psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's still pretty far out. We have plenty of examples of models lining up at this range then fail at least around the cities.I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol...The Canadian is like 30" of snow for the western Burbs Its a ridiculous run.... waiting on the UKIE to see what it does before King Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not really. Per the model NNE doesnt get anything. I am sure they are not very happy with this run up there. It's east of them mostly. Yeah - you're right. Missed the low moving more NE and OTS than NNE. If it trends further W however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I added like 6 more snowstorm loops yday to my gathering of reanalysis. Put them all together here (based off DC top events but many big ones of course). http://imgur.com/a/WUGAk I don't really see the major likeness to 83 or 87 outside the track.. but that's a common track for a good EC snow event. The first 1987 event is more like today if it phased .. kind similar to a Mar 1958 grab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Its a ridiculous run.... waiting on the UKIE to see what it does before King Euro Are you able to post a clown map of the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 If models hold up looks a lot like '87 storm: 19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg Wasn't there a storm right on the heels of that one. I remember a big winter storm in swva that hit the afternoon of the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Verbatim on the Canadian it would shush all of the NE Pennsylvania people who complained on missing all the snows back In the day 30-36" for that area on the run. But it's good to see that nothing is drastically changing (yet), if these solutions continue, it will be talked abo ut everywhere Tuesday Morning perhaps. (Below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Are you able to post a clown map of the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I added like 6 more snowstorm loops yday to my gathering of reanalysis. Put them all together here (based off DC top events but many big ones of course). http://imgur.com/a/WUGAk Great loops - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up. It's 5 straight runs on the gfs with a very similar storm. That alone is completely different from the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up. of course you are...you live near the PA border...you'll get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up. It's been quite consistent as a signal really. If it happens it will be an impressive run up of modeling IMO. I'd just be cautious of it meaning that's the end result. Though again at this point I would lean toward some sort of significant low etc. We seek final answers too soon these days across society.. snowstorm watching is just one area you see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Are you able to post a clown map of the Canadian? Thanks you sir. Much appreciated. And wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was in Northeast Baltimore for 83' and about same age as you and the snow came in fast and real heavy ..probably 2-4 " in hr rates . Remember hearing 5 in /hr in some locals . Great storm for young snow weenies . Got 24 to 27 inches I believe. I was 8 at the time and it is the first big storm i remember vividly. I was living in NW Baltimore at that time and i think i got somewhere in that range if not a little more. It took my father 7 hours to get home from DC that day. That storm started my fascination with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Using meteocentre maps for 12z GGEM SLP placement: 114 -- 1001mb SLP in NW AL 120 -- 997mb SLP in C TN 132 -- 994mb SLP in NE NC/SE VA (transfer ongoing... almost complete) 144 -- 983mb SLP just east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ukie closew it off east of cape hatteras would be huge for mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Using meteocentre for 12z UKIE SLP placement: 120 -- 1004mb SLP in W GA/E AL 144 -- 998mb SLP off HSE (about to be captured by h5 low it appears) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ukie closew it off east of cape hatteras would be huge for mid atlantic Yup... too bad precip maps only go out to 72... EURO may be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Im at work cant post ukie, however it looks like a lot depends on how strong the wave is when it comes on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Para EPS looks great too I want 12"+ we've had a bunch of 3-6" storms the last 2 winters....Total waste of time.... I WANT a foot plus yes. But I'll be satisfied with half that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Using meteocentre maps for 12z GGEM SLP placement: 114 -- 1001mb SLP in NW AL 120 -- 997mb SLP in C TN 132 -- 994mb SLP in NE NC/SE VA (transfer ongoing... almost complete) 144 -- 983mb SLP just east of ACY The low gets up to Kentucky and then redevelops but tracks west of ORF which is usually bad for the city and points east. The 850 zero line gets west of DCA by 00Z Sat so the lowest 5000 feet is above freezing by then. That doesn't say it is right. We need a Euro track. I GFS one will get Luvr snow and Chill would do well but not me or the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 At the gym so can't really see the gem (I'm here all night). But based on that map looks like a crush job. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I imagine the Ukie would absolutely bomb out beyond 144 looking at that 500mb trsck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Using meteocentre for 12z UKIE SLP placement: 120 -- 1004mb SLP in W GA/E AL 144 -- 998mb SLP off HSE (about to be captured by h5 low it appears) I was just about to post the same thing re: the SLP getting captured. 120 and 144 are classic looks for the Mid-Atl IMO. No H to our NW, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I WANT a foot plus yes. But I'll be satisfied with half that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's what he said.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty significant clipper in the long range on GFS. And a lot more energy crashing into CA. Could be an exciting next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The low gets up to Kentucky and then redevelops but tracks west of ORF which is usually bad for the city and points east. The 850 zero line gets west of DCA by 00Z Sat so the lowest 5000 feet is above freezing by then. That doesn't say it is right. We need a Euro track. I GFS one will get Luvr snow and Chill would do well but not me or the city. Wes, I'm east of 95 and the city in central aa county and even the GFS has me at 4-8" it looks like. I guess not all of us would do bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 SV snow map was way down from last night on 12z GFS but actually about the same in the city. Jackpotville jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And yall laughed at jma lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 SV snow map was way down from last night on 12z GFS but actually about the same in the city. Jackpotville jackpot. 9-10"? Was hard to tell on weather bell. Close to 1" qpf I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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