Ltrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT must have a different definition of "way south" than I do. I think he just wants his area to be in the jackpot zone. Just a little biased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DT must have a different definition of "way south" than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Major differences in how much "snow" we get from StormVista and Weatherbell. Weatherbell is just a massacre up and down the coast, yet StormVista is like 8-9 inches for DC, drastic around Central Eastern Shore. I'm putting my money on the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let's see event just begins Friday morning, or as the storm approaches and doesn't end until Sunday morning. The great news and not getting into details, the trend continues toward a big storm next weekend. Just hope that we hold onto the cold airmass. When I saw the low tracking toward Tennessee, I thought it may track more west, but it kept to what it showed last night. Yeh, snowfall maps look awesome, but its Sunday. Let's keep these type of models runs going.. No more false alarms.. Exactly. The great runs are nice to see but at this point are kind of meteorological porn if and until it's getting within a couple of days. But still, at this point I like seeing a consistent signal for something in the range of a moderate imperfect event up to an absolute beauty of a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just unreal. And not like it's one fantasy ensemble member either like we've seen before. When's the last time the ops Euro showed something this impressive? I don't think we've had this much agreement at this range since February 2010. Incredible run, and even better, a lot of us have room for slight shifts north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks Bob. So what, about 12 hour diff from gfs? Thanks nj2 GFS is advertising a 7am or so start on Friday so only a few hours different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 A few years ago I think... Yeah, maybe so (I'm sure in 2010 it did!). I do recall about 2 years ago there was a particular Euro ensemble member that gave some ridiculous amount over the DC area and it got tweeted all over the damned place, with people calling for destruction and all that. Which was just stupid, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah that's awfully close to the coast. Mixing for sure south and east and lots of rain on Delmarva it looks like we've seen this play out with just about every big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah that's awfully close to the coast. Mixing for sure south and east and lots of rain on Delmarva it looks like I feel a little better after seeing the 850 track which is south enough that DC and even me would probably stay snow if the storm were perfectly forecast. We still could have a dry slot period but the euro would be a mega hit. Now we just have to get the GFS onboard. The GFS actually won the contest for today's storm at least in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys, so is the HP more pronounced on the Euro vs the GFS or is the GFS warmer simply because it punches the primary right up into VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS is advertising a 7am or so start on Friday so only a few hours different. The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation. That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk. We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Much better HP on the Euro than the GFS. Its in a better position as well. Man that snow map reminds me of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation. That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk. We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. Yep, that's the key difference. While I would favor the UKMET/Euro combo based on historical performance, it's interesting that the Euro has caved to the GFS in terms of setup - yesterday it was advertising a Miller A type storm while the GFS has been pretty consistent with a primary transfer to the coast for several runs. Now the Euro is also showing a primary coastal transfer setup. Let's see what the 12z Euro-Para shows later when it comes out; 0z showed the primary coastal transfer and it was a big hit, even with mixing issues for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys, so is the HP more pronounced on the Euro vs the GFS or is the GFS warmer simply because it punches the primary right up into VA? The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation. That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk. We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. I'm wondering this too. I believe the Euro has a somewhat better placed and stronger high, thus it doesn't push the primary quite as far north as the GFS. That's kind of what it looks like if I'm interpreting this correctly and recalling the GFS details right as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Any body know what the gfs para shows? Haven't seen any talk of it in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The big difference to me it that the GFS allows the primary to get farther north prior to reformation. That causes ptype issues for us city and east folk. We still get accumulating snow but not the pretty UKMET and Euro type storm. Looks like a much stronger low on the euro off the coast. The gfs precip amounts are not that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm wondering this too. I believe the Euro has a somewhat better placed and stronger high, thus it doesn't push the primary quite as far north as the GFS. That's kind of what it looks like if I'm interpreting this correctly and recalling the GFS details right as well. I think that is right from what I can see. Subtle differences. Either could be right even with the Euros better track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm going all Tenman here but HP strength and placement will help determine price type and if DC south flips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 How far from pd2 is this, other than how cold that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm going all Tenman here but HP strength and placement will help determine price type and if DC south flips CAD is always underestimated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How far from pd2 is this, other than how cold that was? PD-II was more of a big overrunning event into an extremely cold air mass as I recall. There wasn't necessarily a huge low pressure system. In this case, the low winds up a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So after a look at a lot of 12z guidance.... It's team CMC and GFS that are more NW Team Ukie, NAVGEM, and JMA that are more SE. And EURO in the middle. All bring pretty good snow to DC I believe. And yes, I brought up the JMA and NAVGEM. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How far from pd2 is this, other than how cold that was?Pd2 had stronger HP and colder temps, but still flipped to sleet for several hours imby. But it is similar in that I specifically recall the Euro showing it 5 days out. HM had some great posts that night when it came out when the Euro only ran 1x/day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 144 GGEM ensemble mean is just silly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 image.jpg Just curious how much snow was he calling for in his Winter Weather Outlook? I have no clue because I have not read it at all it is a lack of time honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Para destroys the 81 corridor and Western PA.. Almost 30" around Front Royal and 3 feet in Deep Creek Lake. It's around 15-20" for DC and the close N and W suburbs. That's the 00z Euro Para. I haven't checked the GFS Para since 12z isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So after a look at a lot of 12z guidance.... It's team CMC and GFS that are more NW Team Ukie, NAVGEM, and JMA that are more SE. And EURO in the middle. All bring pretty good snow to DC I believe. And yes, I brought up the JMA and NAVGEM. Lol Yup, my thinking as well, and for now the main take-away to run with. Even the imperfect set-ups give a good majority of the area warning-criteria or better snows (depending on location and all that of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pd2 had stronger HP and colder temps, but still flipped to sleet for several hours imby. But it is similar in that I specifically recall the Euro showing it 5 days out. HM had some great posts that night when it came out when the Euro only ran 1x/day. That's more or less how I remember it. Not a huge storm in terms of an intense low, but tons of moisture pouring into very cold air with good damming. Yeah, we got sleet late that Sunday night for quite awhile, but by then I had ~18" on the ground so it wasn't too much of a let down! And I do recall seeing the models 5 or so days out honing in on that event. Like every day was screaming >1.25" over the area, and it seemed the surface temps were just getting colder and colder. Of course, it was the warming aloft that caused a flip to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 How far from pd2 is this, other than how cold that was? It reminds me of it quite a bit. 2003 tracked up into TN then redeveloped off of SC/NC border. The front end is what really clobbered us. This one looks to be a little further SE as modeled. Almost like a 03/10 mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GGEM ensemble mean is 7-8" for DCA it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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