EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Feb '83 was in-and-out in a hurry, but the dynamics were ridiculous. Not sure of the setup at the time, but the cold HP for that storm was a heck of a lot colder than this one looks to be. I had temps in the low teens that entire day while 32" piled up in under 16 hours. Thundersnow at 13F is something I don't expect to ever see again in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Starts around 1030 We have a whole week to look forward to, "this will be the most important model run of the 2015-16 winter season". (Until the next one of course) Seriously though, we've all been put through the ringer 5-6+ days out. It's there one run, an inland runner the next, only to come back in our favor (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I believe as we get closer to the storm, and Bob may be able to explain it better than I can, that we start seeing a 2 part system. There will the initial WAA ahead of the ULL, and then once the energy loops around the base of the trough the low will end up bombing and then you get the deformation and CCB snows....Where that sets up @ this point is anyone's guess. Could be Ohio to out in the Atlantic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 00z EURO & Par EURO were such epic bombs because if you look at the 144-150 hr 500mb progs you can see the energy rounding the base of the trough...it ends up bombing the hell out of the low @ that point and you get a blizzard West of the low at that point. The GFS is having issues with that & will probably have issues with that as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in panels the para is crazy uniform. 15-18 for everybody in the burbs. Garrett Co will be closed for a couple days with 3' Total precip at dca is 2" and 15" of snow so the mixing is evident. My neck is 1.8 precip and 17" so the para is showing a classic big miller A with pretty standard mixing zones. The QPF numbers from the para are ridiculous. It might be the highest QPF numbers I have ever seen at that long of a lead time. It's like a weenine NAM run. And once again the snow accum maps remind of 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thru 60 hrs not many changes. I'd say our energy (crashing into NW CONUS) is a touch slower & maybe a touch stronger) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I love how we all are waiting for the other shoe to drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hberg, the biggest shot of confidence last night was the eps closing off h5 @150-156. First ens run to do that. Not to mention how many members are showing solid hit. If the ull passes mostly south of us then we are going to do quite well. Classic signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Super El Bombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Super El Bombo I can't wait for social media and the lay people to get a hold of the word "bombogenesis" again. Cringeworthy every time it gets out on Twitter and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks good through 93. Low pressure down in OK -Very similar to 06z at 108. Good to have some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Of course, it only catches on if it is a I-95 snow event. I believe this past coastal was technically a bomb. Yes good point. Honestly there should be a master list of meteorological terms that should be banned from usage if you have no idea what you're talking about Polar vortex, derecho, bombogenesis are among my top contenders. Anyway back on topic - last nights model runs sure brought the giddiness back to our subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 like I said FEB 11-12 1983 Think I mentioned Feb 1983...someone said no more like Feb 1976...DT must admit 1983 got me into tracking at 9 years old an amazing storm....good comparison on your part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Super El Bombo The worst was when they had that "Santabomb" a few years ago. Who made up that horrible name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS is less wrapped up than 6z GFS @ 114 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hmmm...seems a little less consolidated a little warmer through 111. Further East and a little warmer through 114 - not quite as much CAD it seems like. Not sure how this will impact the end result. (Nice snow for DC/Baltimore at 120, but temps are realllly close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I like how to a certain degree GFS is trending towards EURO with energy rounding the base @ 117 hrs, once that energy fully comes acround it would close off the ULL and bomb the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snowmageddon I think? Jan 7th 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Still looks like an overnight start time, 06z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So far just WAA moisture, the main energy is actually still around the FL coast. The GFS is going to have a real tough time with a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Weaker HP to the north this run. Hence its warmer. Still a lot to work out obviously. Verbatim its a crushing for NOVA and most of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So far just WAA moisture, the main energy is actually still around the FL coast. The GFS is going to have a real tough time with a storm like this. It's fine. Storm is still there and we're on the edge. Same story as the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Rain for most of VA except for the far NW portion and western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Think I mentioned Feb 1983...someone said no more like Feb 1976...DT must admit 1983 got me into tracking at 9 years old an amazing storm....good comparison on your part Marginally like 1983.. not sure that's the best analog other than it's a strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Please don't panic when it comes to a GFS run 5 days out, signal is still amazing. It was very closed to a HECS. GFS having a tough time figuring out where to put the low, tons of energy rotating around the trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's fine. Storm is still there and we're on the edge. Same story as the last run. Yup. At this range, that's about all we can (or really even should) take away from this. Temp differences one way or another are fairly subtle, and the details of how the energy is going to come together are far from settled. Even though this isn't a plastering, I think it's still fairly encouraging. The pieces are all there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The worst was when they had that "Santabomb" a few years ago. Who made up that horrible name? Yeah that guy sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks a little weird to me, like 850mb looks warmer than it should be, nice hit for Central and Northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Rain for most of VA except for the far NW portion and western MD. In that one frame maybe, but everyone N of DC gets in on some snow that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You can see a sign of redevelopment if you look at the moisture blooming @ 138 hours around E MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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