DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NOTICE the low is NOT over roanoke where the GFS has it --LOL! -- The agreement here is amazing. We have run to run, model to model and ensemble consistency. I am ALL IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 your assumption is wrong if this is NOT a Miller A Nothing is i'm assuming this is not a miller A? seems to be primarily a big overrunning event at this point more so than a wound up noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think 1922 is still number one in the city. There was a report of 33" in Rock Creek Park from the Knickerbocker (probably at elevation and not where current day Beach Drive is). Nothing that much in the city in 2010. (Of course Knicker is still the official number one at 28" -- at the old official site at M street -- and that will likely never change as long as the reporting station is the airport.) Close, though. I think the top end for this region is sort of in that 28-36" range. Several storms have gotten to that ceiling but not really past in any widespread fashion. There could be a black swan and supposedly the Washington/Jefferson was bigger (though I'm skeptical), but shooting past that might be an unnecessary exercise. As if 28" isn't enough anyway. =p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Probably easiest here if you go to multi-station and set a date range then for snow/sum. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 as side from the fact that you are comparing 126 GFS vs 144 EURO w yes you are right of course you could always compare 126 gs vs 126 euro SEE BELOW Aside from the Euro being farther north along the East Coast than the GFS, you're totally right. gfs_z500_mslp_us_22.png ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png TO MOST PEOPLE having the low over SC is way south of the GFS postion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NOTICE the low is NOT over roanoke where the GFS has it --LOL! -- DT, is that even feasible with the HP up north? Can the low really punch that far north in your opinion? Usually to my very amateur knowledge, cold dense air always wins against low pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I really think this may be what's blows this storm up further than we are expecting. These temperatures this late in year can only happen with 2015 December's. .. Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70 degree water temps awaiting. http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 NOTICE the low is NOT over roanoke where the GFS has it --LOL! -- Yeah the ensemble mean seems a little further south than the operational gfs. But DT on a scale from 1-10 how would you rate the agreement right now between the euro gfs and cmc? 10 being perfect match. Take in to account that we are 5 days out. I would give it a 7 or 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the top end for this region is sort of in that 28-36" range. Several storms have gotten to that ceiling but not really past in any widespread fashion. There could be a black swan and supposedly the Washington/Jefferson was bigger (though I'm skeptical), but shooting past that might be an unnecessary exercise. As if 28" isn't enough anyway. =p Other than Messers #1 and #3 are there any other records of the W/J storm? I know DC was a swamp then, but Baltimore, Richmond, Philly were going concerns. Maybe two of the founding fathers just decided to collude in a lie to bemuse later generations of weather weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The BWI afternoon discussion leaves a lot to be desired...IMO ..LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSSTENNESSEE INTO THE VIRGINIAS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRINGENERGY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIRCIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER QUEBEC AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROMTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS APOSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.MODELS VARY IN TIMING...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE TRACK ANDSTRENGTH OF THE LOW AND SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS ISSPREADING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THANTHE EURO MODEL. THE GFS HAS THE SNOW ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT WHILETHE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THE SNOW ARRIVAL UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.BOTH MODELS KEEP SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AROUND UNTIL AS LATE ASFRIDAY NIGHT...THUS...IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS THEOPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SNOW MAYACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES IN MOST PLACES. ONCE AGAIN...TIMINGDETERMINES A LOT AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIALLOW IS STILL ABOUT 5 DAYS AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 "A few inches in most places" wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good lord you two - for five days out that's a bullish discussion for that office Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's ok lol. Blacksburg has snow showers from this morning and was very vague in there discussion. I mean it's ok to not freak the public out either but also be a little forthcoming. My friends at work don't believe me this is becoming a high possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LWX rule in effect. If they are bearish oil up those shovels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good lord you two - for five days out that's a bullish discussion for that office Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. They want them to say exact what one model run is showing 5 days in advance. 1-30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Agreed. Seems like a fairly standard 'heads up something might be coming' disco. The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. Full agreement Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The fact that it's even discussed in that detail at this range says a lot. I don't know what they were expecting them to say. I'd rather they just leave any accumulation talk out of it if they're going to say that nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd rather they just leave any accumulation talk out of it if they're going to say that nonsense Nonsense? You feel like a foot plus is a lock, huh? Nothing can go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para gfs is a good track with no KY transfer. H5 never closes off but a solid .75-1" of precip through most of the area tapering off as you go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 when the king and his ensemble bury the area five days out there is very good reason to get excited Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para gfs is a good track with no KY transfer. H5 never closes off but a solid .75-1" of precip through most of the area tapering off as you go north. So, a few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd rather they just leave any accumulation talk out of it if they're going to say that nonsense lol read the Mount Holly AFD. They mention snow, but also say it may be more rain if the north trend continues. Uncharacteristically lame for them...I guess they prefer the ops over the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para gfs is a good track with no KY transfer. H5 never closes off but a solid .75-1" of precip through most of the area tapering off as you go north. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160117%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nonsense? You feel like a foot plus is a lock, huh? Nothing can go wrong? I agree with you. Easy to nitpick, but this is still a long lead threat, and plenty can go "wrong". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para gfs is a good track with no KY transfer. H5 never closes off but a solid .75-1" of precip through most of the area tapering off as you go north. yeah just saw 12z para. It's flatter, more south. and not as intense but colder than its last run and still good snows. Link? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160117%2012%20UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The WPC is pretty bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 "A few inches in most places" wow All you had to read was the last sentence. No desire to commit to anything and why should they with a storm 4.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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