Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't have the Para in front of me, but I know for example it shows 16-25" for Philly region with 3 feet in parts of C PA and MD. I imagine its a huge hit for you guys as well It's a nuke. Tracks just inside obx then 990mb over Hampton roads. Track is too close for all snow in the cities but mid teen accums anyways. Winchester gains 2-3 feet in elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellJohnson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This is going to be a fun week. Need this to be a good amount for snow plowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's a nuke. Tracks just inside obx then 990mb over Hampton roads. Track is too close for all snow in the cities but mid teen accums anyways. Winchester gains 2-3 feet in elevation I'll buy you a beer if you post it... and btw....for an amateur...you sure do a great job. Dare I say I hope to have your skillset someday. Been a rough one, but looking forward to learning from you some more this week. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ryan Maue just tweeted that the Para Euro snow map is one of the biggest he has ever seen for the MA? Anyone confirm what it shows? talked about it earlier in the thread. 3ft totals for Deep Creek, Altoona, State College. 18 for bwi, 15/16 for DCA. 2 ft+ for winchester, front royal, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in panels the para is crazy uniform. 15-18 for everybody in the burbs. Garrett Co will be closed for a couple days with 3' Total precip at dca is 2" and 15" of snow so the mixing is evident. My neck is 1.8 precip and 17" so the para is showing a classic big miller A with pretty standard mixing zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good morning fellow snow nuts and weenies! Just catching up on last night's discussion in here, noting there were several new pages since yesterday evening. All I can say is...wow. Best night of the year thus far in terms of any potential event. I went through those pages kind of quickly to get an overview, but my sense is that (1)the Euro has the low emerge more from the south whereas the GFS tends to have it west with re-development off the coast, thus the GFS is a bit more "problematic" in terms of thermal profiles for part of the storm, (2)the Euro apparently(?) has a bit of a stronger high bending to our north. So the Euro is more a classic Miller-A, though even the GFS is as the storm comes out of the southern stream. The thing that's stood out about this is that even the "less than perfect" solutions still give us something worth talking about and most of those give us decent snow all the same. That's different from what we had before, I think. Heck, something along the lines of Feb. 2014 wouldn't be bad, and we all knew that one would change over for awhile at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Liquid on the Para is nuts. 3.5" for deep creek. 2" for bwi, over 3" for parts of the northern neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in panels the para is crazy uniform. 15-18 for everybody in the burbs. Garrett Co will be closed for a couple days with 3' Total precip at dca is 2" and 15" of snow so the mixing is evident. My neck is 1.8 precip and 17" so the para is showing a classic big miller A with pretty standard mixing zones. I'd take a lot of snow, followed by some kind of mix/sleet, followed by some wrap-around bands any day. Not that it matters to dig into details this far out, but I'm sure everyone would like to avoid a period of all (heavy) rain in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seems strange that a precip max would occur so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seems strange that a precip max would occur so far west. I imagine if we got to see the 500mb map it would have a huge closed off ULL...That is why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The main difference with the para vs op is the para tracks the primary in to KY and redevelops over SC. Op is a straight shot from the south. Thermals look great with both leading in. Para precip start time is somewhere around 6am or so on Friday a little quicker than the op. Temps at onset are upper 20's to 30. During the day the surface freezing line does go west of 95 but temps along 95 only go 34 tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Few days ago most of us would kill for 3" of snow, so can't be greedy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in panels the para is crazy uniform. 15-18 for everybody in the burbs. Garrett Co will be closed for a couple days with 3' Total precip at dca is 2" and 15" of snow so the mixing is evident. My neck is 1.8 precip and 17" so the para is showing a classic big miller A with pretty standard mixing zones. Looks good Bob. But in still hesitant to jump all in. But I will say, this has the most support so far this lousy winter. Bring it home brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellJohnson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Few days ago most of us would kill for 3" of snow, so can't be greedy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellJohnson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I would kill for 1 inch at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 "Paging Ravesnrule. Ravensrule to the Long-range thread" Anyway, just for fun I have matured greatly in my old age and will not touch that with a ten foot pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The main difference with the para vs op is the para tracks the primary in to KY and redevelops over SC. Op is a straight shot from the south. Thermals look great with both leading in. Para precip start time is somewhere around 6am or so on Friday a little quicker than the op. Temps at onset are upper 20's to 30. During the day the surface freezing line does go west of 95 but temps along 95 only go 34 tops. Thanks, Bob. The GFS, from my cursory glance just a few moments ago has a primary go into KY as well, with re-development at that time...but it is more inland at first which I guess is why there are "issues" for awhile closer to I-95 and east. Also, the primary doesn't totally dissipate in that time period in the GFS. The 06Z GFS appears a tad farther east from what I can tell with the re-development. Parsing details here, I know, but just trying to visualize the subtle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So when does the server crash if the model shows the same thing in the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Few days ago most of us would kill for 3" of snow, so can't be greedy here Yeah, we'd all like to get on the board before the month is out, finally! Maybe a tad greedy because there's actually a reasonable chance at something significant now. But I think many on here would be happy with an "imperfect" event that still gives us a significant amount of snow (that doesn't just get washed away!). By the way, slightly different topic. As I was catching up in here earlier, I saw your comment about the wacky-looking pattern in the long-range 18Z GFS. I saw that too, very strange but a really nice block if only something like that could happen! 00Z had it too, to some extent. Not that we can trust ops runs out in time like that, but it was interesting all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys, stop posting euro snow maps..it's not allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't need a foot of snow. I'm cool with half that at this point, let's be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't need a foot of snow. I'm cool with half that at this point, let's be honest.But let's be honest, anything short of a major storm will leave everyone disappointed after that porn last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't need a foot of snow. I'm cool with half that at this point, let's be honest. I want the para to verify. Seasonal climo at dca in one storm is kick azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Guys, stop posting euro snow maps..it's not allowed mods need to delete them. we don't want to get a bad rep. weenie fever taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let's be honest, this has been a horrid winter. I didn't suffer through a T-day to Christmas nuking, and 3 weeks of cold /dry, warm/wet January for anything less than a HECS. We need this. We deserve this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I want the para to verify. Seasonal climo at dca in one storm is kick azz. wouldnt it be crazy if this verifies...and then we go back to AN and still get climo out of one gig... guess with this year not outside the realm of possibilities. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Let's be honest, this has been a horrid winter. I didn't suffer through a T-day to Christmas nuking, and 3 weeks of cold /dry, warm/wet January for anything less than a HECS. We need this. We deserve this!! I want either a KU or a shutout. All or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussellJohnson Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 When does 12z GFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 When does 12z GFS come out? Starts around 1030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What's in place to turn this into a KU? Is there some blocking being shown? It seems like we sometimes see models spit out huge QPF for Miller As but then the storm moves so damn fast it doesn't reach potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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