Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para almost closes it off on time to have it absolutely bomb, look at the energy rounding the base at 138 hrs, big step towards EURO, im starting to get giddy for something special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 yeah just saw 12z para. It's flatter, more south. and not as intense but colder than its last run and still good snows. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160117%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps= Ops converging on a very favorable track today. If the para went the closed h5 route it would have been a destruction. Even the progressive solution dumps 6-12" everywhere with limited temp problems. I'm not mad at it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ops converging on a very favorable track today. If the para went the closed h5 route it would have been a destruction. Even the progressive solution dumps 6-12" everywhere with limited temp problems. I'm not mad at it. Lol And it screws NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. I'll tell you what I want them to say...."The potential for a significant winter storm to affect the area exists in the Thursday night to Friday time frame. The latest model runs seem to be converging on a system with high potential. Whether this comes to pass will depend on many factors. Time will tell as we get closer to the event and details become more evident." I understand the need for conservatism. My problem is not with what they didn't say, it is how and what they did say. Sorry, you all have your opinions and I have mine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And it screws NE. I'd take the 20 inches the Euro gave us even if NE got 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd take the 20 inches the Euro gave us even if NE got 30... lol I couldn't care less what they get honestly. But if our best shot at all snow is something like the Para, I will take it over something more wound up and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'll tell you what I want them to say...."The potential for a significant winter storm to affect the area exists in the Thursday night to Friday time frame. The latest model runs seem to be converging on a system with high potential. Whether this comes to pass will depend on many factors. Time will tell as we get closer to the event and details become more evident." I understand the need for conservatism. My problem is not with what they didn't say, it is how and what they did say. Sorry, you all have your opinions and I have mine too. Bear in mind that forecast discussion isn't even intended for public reading. It's available but most lay people wouldn't even read that. So I'm not sure a debate over their language is even all that relevant. Although, with social media and internet lay people probably are consuming it. Regardless there's also the potential for a whiff or a solution that is not massive. I think the discussion was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 maybe a lil flurry action Wed night looks like per 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS at 96 has SLP in C AR at 1008mb 102 -- 1005mb SLP in N MS 111 -- 1004mb in NE AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z GFS at 96 has SLP in C AR at 1008mb 102 -- 1005mb SLP in N MS Looks just a bit farther southwest compared to 12z... negligible at this range probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 500mb vorticity looks good to me at 114 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Transfer should be ongoing at 120 if I am reading the IWM maps right... 1002mb SLP in SC at 120... this should be a nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice seeing the gfs back off on the drive to KY as we close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z at 114 is already transferring with the primary over north GA southeast TN. Colder solution and better run upcoming me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18Z is going to be a mauling. Better HP and colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snowing heavily throughout the area at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 998mb SLP near/over ILM at 123... 996mb SLP over HSE at 126... classic crushing incoming 992mb SLP off of VA/NC coast around 100 miles or so at 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oooh...H5 closed off at 129. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice fetch from the carribean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Remarkable consistency from the GFS. We make fun of it a lot but it's been very consistent. Looks even colder to me this run than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 135 is just a complete destruction of DC and the burbs. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IWM snow map is absurd... absolutely smoked and silly as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 HM on twitter likes the setup - midweek wave acts like 50/50 low to keep flow NWerly over the Maritimes and offshore NE which is key to holding cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 22" in DC at 135 hrs... Happy Hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 2 feet at 135 still coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 One of the most insane runs for DC I have ever seen, honestly. 18Z GFS brings the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's basically a 30 hour dump fest for everyone. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Too bad the gfs doesn't have a lightning strike plot. I guarantee there will be some with an h5 progression like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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