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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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I think the Euro sniffed out 96 several days in advance, but most of the other models (MRF? AVN? the nomenclatures have changed, certainly) didn't show a big DC and north hit until Friday?

 

NOT saying the situations are comparable. Well, except for that's the only region-wide HECS that occurred in January since ... when? 1922? (1/25/00 was nice and a big surprise but didn't have the legendary bulk). Unless you consider 1987 one event

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We are in a Strong El Nino. Does anyone know if the Knickerbocker storm was i an El Nino year?

Knickerbocker was probably a neutral year. I don't think it was necessarily bigger than Feb 5-6 2010 more a matter of where the bullseye was.
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Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast.  A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal.  If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. 

Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70  degree water temps awaiting.

 

http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg

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I'm looking at the teleconnections. What would favor such a solution ? The pacific flow is flat. Maybe the blocking high in Quebec coupled with the -AO?

I was posting specifically about the closed ull depicted on the ens. It's looking more and more probable.

In the past we have had numerous big storms when the ao/nao relaxes. It's the preferred phase change vs blocking developing. This setup fits that rule of thumb quite well. Still lots of stuff to worry about and work out. No way around that until the flakes start actually falling.

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Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast.  A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal.  If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. 

 

The Atlantic is still very warm.

 

Xx66gio.png

 

I'm also curious as to how this would affect the strength / track / dynamics of the storm.  Does anyone know what the sea surface temperatures were during analogous events?

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Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70  degree water temps awaiting.

 

http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg

 

 

Thanks much Kevin.  Seems to be pretty amazing to see temps like this in mid-Jan.  Just primed to fuel a good fetch of moisture if things go right.  Thought the last coastal on Friday/Sat would have cooled things off some. Guess it was not strong enough and/or far enough off the coast to stir up the surface.  Would be interesting to get thoughts of others about how this factors into everything.  Haven't seen any other references to it for a while. 

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If measurements were in the city, feb 2010 would have matched the knickerbocker.

Probably not. 28" in the city was one of the highest reports from the storm. It's possible the max footprint was a bit bigger in Knickerbocker. 28" at Fredericksburg, 26.5" in Balt, 28" in Annapolis. 26" in Takoma Park.

 

Think American University reported 25.5 in Snowmageddon tho that was higher than anything around it. Snowmageddon did have more 30"+ reports but there's more reporting stations now.

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The Atlantic is still very warm.

 

Xx66gio.png

 

I'm also curious as to how this would affect the strength / track / dynamics of the storm.  Does anyone know what the sea surface temperatures were during analogous events?

 

 

Thanks again.  Look at the GOM too.  Seems to be a lot of potential there for this to tap into and feed from.  All the more valuable given how cold the northern mid-west and east coast is going to be if the block holds.

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Probably not. 28" in the city was one of the highest reports from the storm. It's possible the max footprint was a bit bigger in Knickerbocker. 28" at Fredericksburg, 26.5" in Balt, 28" in Annapolis. 26" in Takoma Park.

 

Think American University reported 25.5 in Snowmageddon tho that was higher than anything around it. Snowmageddon did have more 30"+ reports but there's more reporting stations now.

 

Ian, where do you get the individual city totals for specific storms....I can never seem to find them. Thanks

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If measurements were in the city, feb 2010 would have matched the knickerbocker.

I think 1922 is still number one in the city. There was a report of 33" in Rock Creek Park from the Knickerbocker (probably at elevation and not where current day Beach Drive is). Nothing that much in the city in 2010. (Of course Knicker is still the official number one at 28" -- at the old official site at M street -- and that will likely never change as long as the reporting station is the airport.) Close, though.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knickerbocker_Storm

 

EDIT: Ninja'd!

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