WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Trust the ensembles. As nj2va said earlier, best eps run of thr year. Pretty tight slp track that basically crushes all of us. Mean snowfall for you is 9". Members look excellent and all other op guidance supports it now. Prepare to plow. My question was tongue in cheek..... I'm greasing the plow as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 given the GFS track record over the past weeks months year with east coast winter storms it is imperative that you do not marry the GFS - especially the OP RUNS no matter how great or crappy they are for your location IMO they are worthless pass 72/ 84 hrs lot of folks pm me or email "DT you see 12z GFS or 6z or 18z etc ? " and My answer is alwasy the same I dont give a **** what the GFS says when it comes to east coast winter storms past 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Majors were so good last night no one even had to bother mentioning the navgem has 988 just east of ocean city. Lol I mentioned how good it looked at 12z. Might have been in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Lol you complain a lot. But nice 6z Gfs looks pretty. Gonna be a fun day of playoff football, SnowTV (hopefully), and model watching! I wasn't trying to complain. I was answering someone's question. Some people are allowed to post Euro stuff here while others are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't typically go with the cmc but it had a pretty plausable solution last night with the first low tracking up in to the Ohio valley and then transfer right around Virginia beach. With that scenario we get stay in the warm sector. Yes any OP solution is "plausible" but look to its ensembles. It didn't have the support of last night's GEPS, which the mean favored a Miller A track with a coastal off OBX heading ENE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm greasing the plow as we speak. "Paging Ravesnrule. Ravensrule to the Long-range thread" Anyway, just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We're really outside the range of all of the op models. At this range, I'd estimate that the Euro is roughly 12 hours "ahead" of the GFS. So the Euro at 168 156 hours is about as good as the GFS at 156, which is not very good. The best thing to do at this range is to look at the ensembles, and then throw in the op runs as if they're ensemble members with extra weight. That's why it's particulary encouraging that this threat has support from multiple ensembles and op runs. As others have said, at this range it's the best look we've seen all season. But everything should be taken with a grain of salt the cosmic Etch-a-Sketch that God uses to communicate His will. There, fixed my own post after seeing last night's Euro run. I'll just go with that until the 12z run, at which point I may reconsider again. Wow to all of you who stayed up for the Euro run last night (and bonus points for those who stayed up for the EPS). That was pretty impressive. FWIW, the GEPS ticked snowier last night, but there are still a lot of rainy solutions for DC. ETA: Fewer big hits on the GEPS last night, but I'm not sure how much that matters at this point. There are still a lot of members east of the op / control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Did I misinterpret the Canadian? I am pretty sure that's exactly what it wasdepicted.... If we are gonna get screwed that's how it is going down. If you post in this thread, be objective. You always find the worst scenario to hone in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LWX is getting interested (this is their new winter weather product). Source: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 There, fixed my own post after seeing last night's Euro run. I'll just go with that until the 12z run, at which point I may reconsider again. Wow to all of you who stayed up for the Euro run last night (and bonus points for those who stayed up for the EPS). That was pretty impressive. FWIW, the GEPS ticked snowier last night, but there are still a lot of rainy solutions for DC. ETA: Fewer big hits on the GEPS last night, but I'm not sure how much that matters at this point. There are still a lot of members east of the op / control. Your edit is hilarious. May just be the post of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Even though I am extremely giddy right now I am also extremely cautious. Looking @ the 6z GFS for example it seems like (to me at least) that it is misplacing the low. Based on the 500mb map I feel like the actual low should be farther N than the 6z GFS is putting it. Take a look @ this; If all you had to go off was the image above you would probably say the GFS was showing a rain storm for the area, but at the time frame there is a low dying out in West Viriginia & a new low forming over Eastern North Carolina. Long way to go, but I really need someone to pinch me and wake me up, this is amazing. The potential here is OFF the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Even though I am extremely giddy right now I am also extremely cautious. Looking @ the 6z GFS for example it seems like (to me at least) that it is misplacing the low. Based on the 500mb map I feel like the actual low should be farther N than the 6z GFS is putting it. Take a look @ this; misplaced.gif If all you had to go off was the image above you would probably say the GFS was showing a rain storm for the area, but at the time frame there is a low dying out in West Viriginia & a new low forming over Eastern North Carolina. Long way to go, but I really need someone to pinch me and wake me up, this is amazing. The potential here is OFF the charts. It still would depend on the damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you post in this thread, be objective. You always find the worst scenario to hone in on. You know you are right. Maybe it is time to change. Ever since Dec 26, 2010, something happened to me. Its like I can't let go. I am pretty sure that I got divorced over that debacle. Ever since then I have basically been an a-hole. Maybe this is the redemption storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No one posted this, but the 18z Parallel GFS was pretty wrapped up & inland...However the 00z came much farther E and is a solid hit. (the parallel runs are 6 hours behind so for example the 6z Par GFS comes out around the same time the 12z OP does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Before the 12z suite starts to run... Lets just say it has been a fun last 24 hours. First time since last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You know you are right. Maybe it is time to change. Ever since Dec 26, 2010, something happened to me. Its like I can't let go. I am pretty sure that I got divorced over that debacle. Ever since then I have basically been an a-hole. Maybe this is the redemption storm. The SREFs are forever trash in my view since that storm. They totally blew it. Showed a half inch of precip for the area steadily even as the storm was passing us by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I went to sleep after Matt's "massacre post" and didn't even realize the Euro kept going after that with this storm. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 You know you are right. Maybe it is time to change. Ever since Dec 26, 2010, something happened to me. Its like I can't let go. I am pretty sure that I got divorced over that debacle. Ever since then I have basically been an a-hole. Maybe this is the redemption storm. Well, I'm sorry for your troubles. Weather has to be something you enjoy, not depend on. If it's any consolation, when posters like Matt, Ian, Bob, Hi-Z, DT......are excited, your chances are good. Long way to go, but with all on board, it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No one posted this, but the 18z Parallel GFS was pretty wrapped up & inland...However the 00z came much farther E and is a solid hit. (the parallel runs are 6 hours behind so for example the 6z Par GFS comes out around the same time the 12z OP does) It's perfect because it's like having even more models to digest 10x the fun for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 My question was tongue in cheek..... I'm greasing the plow as we speak. OMG, no. I understand the excitement, but I'm having a hard time working up a legit whoop because of our history of collapse this far out. Like all of us, I wish this was 60 hours out. Like others have said, its gonna be a long ass week here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Since it is still a few days away I think it is only common sense that there will be changes(some significant) every model run. And I bet that the STJ will be a bigger factor in this wrt precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you post in this thread, be objective. You always find the worst scenario to hone in on. Trust me, its not just him though. "rain" etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also... I believe this is a win for the GFS... even if it does not pan out. The Euro went to the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ryan Maue just tweeted that the Para Euro snow map is one of the biggest he has ever seen for the MA? Anyone confirm what it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just for craps and giggles...The 6z DGEX (extension of the 6z NAM) has a huge storm that kind of scoots ENE from the Capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ryan Maue just tweeted that the Para Euro snow map is one of the biggest he has ever seen for the MA? Anyone confirm what it shows? I don't have the Para in front of me, but I know for example it shows 16-25" for Philly region with 3 feet in parts of C PA and MD. I imagine its a huge hit for you guys as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Also... I believe this is a win for the GFS... even if it does not pan out. The Euro went to the GFS solution x2....was just thinking the same thing. GFS was on the trail before the King was.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 OMG, no. I understand the excitement, but I'm having a hard time working up a legit whoop because of our history of collapse this far out. Like all of us, I wish this was 60 hours out. Like others have said, its gonna be a long ass week here. I was joking. I'm with you, 5 days is an eternity. I will say that 4 straight runs of the gfs showing the same thing gives me confidence. It simply hasn't done that at that time range all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Regardless of where this ends up, catching up over the last 12 hours of posts reminds me of why I enjoy this forum year after year. The excitement I feel is shared by all. Can anyone share the Para Euro numbers for the MA? I want to drop it into my porn folder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was joking. I'm with you, 5 days is an eternity. I will say that 4 straight runs of the gfs showing the same thing gives me confidence. It simply hasn't done that at that time range all season. And a lot of sleepless nights if the models keep going in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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