wawarriors4 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Helps that the 72 hr QPF is 5.15 around EZF At hr 162 that is We all know that will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Has me here in pa getting 4" You need to sacrifice for us. You'll understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 nah this is the time northerners feel the pain! Muuuhahahaha Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Don't do it. It's not mid week yet...plenty of ways for this to trend badly for any of us....or trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think I'll take the Euro over the DGEX which bullseyes the Shenandoah Valley. But I have some skin in the game though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Come now, we all know the DGEX is just another one of those fun models we make fun of... but it's certainly not that outlandish like the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I hope you're kidding. It's the dgex and 120 hours away. No one knows exactly where the edge will be yet but certainly not the dgexI do worry about suppression rearing its ugly head going forward, but not with the DGEX at any range . As long as Dr. No and the EPS are on board all is well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Come now, we all know the DGEX is just another one of those fun models we make fun of... but it's certainly not that outlandish like the CRAS I'm not sold until Ji's "precious" is on board (the JMA)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm def not sold on the high teens and low 20's being spit out. I should have quantified it. What could keep this from being less than a 5-10" around the area? I have seen no warning shots today at all and we're getting close to lock in time for a big miller A event. They always have the longest leads in model land. Unlike miller b's where 2 hours after onset is still too early to trust models Miller A is fine, as long as it tracks far enough west for Western MD and VA. Current modeled look is a Miller A-B hybrid like 1996 or 2010. That is ideal for the entire area.to get clobbered (accept the DCA snowhole of course). Hopefully it locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gefs mean track is good. A bit nw of the eps through the SE but same result off of OBX. There is a small cluster of lows in KY. Overall quite supportive of everything else we've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the main event that started very late that Saturday night, as I recall, blew up quickly. As in there were reports the snow just suddenly went BOOM sometime after 2AM. I remember waking up early Sunday with about 6" on the ground, and being surprised it was already that deep at that point in time. It was originally booked as pretty much a Sunday/Sunday night event, I think. It did come in with a fury. I may be wrong but I think the first wave came through and as it sunk south it sort of morphed with the main precip. mass and the the whole thing starting to slowly move northward and over spread the region. The northward progression moved at a snails pace but once it reached you it was right into 1-2 inch per hour rates. Areas that weren't all that farther to the north had to wait for the snow to reach them. I distinctly remember looking at the radar at 2 a.m. and we were covered in greens but it was still virga as the cold air took it's grip and temporarily dried things out. I fell asleep shortly after. when I awoke 4 hours later snowfall rates were intense and there might have been 5-6 inches already. Temps were approaching single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Other than perhaps Feb. 5-6, 2010, I'm trying to recall the last time the major global models and their corresponding ensembles have been so bullish at this range. That's what is so striking to me in a lot of ways. Usually it's one or the other that's gung-ho, while the other is not so much. Or the ensembles aren't supportive while the ops runs are, etc. This is pretty universal agreement, all things considered. Not saying it won't change going forward, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 black ops (you know who you are) check your PMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gefs mean track is good. A bit nw of the eps through the SE but same result off of OBX. There is a small cluster of lows in KY. Overall quite supportive of everything else we've seen The ones that push the primary into KY...do they re-develop off the coast too? And are they at least reasonably decent? Good to hear the mean track is very similar to overall guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The ones that push the primary into KY...do they re-develop off the coast too? And are they at least reasonably decent? Good to hear the mean track is very similar to overall guidance right now. Can't tell yet. Panels still loading. Looks like some misses mixed in from what I can tell so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Early DGEX from 2010 ended up verifying though no? Maybe I'm remembering wrong Hello there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It did come in with a fury. I may be wrong but I think the first wave came through and as it sunk south it sort of morphed with the main precip. mass and the the whole thing starting to slowly move northward and over spread the region. The northward progression moved at a snails pace but once it reached you it was right into 1-2 inch per hour rates. Areas that weren't all that farther to the north had to wait for the snow to reach them. I distinctly remember looking at the radar at 2 a.m. and we were covered in greens but it was still virga as the cold air took it's grip and temporarily dried things out. I fell asleep shortly after. when I awoke 4 hours later snowfall rates were intense and there might have been 5-6 inches already. Temps were approaching single digits. Yep, that all sounds about right. I woke up early Sunday morning and I couldn't believe what I was seeing.... there had to be at least 7" OTG by 7am and it was coming down furiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Other than perhaps Feb. 5-6, 2010, I'm trying to recall the last time the major global models and their corresponding ensembles have been so bullish at this range. That's what is so striking to me in a lot of ways. Usually it's one or the other that's gung-ho, while the other is not so much. Or the ensembles aren't supportive while the ops runs are, etc. This is pretty universal agreement, all things considered. Not saying it won't change going forward, but still. February 2007 looked amazing about 3-4 days out, like a potential MECS/HECS, then there was a nasty north shift. That's a good cautionary reminder for us not to get too sucked in 5 days out, even if all the models agree like they did back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let's keep this thread clean. Too much memory lane going on in a disco thread. 18z gefs definitely a step back from 12z. Not as many hits or big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GEFS.. a few misses, but overall not bad. E4 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I moved up here because of the 2010 blizzard. I did not enjoy rain and tears in Norfolk during your rakage. Therefore, this is my redemption storm. 18z GFS all in FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 black ops (you know who you are) check your PMs Storm Mode time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GEFS.. a few misses, but overall not bad. E4 please Looks more hit or miss... more biggies but also more whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 the fact that 18z gfs just 100% fooking caved into the 12z eirp and 12z eps is GOOD sign This is just an ass kicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In PDII it felt like it snowed moderately for two days. One of my fav storms. Top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z gefs mean track is good. A bit nw of the eps through the SE but same result off of OBX. There is a small cluster of lows in KY. Overall quite supportive of everything else we've seen Yup, good mean track, mean snowfall 8" at DC. I counted 3 members with a primary track too far north and 3 members that are too progressive and take the low OTS. I think the latter is something to keep an eye on as I believe only 1 member at 12z did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks more hit or miss... more biggies but also more whiffs. And several of those whiffs aren't so much the appearance of a change-over to something non-snowy, but more the look of a weaker system that has lighter amounts pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 the fact that 18z gfs just 100% fooking caved into the 12z eirp and 12z eps is GOOD sign Agreed...the tea kettle is brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So who is opening the new thread? Maybe after the Euro tonight? Hush!! Really?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oh. Uhhhh. I mean. Nevermind. Delete that. LOL, sorry. Didn't mean to sound harsh like that, but the idea of starting a storm thread is kind of taboo right now! Apologies if my comment came off wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LOL, sorry. Didn't mean to sound harsh like that, but the idea of starting a storm thread is kind of taboo right now! Apologies if my comment came off wrong. Hahahaha. All good my friend. No worries. I deleted though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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