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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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of course you are...you live near the PA border...you'll get crushed

ok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it.
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9-10"? Was hard to tell on weather bell. Close to 1" qpf I believe

There's a little 10-12" bullseye you to just north of the PA border. Another right over the northern part of the bay and surrounds. Loudoun folks got the big screw job 0z to 12z.

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There's a little 10-12" bullseye you to just north of the PA border. Another right over the northern part of the bay and surrounds. Loudoun folks got the big screw job 0z to 12z.

Nice, can't complain about that. Just finished the grocery list so I can go tomorrow instead of later in the week. Bring it on

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I WANT a foot plus yes. But I'll be satisfied with half that.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block

 

 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_2.png

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ok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it.

 

This was a good post until the last few sentences.... nobody is entitled to snow

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ok Matt let me be more specific. When I say we I mean the majority of this forum centered on the dc-balt metro areas. When I say decent snow I mean at least a couple inches front or back end not just snow tv or an inch that gets washed away immediately. My 50/50 was for that. If we are talking my area I would say more like 60/70% but only a few people in this forum live up here so I was being more inclusive. Besides I earn the snow. I commute an extra 30 minutes each way everyday for it (as well as cooler wx in summer and a nicer area IMO) so at least I work for it.

 

good point..

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I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block

it is a pretty classic snowstorm signal would be a shame to fail.

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I wouldn't....we can get a 6" storm in a strong La Nina....What's the point in having a strong Nino with this pattern if we are going to get a few inches...This is what we've been waiting for .....something to phase and run into a decaying block

 

 

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_2.png

It took me awhile to recognize you with the new handle.  For us, to me the GEM and GFS are not that good.  Some snow but also temp issues and probably a changeover to rain.  I need last night's Euro and then I still could have issues.  Thee UKMET looks good

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12z GEFS mean:

 

108 -- 1010mb SLP in NW AL

114 -- 1009mb SLP in E TN

120 -- 1008mb SLP in W NC

126 -- 1005mb SLP just WSW of HSE

132 -- 1003mb SLP east of ORF around 150 miles or so 

 

138 and 144 have SLP slowly moving eastward...

 

I would say the GEFS mean is pretty decent for most of us

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It took me awhile to recognize you with the new handle.  For us, to me the GEM and GFS are not that good.  Some snow but also temp issues and probably a changeover to rain.  I need last night's Euro and then I still could have issues.  Thee UKMET looks good

 

Could be a tougher forecast for me and you....

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Using meteocentre maps for 12z GGEM SLP placement:

 

114 -- 1001mb SLP in NW AL

120 --  997mb SLP in C TN

132 --  994mb SLP in NE NC/SE VA (transfer ongoing... almost complete)

144 -- 983mb SLP just east of ACY

 

 

An approx. 20 hours of precip. is quite impressive, especially if it's mostly frozen.

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I think the 12z GEFS speak for themselves.  By far, most bullish GEFS yet with a 7.5-8" mean in DC.  Fewer messy transfers vs. earlier runs which is the key difference in the snow maps.  

 

17/22 panels give my area 6"+ of snow. Only one real dead ratter. Awesome

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This was a good post until the last few sentences.... nobody is entitled to snow

sorry you read it that way. I don't see it as entitled. There are some dud years here too but if I'm willing to commute over an hour to work so the odds are a little more stacked in my favor to get snow I don't feel like I need to apologize for it. Just like I don't expect or want an apology from anyone else if a storm misses me and hits them. Yea I get upset but it's no ones fault. We don't control the weather. It's like the weird thing with New England some have. I don't get it. I know they get way more snow. I considered moving there years ago. But I didn't so I have no right to complain about their snow. I could live there if it was important enough to me. I know I lived in Virginia for a long time and wasn't content with how much snow I got most winters so I did something about it and moved. I know not everyone can do that but giving people crap because they live somewhere with better snow climo seems crazy to me. I try to take a region wide view when posting and be sensitive to others. I don't post snow pics when the rest of the area is getting rain for instance. Yea sometimes my inner weenie gets out and I probably say something that irks people but I'm not appologising for where I live. But I know I'll get crushed by some for saying that, oh well.
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sorry you read it that way. I don't see it as entitled. There are some dud years here too but if I'm willing to commute over an hour to work so the odds are a little more stacked in my favor to get snow I don't feel like I need to apologize for it. Just like I don't expect or want an apology from anyone else if a storm misses me and hits them. Yea I get upset but it's no ones fault. We don't control the weather. It's like the weird thing with New England some have. I don't get it. I know they get way more snow. I considered moving there years ago. But I didn't so I have no right to complain about their snow. I could live there if it was important enough to me. I know I lived in Virginia for a long time and wasn't content with how much snow I got most winters so I did something about it and moved. I know not everyone can do that but giving people crap because they live somewhere with better snow climo seems crazy to me. I try to take a region wide view when posting and be sensitive to others. I don't post snow pics when the rest of the area is getting rain for instance. Yea sometimes my inner weenie gets out and I probably say something that irks people but I'm not appologising for where I live. But I know I'll get crushed by some for saying that, oh well.

 

I think it was just the way you said it.... FWIW it's totally fine to have higher expectations, and there's no need for northerners to apologize for getting snow when others don't. Overall you're a very valuable contributor and I've learned quite a bit from your posts.

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I think it was just the way you said it.... FWIW it's totally fine to have higher expectations, and there's no need for northerners to apologize for getting snow when others don't. Overall you're a very valuable contributor and I've learned quite a bit from your posts.

it's ok. I know many disagree with me on some of what I said and that's ok. I don't expect everyone to agree with me. I value matts opinions and contributions and everyone else's. Also think this forum is great for both knowledge and entertainment. Was just throwing my pov out there. Rant over. Back to drooling over our first real non unicorn range threat.

ETA: h2o is right sorry for cluttering up the thread. Mods should move this stuff to banter.

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