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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Major differences in how much "snow" we get from StormVista and Weatherbell. Weatherbell is just a massacre up and down the coast, yet StormVista is like 8-9 inches for DC, drastic around Central Eastern Shore.

 

I'm putting my money on the over.

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Let's see event just begins Friday morning, or as the storm approaches and doesn't end until Sunday morning.  The great news and not getting into details, the trend continues toward a big storm next weekend.  Just hope that we hold onto the cold airmass. 

 

When I saw the low tracking toward Tennessee, I thought it may track more west, but it kept to what it showed last night.  Yeh, snowfall maps look awesome, but its Sunday.  Let's keep these type of models runs going.. No more false alarms.. 

 

Exactly.  The great runs are nice to see but at this point are kind of meteorological porn if and until it's getting within a couple of days.  But still, at this point I like seeing a consistent signal for something in the range of a moderate imperfect event up to an absolute beauty of a HECS.

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Just unreal.  And not like it's one fantasy ensemble member either like we've seen before.  When's the last time the ops Euro showed something this impressive?

 

I don't think we've had this much agreement at this range since February 2010.

 

Incredible run, and even better, a lot of us have room for slight shifts north or south.

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A few years ago I think...

 

Yeah, maybe so (I'm sure in 2010 it did!).  I do recall about 2 years ago there was a particular Euro ensemble member that gave some ridiculous amount over the DC area and it got tweeted all over the damned place, with people calling for destruction and all that.  Which was just stupid, of course.

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Yeah that's awfully close to the coast. Mixing for sure south and east and lots of rain on Delmarva it looks like :(

I feel a little better after seeing the 850 track which is south enough that DC and even me would probably stay snow if the storm were perfectly forecast.   We still could have a dry slot period but the euro would be a mega hit.  Now we just have to get the GFS onboard.  The GFS actually won the contest for today's storm at least in my eyes. 

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GFS is advertising a 7am or so start on Friday so only a few hours different.  

The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation.   That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk.  We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. 

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The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation.   That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk.  We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. 

 

Yep, that's the key difference.  While I would favor the UKMET/Euro combo based on historical performance, it's interesting that the Euro has caved to the GFS in terms of setup - yesterday it was advertising a Miller A type storm while the GFS has been pretty consistent with a primary transfer to the coast for several runs.  Now the Euro is also showing a primary coastal transfer setup.  Let's see what the 12z Euro-Para shows later when it comes out; 0z showed the primary coastal transfer and it was a big hit, even with mixing issues for us.

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Guys, so is the HP more pronounced on the Euro vs the GFS or is the GFS warmer simply because it punches the primary right up into VA?

 

 

The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation.   That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk.  We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. 

 

I'm wondering this too.  I believe the Euro has a somewhat better placed and stronger high, thus it doesn't push the primary quite as far north as the GFS.  That's kind of what it looks like if I'm interpreting this correctly and recalling the GFS details right as well.

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The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation. That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk. We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm.

Looks like a much stronger low on the euro off the coast. The gfs precip amounts are not that big.

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I'm wondering this too.  I believe the Euro has a somewhat better placed and stronger high, thus it doesn't push the primary quite as far north as the GFS.  That's kind of what it looks like if I'm interpreting this correctly and recalling the GFS details right as well.

I think that is right from what I can see.  Subtle differences.  Either could be right even with the Euros better track record. 

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How far from pd2 is this, other than how cold that was?

Pd2 had stronger HP and colder temps, but still flipped to sleet for several hours imby. But it is similar in that I specifically recall the Euro showing it 5 days out. HM had some great posts that night when it came out when the Euro only ran 1x/day.
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So after a look at a lot of 12z guidance....

It's team CMC and GFS that are more NW

Team Ukie, NAVGEM, and JMA that are more

SE.

And EURO in the middle.

All bring pretty good snow to DC I believe. And yes, I brought up the JMA and NAVGEM. Lol

 

Yup, my thinking as well, and for now the main take-away to run with.  Even the imperfect set-ups give a good majority of the area warning-criteria or better snows (depending on location and all that of course).

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Pd2 had stronger HP and colder temps, but still flipped to sleet for several hours imby. But it is similar in that I specifically recall the Euro showing it 5 days out. HM had some great posts that night when it came out when the Euro only ran 1x/day.

 

That's more or less how I remember it.  Not a huge storm in terms of an intense low, but tons of moisture pouring into very cold air with good damming.  Yeah, we got sleet late that Sunday night for quite awhile, but by then I had ~18" on the ground so it wasn't too much of a let down!  :lol:  And I do recall seeing the models 5 or so days out honing in on that event.  Like every day was screaming >1.25" over the area, and it seemed the surface temps were just getting colder and colder.  Of course, it was the warming aloft that caused a flip to sleet.

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