WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd like to see the map 12 hours before that one Is that the transfer location? I gues the transition took longer than I expected. I was curious about the location before the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ha! Would that member #26 be something like Snowmageddon-II or something? It's like 30-40" from the cities to points north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wow - that 996 low is the same slp as the Arctic Circle January average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't remember that but my recollection is that the models were locked in for days It was... there was one 6z run that was off and had all weenies jumping off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's like 30-40" from the cities to points north and west. Lol, not really realistic. That's knickerbocker status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the Euro sniffed out 96 several days in advance, but most of the other models (MRF? AVN? the nomenclatures have changed, certainly) didn't show a big DC and north hit until Friday? NOT saying the situations are comparable. Well, except for that's the only region-wide HECS that occurred in January since ... when? 1922? (1/25/00 was nice and a big surprise but didn't have the legendary bulk). Unless you consider 1987 one event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol, not really realistic. That's knickerbocker status. We are in a Strong El Nino. Does anyone know if the Knickerbocker storm was i an El Nino year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 what are the winds looking like at the height of the storm? Ensembles don't show surface winds but the euro op had a period of sustained 25-30 with gusts into the 50's. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol, not really realistic. That's knickerbocker status. It's a free country. I'll choose to hug #26 until I see a bigger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ensembles don't show surface winds but the euro op had a period of sustained 25-30 with gusts into the 50's. Lol Blizzard watches could get posted along the bay for sure. Honestly, the potential is unlimited in this type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok so this week our barn is moving to a new facility. The horses/ponies are going to be trailered out either Thursday or Friday. If this system holds water which day would be best to move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also, 12z EPS closes off the 500 low over NC which then tracks the closed low off the NC/VA coast. That's a pretty sick 500 track, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok so this week our barn is moving to a new facility. The horses/ponies are going to be trailered out either Thursday or Friday. If this system holds water which day would be best to move? Not a met , of course, but based on these model runs - Thursday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also, 12z EPS closes off the 500 low over NC which then tracks the closed low off the NC/VA coast. That's a pretty sick 500 track, I think. You can't draw it up better if you wanted to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not a met , of course, but based on these model runs - Thursday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Probably Thursday Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We are in a Strong El Nino. Does anyone know if the Knickerbocker storm was i an El Nino year?Knickerbocker was probably a neutral year. I don't think it was necessarily bigger than Feb 5-6 2010 more a matter of where the bullseye was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You can't draw it up better if you wanted to I'm looking at the teleconnections. What would favor such a solution ? The pacific flow is flat. Maybe the blocking high in Quebec coupled with the -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If measurements were in the city, feb 2010 would have matched the knickerbocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast. A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal. If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70 degree water temps awaiting. http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm looking at the teleconnections. What would favor such a solution ? The pacific flow is flat. Maybe the blocking high in Quebec coupled with the -AO? I was posting specifically about the closed ull depicted on the ens. It's looking more and more probable. In the past we have had numerous big storms when the ao/nao relaxes. It's the preferred phase change vs blocking developing. This setup fits that rule of thumb quite well. Still lots of stuff to worry about and work out. No way around that until the flakes start actually falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast. A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal. If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. The Atlantic is still very warm. I'm also curious as to how this would affect the strength / track / dynamics of the storm. Does anyone know what the sea surface temperatures were during analogous events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Here you go look off to the bottom right corner that's right 70 degree water temps awaiting. http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/show/?file=../../regions/chess/sst/noaa/2016/img/160112.012.1847.n19.jpg Thanks much Kevin. Seems to be pretty amazing to see temps like this in mid-Jan. Just primed to fuel a good fetch of moisture if things go right. Thought the last coastal on Friday/Sat would have cooled things off some. Guess it was not strong enough and/or far enough off the coast to stir up the surface. Would be interesting to get thoughts of others about how this factors into everything. Haven't seen any other references to it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If measurements were in the city, feb 2010 would have matched the knickerbocker. Probably not. 28" in the city was one of the highest reports from the storm. It's possible the max footprint was a bit bigger in Knickerbocker. 28" at Fredericksburg, 26.5" in Balt, 28" in Annapolis. 26" in Takoma Park. Think American University reported 25.5 in Snowmageddon tho that was higher than anything around it. Snowmageddon did have more 30"+ reports but there's more reporting stations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Atlantic is still very warm. I'm also curious as to how this would affect the strength / track / dynamics of the storm. Does anyone know what the sea surface temperatures were during analogous events? well 2009/2010 was not too much different in the Atlantic than what you see here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Atlantic is still very warm. I'm also curious as to how this would affect the strength / track / dynamics of the storm. Does anyone know what the sea surface temperatures were during analogous events? Thanks again. Look at the GOM too. Seems to be a lot of potential there for this to tap into and feed from. All the more valuable given how cold the northern mid-west and east coast is going to be if the block holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Probably not. 28" in the city was one of the highest reports from the storm. It's possible the max footprint was a bit bigger in Knickerbocker. 28" at Fredericksburg, 26.5" in Balt, 28" in Annapolis. 26" in Takoma Park. Think American University reported 25.5 in Snowmageddon tho that was higher than anything around it. Snowmageddon did have more 30"+ reports but there's more reporting stations now. Ian, where do you get the individual city totals for specific storms....I can never seem to find them. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good consensus on the Low Locations by the EPSThe agreement here is amazing. We have run to run, model to model and ensemble consistency. I am ALL IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 amazing 500 mb euro eps map ideal FOR hecsand very different from OP GFS and to a lessor degree GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If measurements were in the city, feb 2010 would have matched the knickerbocker. I think 1922 is still number one in the city. There was a report of 33" in Rock Creek Park from the Knickerbocker (probably at elevation and not where current day Beach Drive is). Nothing that much in the city in 2010. (Of course Knicker is still the official number one at 28" -- at the old official site at M street -- and that will likely never change as long as the reporting station is the airport.) Close, though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knickerbocker_Storm EDIT: Ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ian, where do you get the individual city totals for specific storms....I can never seem to find them. Thanks Probably easiest here if you go to multi-station and set a date range then for snow/sum. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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