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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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500mb analogs for the 1-5 day period were all over late Jan/early Feb 2010 in recent days. Still in the top. If nothing else gives a good idea of what the block will break down from.

 

Interesting.  Weren't they showing 1998 and 1983 a lot before (with more 1998)?  Maybe that was more the medium range beyond 5 days, can't recall exactly.  At any rate, at least those 1-5 day analogues have some nice company though I know it's not a predictive element per se.

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Interesting.  Weren't they showing 1998 and 1983 a lot before (with more 1998)?  Maybe that was more the medium range beyond 5 days, can't recall exactly.  At any rate, at least those 1-5 day analogues have some nice company though I know it's not a predictive element per se.

Well these are NH analogs by model from SV. I think the CPC are based on a different method. This is no 09-10 globally but the blocking configuration at present isn't that far off.

 

The GFS ensembles are quite nice.

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I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves.  By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC.  Fewer messy transfers vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps.  

 

considering last night 10/11 showed snow and the others showed a miss, this is great agreement, with now 19/22 showing some decent snow in the DC area. good signal but of course, things can and often do sometime change pretty quickly. wish it was Tuesday already... think we have a better idea by then on what the storm may or may not do.

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Well these are NH analogs by model from SV. I think the CPC are based on a different method. This is no 09-10 globally but the blocking configuration at present isn't that far off.

 

The GFS ensembles are quite nice.

 

Thanks.  Didn't realize those were different methods for computing the analogues, but makes sense.  Yeah, it's nothing like '09-10 overall, but I can see how the general block might look similar.

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Time to get it together... Euro is starting.  Feast or Famine

I won't lie. I am a nervous wreck. We have been closer to game time and seen some ugly twists of fate with a no snow for you type change. People don't understand how we suffer for our snow.

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Really?  120 has the SLP in C TN and looks like its going to be a nice MA hit for us

 

Wasn't the primary SLP more in KY in the GFS and CMC before the transfer?  Can't recall offhand, and too lazy (haha!) to look back at earlier discussion.  So I guess that would be south of those two models, not sure about "way south" though.

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I'd rather have it way south. Some of the models have the primary too far west to where the 850s become compromised maybe not so much for you guys in DC etc but..

Agreed though major shifts early in the game are also a yellow flag. Will see how the run plays out.

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