Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 H5 never closes off or gets past neutral when it counts. Ens guidance favors a closed ull. Gfs doesn't have the upper air support to bomb the low but it's still a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 H5 never closes off or gets past neutral when it counts. Ens guidance favors a closed ull. Gfs doesn't have the upper air support to bomb the low but it's still a great run. For you, not so great for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I can't complain about the GFS, ~.6 qpf in 12hrs, all snow IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just when I want to look at past Analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For you, not so great for me. You have the Euro on your side. I wouldn't sweat it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Gonna ride the line. Someone is going to suffer while others crush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In that one frame maybe, but everyone N of DC gets in on some snow that run So basically what I said. MD and NW portion of VA. Not that it really matters anyway -- Just one run of many to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For you, not so great for me. I was speaking in general terms and not verbatim. EPS strongly favors good upper air support. Until that wavers I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's still pretty far out. We have plenty of examples of models lining up at this range then fail at least around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You have the Euro on your side. I wouldn't sweat it just yet. and 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Think I mentioned Feb 1983...someone said no more like Feb 1976...DT must admit 1983 got me into tracking at 9 years old an amazing storm....good comparison on your part I loved that storm. I remember the weak before, because we had asystem finally br Not some snow. Little did we know, that the big one was going to hit. I remember the day before being over at one of my neighbor's house hearing that heavy snow was falling over Virginia. Then when the heavy snow arrived, boy did did come down and in a hurry. Great event. Just hope the models hold onto this big event as go into this week. Tired of seeing these events crumble. Let's hope this system has time to bomb off the East Coast, plus keeping that arctic air around. Maybe the mild weather pattern gets delayed or even canceled.. Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For you, not so great for me. we're borderline....it's all snow (with maybe a little sleet mix) for DCA....Who knows...we may end up having to deal with a dicey situation with this storm....I'm not really sweating this run, but I guess a variety of solutions possible...though wide right seems very unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Model run waffling. It's a long ways away people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Obviously this is gonna be off in such a marginal situation but its fun to look at anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 850 is pretty much straddling DC for a portion of the storm, which we normally do in the city so we should expect that, but we appear to stay all snow in DC but I haven't looked at soundings for the whole column. Interesting look to the snow maps (yes, I know, they're snow maps so not the most reliable in setups where we straddle the mixing line). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The GFS has been fairly consistent for about 24 hours now. Definitely makes me feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 H5 never closes off or gets past neutral when it counts. Ens guidance favors a closed ull. Gfs doesn't have the upper air support to bomb the low but it's still a great run. yep. If you know "how to read the gfs" this was a good run. It has issues with how to handle the coastal transfer and development. Omg what else is new! But it has the setup and the waa thump snow. That's important because that's a higher prob bet then anything from the coastal later is bonus. Maybe we get hecs maybe just a thump to dry slot but either way that setup gets us off the mat for the season. Oh yea and it's 120 hours away so chill out with these meso scale fine details on each gfs run please!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 sorry ahead of time if this isnt allowed to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If models hold up looks a lot like '87 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 sorry ahead of time if this isnt allowed to be posted. hasnt transferred yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS has a 1025 weak ass HP to the north and thats why temps are a bit of an issue. If that gets a little bit better and just stays there temps will be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GGEM at 12z FRI has 999mb SLP in TN 12z GGEM at 12z SAT has 984mb just east of ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in panels the para is crazy uniform. 15-18 for everybody in the burbs. Garrett Co will be closed for a couple days with 3' Total precip at dca is 2" and 15" of snow so the mixing is evident. My neck is 1.8 precip and 17" so the para is showing a classic big miller A with pretty standard mixing zones. Para EPS looks great too Few days ago most of us would kill for 3" of snow, so can't be greedy here I don't need a foot of snow. I'm cool with half that at this point, let's be honest. I want 12"+ we've had a bunch of 3-6" storms the last 2 winters....Total waste of time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yep. Can't caution people enough (esp near the cities and the lurkers who join during exciting times) to not set your expectations to the 00z runs or any of these op runs really. We have an eternity to go, and op support for a snowstorm this far out isn't worth much IMO. Things can change for better or worse on a dime. I'd say there's quite strong support for an event that causes snow in the broader region. But even at this range I wouldn't be shocked to see it change significantly. Past that... I dunno. I'd favor N&W for now obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If models hold up looks a lot like '87 storm: 19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg Not really. Per the model NNE doesnt get anything. I am sure they are not very happy with this run up there. It's east of them mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS has a 1025 weak ass HP to the north and thats why temps are a bit of an issue. If that gets a little bit better and just stays there temps will be ok Yes. It was 1028 on the 6z run. It's along ways off to know what that HP is gonna be. That will be a huge factor on how good the front end thump is obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol...The Canadian is like 30" of snow for the western Burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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