84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Somebody post a 15:1 snow map Doing the math based on liquid would put it near 38 inches in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How long until the north and west gang starts talking about being fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Too early for the bus unless tracker is driving it. Need to wait a couple more runs. Then the ensembles probably will give us a pretty good picture of what is gonna happen. This is getting close to the time when they nailed the feb 2010 event. I'm scheduled to write another article to CWG tomorrow.Can't wait to read it. I have been waiting 6 years for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not really buying the >24hrs duration. This run is a little closer to 24hrs. Hard for any storm to dump for more than that. 12-18 hours with accumulating snow is more typical. It si though I think the 1996 storm lasted that long but never really got the S+ rates, moe like moderate forever. I'm not using it or any other storm as an analog just saying that long durating snows occasionally happen but as you note, they are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z DGEX is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm having a really hard time finding a reason why this won't be a pretty significant event. The table is mostly set by hr90. Yea, mixing and other stuff is on the table but I don't see how things could go totally awry. Well...if I had to play Debbie Downer: 1. That weak little s/w midweek helps hold in the confluence a bit as HM talks about on Twitter. So, need to have that progress consistently. 2. The shortwaves phase beautifully on the 18z GFS. If the timing gets adjusted a bit, the northern stream could slip right past the southern stream s/w or vice versa (sort of like today I suppose) and we could end up with a more minor event. All of that said, some pretty impressive solutions the last 24-36 hours from the NWP. If 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow hold the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In PDII it felt like it snowed moderately for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Better sun angle than Feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yes but we have never had a model the caliber of the GFS show this. Oh we absolutely have. 2009 and 2010 had many runs like this. (I can't remember with 100% certainty and I think I've lost the original, but my sig is one such image from what I believe was a GFS run in 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well that was an absurd run...If we keep getting solutions like that the forum is going to need that upgrade ASAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well...if I had to play Debbie Downer: 1. That weak little s/w midweek helps hold in the confluence a bit as HM talks about on Twitter. So, need to have that progress consistently. 2. The shortwaves phase beautifully on the 18z GFS. If the timing gets adjusted a bit, the northern stream could slip right past the southern stream s/w or vice versa (sort of like today I suppose) and we could end up with a more minor event. All of that said, some pretty impressive solutions the last 24-36 hours from the NWP. If 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow hold the line... I'm def not sold on the high teens and low 20's being spit out. I should have quantified it. What could keep this from being less than a 5-10" around the area? I have seen no warning shots today at all and we're getting close to lock in time for a big miller A event. They always have the longest leads in model land. Unlike miller b's where 2 hours after onset is still too early to trust models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Well...if I had to play Debbie Downer: 1. That weak little s/w midweek helps hold in the confluence a bit as HM talks about on Twitter. So, need to have that progress consistently. 2. The shortwaves phase beautifully on the 18z GFS. If the timing gets adjusted a bit, the northern stream could slip right past the southern stream s/w or vice versa (sort of like today I suppose) and we could end up with a more minor event. All of that said, some pretty impressive solutions the last 24-36 hours from the NWP. If 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow hold the line... Good psot, I think having a debby downer at this stage is wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I cant remember a better GFS run for the city itself ever. Maybe some of the runs in 2010 were comparable. I think a remember a few of them with close to 3 inches liquid. This one is over 2 inches liquid for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I want wind with my snow. I hope this can deliver on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oh we absolutely have. 2009 and 2010 had many runs like this.Not for DC if I recall correctly, us yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the H5 closes off to the south, maybe the interaction with the SLP slows it down? Isn't that what kind of happened in the '96 storm? I don't remember 96 specifically (I suppose I could look at the NARR), but if the storm stacks vertically in the ideal spot, it can just sit and fill and snow itself out over some lucky spot. Some of the early runs for Feb 5-6, 2010, showed some really long durations and I think it ended up pretty close to 24 hours of real snow. It si though I think the 1996 storm lasted that long but never really got the S+ rates, moe like moderate forever. I'm not using it or any other storm as an analog just saying that long durating snows occasionally happen but as you note, they are rare. In PDII it felt like it snowed moderately for two days. PD2 is Baltimore's record holder because I think BWI reported snow constantly for something ridiculous for like 3.5 days. There was a weak little wave that produced an a little snow a couple days before the big event and then BWI somehow managed to constantly report --SN forever until PD2 hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I want wind with my snow. I hope this can deliver on that. No wind. It makes measuring impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Too early for the bus unless tracker is driving it. Need to wait a couple more runs. Then the ensembles probably will give us a pretty good picture of what is gonna happen. This is getting close to the time when they nailed the feb 2010 event. I'm scheduled to write another article to CWG tomorrow. Yup...I wouldnt' start that thing up until Tuesday afternoon at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not really buying the >24hrs duration. This run is a little closer to 24hrs. Hard for any storm to dump for more than that. 12-18 hours with accumulating snow is more typical. All about the 500 closing off. If that doesn't happen at the right time or spot, we are left with something modest. That is of course the more likely scenario, but damn if it isn't fun to dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Having the Euro and GFS on the same page for a foot plus for DC is jebwalk worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yup...I wouldnt' start that thing up until Tuesday afternoon at the earliest.At least wax the rims and put the music list in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Having the Euro and GFS on the same page for a foot plus for DC is jebwalk worthy Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm def not sold on the high teens and low 20's being spit out. I should have quantified it. What could keep this from being less than a 5-10" around the area? I have seen no warning shots today at all and we're getting close to lock in time for a big miller A event. They always have the longest leads in model land. Unlike miller b's where 2 hours after onset is still too early to trust models If I had to put money down, I'd say suppression was still the biggest threat to warning-level snow (more so than a cutter and mixing). As Ian reminds us, suppression is a superNino habit. If that weak s/w midweek blows up more of it the northern stream s/w (that phases on the 18z GFS) gets bigger, maybe one of those squashes the southern s/w. That's what happened today, so maybe it's just a recency bias talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 96' ...was like 40 hours non freakin stop . PD2 was close to 30 I believe . 1996 - snowed for about 32 2003 - snowed for 30 hours if you include the 6 hours of sleet we had in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 PD2 is Baltimore's record holder because I think BWI reported snow constantly for something ridiculous for like 3.5 days. There was a weak little wave that produced an a little snow a couple days before the big event and then BWI somehow managed to constantly report --SN forever until PD2 hit. Actually, BWI had a break in snow from around 5 pm Saturday until 3 am Sunday. And then of course nearly whole day break between Monday morning and Tuesday upper low snow. LWX insisted on combining all three parts but I think that was sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 All about the 500 closing off. If that doesn't happen at the right time or spot, we are left with something modest. That is of course the more likely scenario, but damn if it isn't fun to dream. Exactly. 500mb progression on the 18z GFS is beautiful. I was skeptical of the Euro runs from a few days ago with this storm turning into some giant cutoff because of the flow being so fast. A faster solution leaves us with a less HECSy solution for sure. But still could be fun. We'll root for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't remember 96 specifically (I suppose I could look at the NARR), but if the storm stacks vertically in the ideal spot, it can just sit and fill and snow itself out over some lucky spot. Some of the early runs for Feb 5-6, 2010, showed some really long durations and I think it ended up pretty close to 24 hours of real snow. It started snowing here around 9 AM that Friday morning and didn't stop until early afternoon Saturday. So, we got about 28 hours worth. Unfortunately, it didn't begin accumulating here until near dusk. We lost 8 hours worth of accumulations. One of the things that really knocks that storm down on my list. The first foot was also paste. That storm had potential to be a 40" here, if it had only been a couple degrees colder. Feb 5-6 I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Exactly. 500mb progression on the 18z GFS is beautiful. I was skeptical of the Euro runs from a few days ago with this storm turning into some giant cutoff because of the flow being so fast. A faster solution leaves us with a less HECSy solution for sure. But still could be fun. We'll root for the phase. The coastal today definitely seemed to be a fast mover tho not sure that means anything for the next one. I'm cautiously optimistic until Tuesday or Wednesday. Been thru this dog and pony show before enough times. It's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z DGEX is weather porn if you go by the 6hr snowfall at 138 and 144... also if you check the total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LOL smokedashell18zGFS1-17-16LMAO.gif Ho. Lee. Crap! I think that's about the maximum that we can possibly see in a model run, honestly. The thing now is, let's not hope that it "improves", but rather that this kind of solution is shown again and again. And again. Right up to start time. Well...if I had to play Debbie Downer: 1. That weak little s/w midweek helps hold in the confluence a bit as HM talks about on Twitter. So, need to have that progress consistently. 2. The shortwaves phase beautifully on the 18z GFS. If the timing gets adjusted a bit, the northern stream could slip right past the southern stream s/w or vice versa (sort of like today I suppose) and we could end up with a more minor event. All of that said, some pretty impressive solutions the last 24-36 hours from the NWP. If 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow hold the line... Some very good points, though one shouldn't be considered a Debbie Downer to mention these various caveats. I think most everyone in here knows the drill, what can go wrong, what can go right, etc. But the thing is, as I've said before (and others, surely), it's good at this range to see something in the range of a solid though possibly imperfect event on up to a major, crippling HECS. From pretty much every major model suite and their corresponding ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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