wrong but I think the first wave came through and as it sunk south it sort of morphed with the main precip. mass and the the whole thing starting to slowly move northward and over spread the region.

The northward progression moved at a snails pace but once it reached you it was right into 1-2 inch per hour rates. Areas that weren't all that farther to the north had to wait for the snow to reach them.

I distinctly remember looking at the radar at 2 a.m. and we were covered in greens but it was still virga as the cold air took it's grip and temporarily dried things out. I fell asleep shortly after. when I awoke 4 hours later snowfall rates were intense and there might have been 5-6 inches already. Temps were approaching single digits.

Same. Lived in Montgomery village at the time. Went to bed around 1 or 2. Woke up around sunrise to 6-8" and piling. That was just an absolute dumping of snow. Rivaled 96 for me.

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You guys in the city can salivate over this a little bit. 18Z Cobb for DCA:

 

160122/1200Z 114 08010KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
160122/1500Z 117 06014KT 28.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 120 05015KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 123 03012KT 30.3F SNOW 4:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.226 10:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 126 04020KT 29.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 10:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 129 03024KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.183 9:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 132 36021KT 26.7F SNOW 15:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.366 10:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.36 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 135 36019KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.546 11:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 138 35022KT 24.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 11:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.06 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 141 34020KT 24.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0

 

Edit: And yes that is almost 7 inches of snow in 3 hours from 132 to 135.

 

Edit 2: IAD is 26.9 inches, BWI is 20.0, MRB is 16.6

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 the fact that 18z  gfs   just 100% fooking    caved into the   12z  eirp and  12z  eps  is  GOOD sign 

 

 This is just an ass kicking

 

attachicon.gifYES.png

 

So...18Z GFS ops a bit farther south and west of the 12Z GEFS mean with the surface low, and a better thermal profile as far as I can see.  And the high to the north is a tad stronger in the 18Z ops.

 

(ETA:  and the 12Z GEFS mean was itself already pretty nice as I recall).

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You guys in the city can salivate over this a little bit. 18Z Cobb for DCA:

 

160122/1200Z 114 08010KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0

160122/1500Z 117 06014KT 28.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0

160122/1800Z 120 05015KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160122/2100Z 123 03012KT 30.3F SNOW 4:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.226 10:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0

160123/0000Z 126 04020KT 29.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 10:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0

160123/0300Z 129 03024KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.183 9:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0

160123/0600Z 132 36021KT 26.7F SNOW 15:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.366 10:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.36 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

160123/0900Z 135 36019KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.546 11:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91 100| 0| 0

160123/1200Z 138 35022KT 24.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 11:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.06 100| 0| 0

160123/1500Z 141 34020KT 24.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0

 

Edit: And yes that is almost 7 inches of snow in 3 hours from 132 to 135.

21.8 inches total

Fluff to concrete then back to fluff

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Mods, a thought. Should there be separate threads for each model run so in the future quck reference can be made to locate stuff instead of having it buried in one long thread? If you do, keep most recent and previous run pinned and rotate oldest out of pinned status as each new run begins. Just a thought.

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  can u call up     eiither   CHO or RIC?

 

You guys in the city can salivate over this a little bit. 18Z Cobb for DCA:

 

160122/1200Z 114 08010KT 29.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
160122/1500Z 117 06014KT 28.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
160122/1800Z 120 05015KT 27.8F SNOW 13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160122/2100Z 123 03012KT 30.3F SNOW 4:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.226 10:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0
160123/0000Z 126 04020KT 29.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 10:1| 7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0
160123/0300Z 129 03024KT 31.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.183 9:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 100| 0| 0
160123/0600Z 132 36021KT 26.7F SNOW 15:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.366 10:1| 14.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.36 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
160123/0900Z 135 36019KT 26.5F SNOW 12:1| 6.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.546 11:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91 100| 0| 0
160123/1200Z 138 35022KT 24.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 11:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.06 100| 0| 0
160123/1500Z 141 34020KT 24.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 11:1| 21.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0

 

Edit: And yes that is almost 7 inches of snow in 3 hours from 132 to 135.

 

Edit 2: IAD is 26.9 inches, BWI is 20.0, MRB is 16.6

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What was the extent of the modeling "consensus" for NYC area in late last Jan's storm? I know the euro for a few runs at least showed NYC with a storm that would have put the 1888 blizzard to shame. The city end up with a solid SECS/MECS but nothing like (most) forecasts were blaring. Lots of "bust" rhetoric since the NYC media market

wasn,t obliterated even though the storm was considered, in general, well forecast. Except that the western edge was not nailed down real well. Verified for BOS/SNE of course but what else is new? So there is a cautionary tale In there for us.

Other than perhaps Feb. 5-6, 2010, I'm trying to recall the last time the major global models and their corresponding ensembles have been so bullish at this range.  That's what is so striking to me in a lot of ways.  Usually it's one or the other that's gung-ho, while the other is not so much.  Or the ensembles aren't supportive while the ops runs are, etc.  This is pretty universal agreement, all things considered.  Not saying it won't change going forward, but still.

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Meh, sun-angle. It snowed most of the day here today and never accumulated at all. Next.

Still got 3-4 weeks till sun angle season. :P

I'd be more worried that we don't get big storms in Jan these days. But the sorta weekend rule might counteract that.

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