psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 of course you are...you live near the PA border...you'll get crushedok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 9-10"? Was hard to tell on weather bell. Close to 1" qpf I believe There's a little 10-12" bullseye you to just north of the PA border. Another right over the northern part of the bay and surrounds. Loudoun folks got the big screw job 0z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There's a little 10-12" bullseye you to just north of the PA border. Another right over the northern part of the bay and surrounds. Loudoun folks got the big screw job 0z to 12z. Nice, can't complain about that. Just finished the grocery list so I can go tomorrow instead of later in the week. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I WANT a foot plus yes. But I'll be satisfied with half that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 ok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it. This was a good post until the last few sentences.... nobody is entitled to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 ok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it. good point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block it is a pretty classic snowstorm signal would be a shame to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This was a good post until the last few sentences.... nobody is entitled to snow good point.. Lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block It took me awhile to recognize you with the new handle. For us, to me the GEM and GFS are not that good. Some snow but also temp issues and probably a changeover to rain. I need last night's Euro and then I still could have issues. Thee UKMET looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GEFS mean: 108 -- 1010mb SLP in NW AL 114 -- 1009mb SLP in E TN 120 -- 1008mb SLP in W NC 126 -- 1005mb SLP just WSW of HSE 132 -- 1003mb SLP east of ORF around 150 miles or so 138 and 144 have SLP slowly moving eastward... I would say the GEFS mean is pretty decent for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GEFS mean: 108 -- 1010mb SLP in NW AL 114 -- 1009mb SLP in E TN 120 -- 1008mb SLP in W NC 126 -- 1005mb SLP just WSW of HSE 132 -- 1003mb SLP east of ORF around 150 miles or so That's def north of 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It took me awhile to recognize you with the new handle. For us, to me the GEM and GFS are not that good. Some snow but also temp issues and probably a changeover to rain. I need last night's Euro and then I still could have issues. Thee UKMET looks good Could be a tougher forecast for me and you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's def north of 0z last night Yes, but 850 0c line never gets north of EZF... 126 is close but still snow at DCA I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block Classic pieces of the puzzle, timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves. By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC. Fewer messy transfers vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Using meteocentre maps for 12z GGEM SLP placement: 114 -- 1001mb SLP in NW AL 120 -- 997mb SLP in C TN 132 -- 994mb SLP in NE NC/SE VA (transfer ongoing... almost complete) 144 -- 983mb SLP just east of ACY An approx. 20 hours of precip. is quite impressive, especially if it's mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves. By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC. Fewer messy transfers on the means vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps. I'll take the 2 feet from e20. Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 An approx. 20 hours of precip. is quite impressive, especially if it's mostly frozen. It's actually over 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves. By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC. Fewer messy transfers vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps. 17/22 panels give my area 6"+ of snow. Only one real dead ratter. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty decent agreement there nj2va... can we take e6 to go please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This was a good post until the last few sentences.... nobody is entitled to snow sorry you read it that way. I don't see it as entitled. There are some dud years here too but if I'm willing to commute over an hour to work so the odds are a little more stacked in my favor to get snow I don't feel like I need to apologize for it. Just like I don't expect or want an apology from anyone else if a storm misses me and hits them. Yea I get upset but it's no ones fault. We don't control the weather. It's like the weird thing with New England some have. I don't get it. I know they get way more snow. I considered moving there years ago. But I didn't so I have no right to complain about their snow. I could live there if it was important enough to me. I know I lived in Virginia for a long time and wasn't content with how much snow I got most winters so I did something about it and moved. I know not everyone can do that but giving people crap because they live somewhere with better snow climo seems crazy to me. I try to take a region wide view when posting and be sensitive to others. I don't post snow pics when the rest of the area is getting rain for instance. Yea sometimes my inner weenie gets out and I probably say something that irks people but I'm not appologising for where I live. But I know I'll get crushed by some for saying that, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 E6 love me long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'll take the 2 feet from e20. Thank you sir. I am more greedy... I want e6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 sorry you read it that way. I don't see it as entitled. There are some dud years here too but if I'm willing to commute over an hour to work so the odds are a little more stacked in my favor to get snow I don't feel like I need to apologize for it. Just like I don't expect or want an apology from anyone else if a storm misses me and hits them. Yea I get upset but it's no ones fault. We don't control the weather. It's like the weird thing with New England some have. I don't get it. I know they get way more snow. I considered moving there years ago. But I didn't so I have no right to complain about their snow. I could live there if it was important enough to me. I know I lived in Virginia for a long time and wasn't content with how much snow I got most winters so I did something about it and moved. I know not everyone can do that but giving people crap because they live somewhere with better snow climo seems crazy to me. I try to take a region wide view when posting and be sensitive to others. I don't post snow pics when the rest of the area is getting rain for instance. Yea sometimes my inner weenie gets out and I probably say something that irks people but I'm not appologising for where I live. But I know I'll get crushed by some for saying that, oh well. I think it was just the way you said it.... FWIW it's totally fine to have higher expectations, and there's no need for northerners to apologize for getting snow when others don't. Overall you're a very valuable contributor and I've learned quite a bit from your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty decent agreement there nj2va... can we take e6 to go please? Heh, tell me about it. It's a pretty great GEFS run and it's nice to see the mean increasing. Confidence is growing for at least a moderate storm for us even if we have temp issues in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Take the rants to banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 FWIW, 12z GGEM would be snow at 120 and 126 in DCA.... 132 and 138 0c 850 line straddles I-95, so I can't really tell if its wet snow or sleet along I-95... but BR and west get a paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 500mb analogs for the 1-5 day period were all over late Jan/early Feb 2010 in recent days. Still in the top. If nothing else gives a good idea of what the block will break down from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I think it was just the way you said it.... FWIW it's totally fine to have higher expectations, and there's no need for northerners to apologize for getting snow when others don't. Overall you're a very valuable contributor and I've learned quite a bit from your posts. it's ok. I know many disagree with me on some of what I said and that's ok. I don't expect everyone to agree with me. I value matts opinions and contributions and everyone else's. Also think this forum is great for both knowledge and entertainment. Was just throwing my pov out there. Rant over. Back to drooling over our first real non unicorn range threat.ETA: h2o is right sorry for cluttering up the thread. Mods should move this stuff to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.