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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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I think 1922 is still number one in the city. There was a report of 33" in Rock Creek Park from the Knickerbocker (probably at elevation and not where current day Beach Drive is). Nothing that much in the city in 2010. (Of course Knicker is still the official number one at 28" -- at the old official site at M street -- and that will likely never change as long as the reporting station is the airport.) Close, though.

I think the top end for this region is sort of in that 28-36" range. Several storms have gotten to that ceiling but not really past in any widespread fashion. There could be a black swan and supposedly the Washington/Jefferson was bigger (though I'm skeptical), but shooting past that might be an unnecessary exercise. As if 28" isn't enough anyway. =p

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 as side from the  fact  that you  are   comparing  126   GFS  vs   144  EURO     w  yes  you are right 

 of course  you could always compare  126 gs vs 126  euro    SEE BELOW

 
 

Aside from the Euro being farther north along the East Coast than the GFS, you're totally right.

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_z500_mslp_us_22.png

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

  TO MOST PEOPLE  having the low over  SC is  way  south of the   GFS  postion

post-9415-0-51360600-1453064709_thumb.jp

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I really think this may be what's blows this storm up further than we are expecting. These temperatures this late in year can only happen with 2015 December's. ..

Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70 degree water temps awaiting.

http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg

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NOTICE the low is NOT over roanoke where the GFS has it --LOL! --

Yeah the ensemble mean seems a little further south than the operational gfs. But DT on a scale from 1-10 how would you rate the agreement right now between the euro gfs and cmc? 10 being perfect match. Take in to account that we are 5 days out. I would give it a 7 or 8

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I think the top end for this region is sort of in that 28-36" range. Several storms have gotten to that ceiling but not really past in any widespread fashion. There could be a black swan and supposedly the Washington/Jefferson was bigger (though I'm skeptical), but shooting past that might be an unnecessary exercise. As if 28" isn't enough anyway. =p

Other than Messers #1 and #3 are there any other records of the W/J storm? I know DC was a swamp then, but Baltimore, Richmond, Philly were going concerns. Maybe two of the founding fathers just decided to collude in a lie to bemuse later generations of weather weenies.

 

 

 

 

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The BWI afternoon discussion leaves a lot to be desired...IMO

 

..LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
TENNESSEE INTO THE VIRGINIAS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ENERGY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR
CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH OVER QUEBEC AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

MODELS VARY IN TIMING...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS
SPREADING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THAN
THE EURO MODEL. THE GFS HAS THE SNOW ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THE SNOW ARRIVAL UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

BOTH MODELS KEEP SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AROUND UNTIL AS LATE AS
FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS...IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GETS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES IN MOST PLACES. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING
DETERMINES A LOT AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL
LOW IS STILL ABOUT 5 DAYS AWAY.

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I'd rather they just leave any accumulation talk out of it if they're going to say that nonsense

lol read the Mount Holly AFD. They mention snow, but also say it may be more rain if the north trend continues. Uncharacteristically lame for them...I guess they prefer the ops over the ensembles.

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Para gfs is a good track with no KY transfer. H5 never closes off but a solid .75-1" of precip through most of the area tapering off as you go north.

yeah just saw 12z para. It's flatter, more south. and not as intense but colder than its last run and still good snows.

Link?

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160117%2012%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=
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