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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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has anybody examined the solutions from a wind perspective? Seems to me several solutions have been showing very tightly packed isobars over va - which would lead me to believe the "b" word may be a distinct possibility - am i off here?

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i'm assuming this is not a miller A? seems to be primarily a big overrunning event at this point more so than a wound up noreaster.

It's sort of a hybrid Miller A/B...but no, it's not an "overrunning event", at least not after the first phase. It's a rapidly deepening low moving slowly up the coast and out to sea.

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Doesn't look like it means anything in this case so far.

In some cases, a slower evolution might mean the cold air gets eroded before the precip arrives. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case with this event.

We're getting the advantages of the Niño ridge in central Canada finally. It ain't going anywhere soon.

10 day Canadian temp anomaly map has looked like last night's for several days. We seem good.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

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I don't think DT likes them, but some of the 12z GGEM individ ensembles members at 138 and 144 are just silly with their QPF and SLP placement/strength

 

Yeah...

 

Y4o2dKj.png

 

Some crazy snow totals, but there's also a lot of rain in there for DC.  GEFS members are a little less crazy, and they look a litlte colder too.

 

1lDfBU1.png

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this  one      

 

cannot  get more identical   and given 82-83  was a strong  el nino  

 

 RIC  got  17" in that

 

 of course   I   was living here  then  

 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifwow.jpg

I was 9 years old living in Northeast Philly with that storm the Bulletin news paper shut down 22.2" with 8-10 foot snow drifts, thunder and lightning at night was solid winds past 35-40 mph at times at the height of the storm.  It was a quick mover from what I remembered and clearly a Southern Branch system.  I also remember it became pretty warm after that and things melted down abruptly.

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The Euro ensemble mean is a great track for all of us. A more southern track to the primary and a bit farther east off the NC coast. That's the track I'll be rooting for.

Really tight cluster without a group up into KY. I don't really see any taking the gfs track on the low location plots.

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Models seem to want to up the ante on each other run to run. That's a good sign for a strong signal.

My recollection of 4-5 days before 2/6/10 was that the models were fighting over 10-12" at best, then upped the ante to 12-18" around Wednesday. We're already ahead of the game over 2/6/10. Lol
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The Euro ensemble mean is a great track for all of us.  A more southern track to the primary and a bit farther east off the NC coast.  That's the track I'll be rooting for. 

I will be rooting for that as well. If the low tracks and bombs as far north/close to the coast as the op has it, I will have a sleet-fest or even rain here for a time. I can deal with that though, as long as I still get at least 8" lol.

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Could someone please post the water temps off the MA coast.  A couple weeks ago the temps were still way above normal.  If they are even close to what they were, that may help explain why the QPFs are so high with some of the models, that and the presence of the big ULL and the duration if the slow track holds. 

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12z EPS mean snowfall is 9" in DC and over a foot for the Shenandoah Valley.  

 

TY...was wondering that.  Very impressive.  I think PSUHoffman was saying the other week something along the lines that he considers it a real threat when the ensembles start consistently giving us on the order of a foot, or when there are at least a goodly number of members hammering us.  This might be getting into that territory he mentioned.

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I don't remember that but my recollection is that the models were locked in for days

Most of the big onrs since I've been on the Boards have locked in ny dsy 5 and got better as we got closer: 2/03, 2/06 (great 18z run of the gfs 5 days out), 2/6/10, and 12/09 at 3+ days. I was around for Pd1 & 2/83, but can't recall the lead time on them-probably because there wasn't the computer lineup as there is now!
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