WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Which would mean what? Doesn't look like it means anything in this case so far. In some cases, a slower evolution might mean the cold air gets eroded before the precip arrives. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i'm assuming this is not a miller A? seems to be primarily a big overrunning event at this point more so than a wound up noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 has anybody examined the solutions from a wind perspective? Seems to me several solutions have been showing very tightly packed isobars over va - which would lead me to believe the "b" word may be a distinct possibility - am i off here? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i'm assuming this is not a miller A? seems to be primarily a big overrunning event at this point more so than a wound up noreaster. It's sort of a hybrid Miller A/B...but no, it's not an "overrunning event", at least not after the first phase. It's a rapidly deepening low moving slowly up the coast and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Doesn't look like it means anything in this case so far. In some cases, a slower evolution might mean the cold air gets eroded before the precip arrives. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case with this event. We're getting the advantages of the Niño ridge in central Canada finally. It ain't going anywhere soon.10 day Canadian temp anomaly map has looked like last night's for several days. We seem good. https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't think DT likes them, but some of the 12z GGEM individ ensembles members at 138 and 144 are just silly with their QPF and SLP placement/strength Yeah... Some crazy snow totals, but there's also a lot of rain in there for DC. GEFS members are a little less crazy, and they look a litlte colder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 this one cannot get more identical and given 82-83 was a strong el nino RIC got 17" in that of course I was living here then wow.jpg I was 9 years old living in Northeast Philly with that storm the Bulletin news paper shut down 22.2" with 8-10 foot snow drifts, thunder and lightning at night was solid winds past 35-40 mph at times at the height of the storm. It was a quick mover from what I remembered and clearly a Southern Branch system. I also remember it became pretty warm after that and things melted down abruptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Models seem to want to up the ante on each other run to run. That's a good sign for a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 i'm assuming this is not a miller A? seems to be primarily a big overrunning event at this point more so than a wound up noreaster. It's a miller A. Especially what the euro shows. Euro ens are bringing the low our. of Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's a miller A. Especially what the euro shows. Euro ens are bringing the low our. of Louisiana. The Euro ensemble mean is a great track for all of us. A more southern track to the primary and a bit farther east off the NC coast. That's the track I'll be rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is a great track for all of us. A more southern track to the primary and a bit farther east off the NC coast. That's the track I'll be rooting for. Really tight cluster without a group up into KY. I don't really see any taking the gfs track on the low location plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Really tight cluster without a group up into KY. I don't really see any taking the gfs track on the low location plots. It's a really good look. Let's hope it holds for the next several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good consensus on the Low Locations by the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Models seem to want to up the ante on each other run to run. That's a good sign for a strong signal.My recollection of 4-5 days before 2/6/10 was that the models were fighting over 10-12" at best, then upped the ante to 12-18" around Wednesday. We're already ahead of the game over 2/6/10. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Wow that is a heck of a signal on the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My recollection of 4-5 days before 2/6/10 was that the models were fighting over 10-12" at best, then upped the ante to 12-18" around Wednesday. We're already ahead of the game over 2/6/10. Lol I don't remember that but my recollection is that the models were locked in for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is a great track for all of us. A more southern track to the primary and a bit farther east off the NC coast. That's the track I'll be rooting for. I will be rooting for that as well. If the low tracks and bombs as far north/close to the coast as the op has it, I will have a sleet-fest or even rain here for a time. I can deal with that though, as long as I still get at least 8" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good consensus on the Low Locations by the EPS I'd like to see the map 12 hours before that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good consensus on the Low Locations by the EPS Yes, nice cluster there and a good overall track (in the mean). Anyone have a sense of the precip, etc., from the EPS as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z EPS mean snowfall is 10" in DC and over a foot for the Shenandoah Valley. ETA: Eyeballing 28 members have 6"+ in DC (with some huge hits in there), another 12 have at least 2", and another 10 are less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Members are loading up with some ridiculous solutions. #26 would be remembered as crippling. Lol. Mean snowfall at dca at least 10 inches. 6" line way south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Members are loading up with some ridiculous solutions. #26 would be remembered as crippling. Lol. Mean snowfall at dca at least 10 inches. 6" line way south and east What does the northern edge look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast. A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal. If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z EPS mean snowfall is 9" in DC and over a foot for the Shenandoah Valley. TY...was wondering that. Very impressive. I think PSUHoffman was saying the other week something along the lines that he considers it a real threat when the ensembles start consistently giving us on the order of a foot, or when there are at least a goodly number of members hammering us. This might be getting into that territory he mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Members are loading up with some ridiculous solutions. #26 would be remembered as crippling. Lol. Mean snowfall at dca at least 10 inches. 6" line way south and east Ha! Would that member #26 be something like Snowmageddon-II or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What does the northern edge look like? It looks like zero concern. It's a sick run that gets us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't remember that but my recollection is that the models were locked in for daysMost of the big onrs since I've been on the Boards have locked in ny dsy 5 and got better as we got closer: 2/03, 2/06 (great 18z run of the gfs 5 days out), 2/6/10, and 12/09 at 3+ days. I was around for Pd1 & 2/83, but can't recall the lead time on them-probably because there wasn't the computer lineup as there is now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd like to see the map 12 hours before that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It looks like zero concern. It's a sick run that gets us all. what are the winds looking like at the height of the storm? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Members are loading up with some ridiculous solutions. #26 would be remembered as crippling. Lol. Mean snowfall at dca at least 10 inches. 6" line way south and east It's pretty crazy that there's like 5 members with over 20" in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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