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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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It's still pretty far out. We have plenty of examples of models lining up at this range then fail at least around the cities.

I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up.
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I added like 6 more snowstorm loops yday to my gathering of reanalysis. Put them all together here (based off DC top events but many big ones of course). http://imgur.com/a/WUGAk

 

I don't really see the major likeness to 83 or 87 outside the track.. but that's a common track for a good EC snow event. The first 1987 event is more like today if it phased .. kind similar to a Mar 1958 grab.

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Verbatim on the Canadian it would shush all of the NE Pennsylvania people who complained on missing all the snows back In the day 30-36" for that area on the run. But it's good to see that nothing is drastically changing (yet), if these solutions continue, it will be talked abo ut everywhere Tuesday Morning perhaps. (Below)

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I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up.

It's 5 straight runs on the gfs with a very similar storm. That alone is completely different from the rest of this winter.

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I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up.

 

of course you are...you live near the PA border...you'll get crushed

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I agree with this too. At this range the threat of a fail is high but this particular gfs run was not a sign of that IMO. People are jumping on every detail of every run. Until were inside 72 hours just keep the storm in the general area and were in the game. Then we worry about 20 mile moves in the rain snow line or back edge and where banding sets up. That kind of crap is still days away. I'm about as bullish as I can be at 5 days that we see decent snow but even that I would only put at 50/50. If we get to Tuesday and things still look good then I start to ramp up.

It's been quite consistent as a signal really. If it happens it will be an impressive run up of modeling IMO. I'd just be cautious of it meaning that's the end result. Though again at this point I would lean toward some sort of significant low etc. We seek final answers too soon these days across society.. snowstorm watching is just one area you see it. :P

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I was in Northeast Baltimore for 83' and about same age as you and the snow came in fast and real heavy ..probably 2-4 " in hr rates . Remember hearing 5 in /hr in some locals . Great storm for young snow weenies . Got 24 to 27 inches I believe.

I was 8 at the time and it is the first big storm i remember vividly. I was living in NW Baltimore at that time and i think i got somewhere in that range if not a little more. It took my father 7 hours to get home from DC that day. That storm started my fascination with weather.

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Using meteocentre maps for 12z GGEM SLP placement:

 

114 -- 1001mb SLP in NW AL

120 --  997mb SLP in C TN

132 --  994mb SLP in NE NC/SE VA (transfer ongoing... almost complete)

144 -- 983mb SLP just east of ACY

The low gets up to Kentucky and then redevelops but tracks west of ORF which is usually bad for the city and points east.  The 850 zero line gets west of DCA by 00Z Sat so the lowest 5000 feet is above freezing by then.  That doesn't say it is right.  We need a Euro track.  I GFS one will get Luvr snow and Chill would do well but not me or the city. 

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The low gets up to Kentucky and then redevelops but tracks west of ORF which is usually bad for the city and points east. The 850 zero line gets west of DCA by 00Z Sat so the lowest 5000 feet is above freezing by then. That doesn't say it is right. We need a Euro track. I GFS one will get Luvr snow and Chill would do well but not me or the city.

Wes, I'm east of 95 and the city in central aa county and even the GFS has me at 4-8" it looks like. I guess not all of us would do bad.

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