January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[Bob Chill]

Definitely not sold on any lengthy warm spell given the southern jet is raging and looks to stay that way. We're just sitting in the left exit region as well for the last few days so that could certainly be stormy.

 

tho HM just posted "late Jan into early Feb looking warm"

 

Above normal on the means seems pretty likely but not worth picking over too much. At least it doesn't look like we're warm for the bad reasons. 

 

You can see the mean 850 line creeping south through the end of the EPS. Basically tappable cold air nearby. I'm ready for some southern storm tracks and not all this convoluted stuff. Rain, whiff, or snow...let's get into the prime nino climo pattern and see what happens.

[Heisy]

18z GFS looks weird @ 108 out near the Pacific, it doesn't  have the same wave like the 12z did, so idk what it is going to show down the line here but I gtg so cya @ 00z

[Ian]

Weeklies first look:

 

Cold week one. Week 2-4 warm. -4, +2, +3, +3 for DC. +4 or greater northern states wk 2-4.

 

Pretty good +NAO wks 2-4 (no real sign of -AO either but more neutral maybe), STJ seems to calm a little bit with time. Flat 500mb ridge across S/C Canada, bunches up a bit in middle wk 3.

 

Well above avg precip wk 1 central CA to Pac NW, diminishes to avg over following weeks. Wk 2-4 above avg mainly over S/SE states.

[RIC_WX]

Weeklies first look:

 

Cold week one. Week 2-4 warm. -4, +2, +3, +3 for DC. +4 or greater northern states wk 2-4.

 

Pretty good +NAO wks 2-4 (no real sign of -AO either but more neutral maybe), STJ seems to calm a little bit with time. Flat 500mb ridge across S/C Canada, bunches up a bit in middle wk 3.

 

Well above avg precip wk 1 central CA to Pac NW, diminishes to avg over following weeks. Wk 2-4 above avg mainly over S/SE states.

With supernino climo outperforming the models so far this season, do you really trust this?

[WxUSAF]

With supernino climo outperforming the models so far this season, do you really trust this?

That outlook sounds very Nino-ish to me. 

[Amped]

Some key differences from 12z like, the troff hardly exists at 168, going to be way east if it forms

[Deck Pic]

Do you mean 12z?

Para Euro generally has come out 5-6 hours after the operational..

[Ian]

That outlook sounds very Nino-ish to me. 

It is. The clusters are interestingly pretty evenly split after this week between mega torch and near or just below normal. Every week has a big cluster with +7 to +10 anomalies over a huge part of the northeast quad of the US. Sounds about right. Even today we managed a +10 for the high out of nowhere. But if we keep storms rolling it probably won't last long.

[MacintoshPro]

Looks like the 18z drops the d8-9 threat.

 

 

 The 18z GFS certainly doesn't drop the threat, although its east of the 12z. Its very close to a significant storm for us.

[mitchnick]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016011418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=213

[stormtracker]

You're wrong. Looks to go to our south by a small distance.

People need to learn to read a model before they post. Ugh

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[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks like the 18z drops the d8-9 threat.

 

lol not quite... maybe drops the direct hit, but far from dropping it

[usedtobe]

People need to learn to read a model before they post. Ugh

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I'm actually interested in this one as I think the euro is wrong, its ensemble mean look pretty good so there must be quite a few good members.   Still may not work out and after it I think we have 4 warmish days but......we got a better shot than we had for this Sunday.

[mitchnick]

People need to learn to read a model before they post. Ugh

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Instead of having the desire to be first, people should focus on the need to be right.

[mitchnick]

It's a swing and a miss for us.

It's a scrapper. At 9 days, that's not "dropping the threat."

[RIC_WX]

That outlook sounds very Nino-ish to me. 

Sounds more like December to me.  The range takes us into mid February, which would otherwise be prime time for a nino induced snowfall which isn't likely with ++ temps anywhere close by.   I thought DC snow climo was most hospitable in February and particularly so in the case of ninos.

 

I am not sold on anything happening in January beyond what we've already seen, so if we are writing off the first half of February there isn't much left to hang a hat on this year.  

[mappy]

I think you got your point across a long time ago.

Apparently not since it has to be repeated every model run

[Windman18]

So the para was too close and the regular was a tad too far, split the difference and we've got a snowstorm.

[stormtracker]

I think you got your point across a long time ago.

And apparently, you're still getting yours across.

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[kurtstack]

as always i take a suppressed solution much more favorably at this range than a lakes cutter

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[Amped]

At least it misses to our south. I can't stand a cutter after 4 days of below average temps, I'd rather get no snow from an OTS track.

[Ian]

Sounds more like December to me. The range takes us into mid February, which would otherwise be prime time for a nino induced snowfall which isn't likely with ++ temps anywhere close by. I thought DC snow climo was most hospitable in February and particularly so in the case of ninos.

I am not sold on anything happening in January beyond what we've already seen, so if we are writing off the first half of February there isn't much left to hang a hat on this year.

Well I've mentioned a number of times that strong Nino climo favors south of us more than us for + snow and the ridging across Canada is part of the reason. It's not really a Dec pattern in the means. That was a high centered over the lakes/northeast this is more a broad flat ridge near and north of the international border. Tho the clusters do feature more of a lakes centering in some.

Either way the STJ signal is stronger than Dec as you'd expect. People may have just faltered on the idea of a negative Feb for temps. For now I'd prob still lean near normal myself tho plus seems more likely than minus for the month based on guidance. The euro monthlies kind of eased things in Feb too and cranked them back up in Mar.

[Bob Chill]

Way too much attention being paid to op runs. The only problem is saw with 18z was a weaker wave. Too weak + too much confluence = south. But I would say that's probably the lowest concern right now.

The same general idea is still front and center.

[WEATHER53]

At least it misses to our south. I can't stand a cutter after 4 days of below average temps, I'd rather get no snow from an OTS track.

When they are too far to our south that is the 2nd best problem we can have as it becomes an in situation with the high

[BristowWx]

Way too much attention being paid to op runs. The only problem is saw with 18z was a weaker wave. Too weak + too much confluence = south. But I would say that's probably the lowest concern right now.

The same general idea is still front and center.

I just liked the idea it had a storm in that timeframe. And it's cold. And a few runs now. We are batting 1000 right now.

[DTWXRISK]

LETS MONGER !!    ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED  DISCUSSION /  SPECULATION**  

 

POINT #1    This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days.  As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week.  This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems  over the last 10 days which at  point LOOKED like they  MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather  to portions of the East Coast .  

 

If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of   feature  arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began.  Occasionally  there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving   "just in the nick of time"    but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE  the event ever begins.

 

 POINT # 2     this    system...  no matter  if it actually  RAIN  or SNOW ...  appears to be a classic GULF /   East Coast LOW MILLER A TYPE).  These  sorts of LOWs  are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA  WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ 

 

POINT #3  the second critical issue or variable with regard to  this possible  JAN  22-23... is  the **  TIMING ***   As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is  not going to last forever.  The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic  states. 

 

This  FIRST image is the operational or  **regular **  European model from Thursday afternoon.  As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24.  The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern.  The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what  is called  a   ***  CUTOFF LOW***.  These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England!

 

 

However lets  looks at   IMAGE #2  shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run.  As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic...  and a good portion of New England  JAN 22-23. 

 

 

 

 

The difference here is NUMBER #3  that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down.  The Low  keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air  is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm.

 

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

So the para was too close and the regular was a tad too far, split the difference and we've got a snowstorm.

Lol I tried tobdo that also with our current situation this weekend...we did split the difference one storm rain the other supression

[DTWXRISK]

also  the fact that  the 18z  GFS  has jumped into bed  with the euro  eps   is  often a good sign

[dtk]

i have no idea why or what the changes are on it but when I've looked at the gfsx it has shown some crazy solutions at range. Not just over amped but weird convective precip bands that seem to throw the whole system off. It just feels funky to me sometimes. Like a nam type feel. Can't put my finger on it but I don't like the feel of that model so far.

I think this is more imagined than reality since there are almost no changes to the model itself in the GFSx (it's a DA package, with a small change to some land surface stuff to address a 2m T/Td bias and perhaps one other very minor change to a reference pressure in the SL scheme or something).

[Amped]

That high on the EPS over the lakes is somewhat encouraging. Means less chance of a cutter and the cold air is not just on the front end.