Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We've been here before with this. Not being negative, just realistic. We really need to get something in the 0-120 hour time frame. No doubt. It can fall apart much easier than work out. Has some things going for it. Most importantly, really nice sprawling high pressure for the first time. Both the GEFS and EPS have very similar ideas right now. And it's on the tail end of relaxing -AO. Seems like the drive to the lakes idea is losing traction as well. All we can do is sit back and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wow just saw the EURO ens...that is a beaut, bets of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 No doubt. It can fall apart much easier than work out. Has some things going for it. Most importantly, really nice sprawling high pressure for the first time. Both the GEFS and EPS have very similar ideas right now. And it's on the tail end of relaxing -AO. Seems like the drive to the lakes idea is losing traction as well. All we can do is sit back and watch. Very important IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No doubt. It can fall apart much easier than work out. Has some things going for it. Most importantly, really nice sprawling high pressure for the first time. Both the GEFS and EPS have very similar ideas right now. And it's on the tail end of relaxing -AO. Seems like the drive to the lakes idea is losing traction as well. All we can do is sit back and watch. The less we need to go right at this range the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Very important IMO. Better than not but we've seen widespread agreement totally fail at this range. Which I'm sure you know.. but these convos here eventually become rooting for snow sessions quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Better than not but we've seen widespread agreement totally fail at this range. Which I'm sure you know.. but these convos here eventually become rooting for snow sessions quite often. Ian, interesting look on the eps @ h5 d11-15. Looks like we warm a bit after whatever happens next week but things progressive to what I think would be a deep south storm track with sprawling HP across the eastern half of Canada that would block cuts. Temps aren't cold or anything but I could imagine a nice storm track with that look. Cold rain or warm snow galore. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z GFSx rolling out now... Link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Better than not but we've seen widespread agreement totally fail at this range. Which I'm sure you know.. but these convos here eventually become rooting for snow sessions quite often. The good news is that the cold shot is legit and is not a 24-48 hour in and out deal. Usually when a cold shot has 3-4 day staying power is does produce something even if it's just a 2-4 inch front end then ice/rain finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 What is it listed under here? It looks like the exact same page as the normal GFS, but it isn't. if you use the link mageval.ncep.noaa.gov you're going to get the GFSx....if you get the GFS through the mag.ncep.noaa.gov that is going to be the normal GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not sure why they didn't just add a separate category for the GFSx on the main model page, but I'm sure there is a good reason for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not sure why they didn't just add a separate category for the GFSx on the main model page, but I'm sure there is a good reason for it. Because it's not operational. Simple as that. The main page is widely known by "armchair enthusiasts" - they probably just don't want people taking the GFSx and displaying it as the regular GFS to the general public. Tho with social media that problem has probably already arrived If they displayed all of the models regardless of whether they are operational or not there'd be so many I feel like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Because it's not operational. Simple as that. The main page is widely known by "armchair enthusiasts" - they probably just don't want people taking the GFSx and displaying it as the regular GFS to the general public. Tho with social media that problem has probably already arrived If they displayed all of the models regardless of whether they are operational or not there'd be so many I feel like. Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ian, interesting look on the eps @ h5 d11-15. Looks like we warm a bit after whatever happens next week but things progressive to what I think would be a deep south storm track with sprawling HP across the eastern half of Canada that would block cuts. Temps aren't cold or anything but I could imagine a nice storm track with that look. Cold rain or warm snow galore. lol Definitely not sold on any lengthy warm spell given the southern jet is raging and looks to stay that way. We're just sitting in the left exit region as well for the last few days so that could certainly be stormy. tho HM just posted "late Jan into early Feb looking warm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is no one going to even throw out the fact that the GFSX gives us all 1-2 feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is no one going to even throw out the fact that the GFSX gives us all 1-2 feet of snow? I only have it to 129 hours, its out beyond that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ian, interesting look on the eps @ h5 d11-15. Looks like we warm a bit after whatever happens next week but things progressive to what I think would be a deep south storm track with sprawling HP across the eastern half of Canada that would block cuts. Temps aren't cold or anything but I could imagine a nice storm track with that look. Cold rain or warm snow galore. lolive been seeing that possibility too and the ggem seems to agree. I like the look. Not cold but stormy and puts us in play. I know its hard to go through it and be patient but it's jan 14 and things really are progressing right on schedule. We knew the first half was going to be an uphill battle. But the script to salvage a decent winter is actually being followed. High latitude blocking periods. Signs the ridging wants to set up further northwest not over the northeast. Southern storm track starting to show up. After jan 20 it's time to start scoring for sure but we're not off track yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The 0z Parallel Euro is hideous.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z GFSx @ 162 hrs, not bad 500mb Check out the HP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is no one going to even throw out the fact that the GFSX gives us all 1-2 feet of snow? For when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For when? I'd imagine he means the Day 8-9 event, but it is only out to 162 hrs on the site so unless he has a source that gets it before us IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The 0z Parallel Euro is hideous..Do you mean 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z GFSx @ 162 hrs, not bad 500mb 162.gif Check out the HP: 1621.gif Is that a banana high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Do you mean 12z? I think he means 00z because it takes forever to come out on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea the 12z GFSx is still too far inland, but its farther S than its 6z counterpart. So a nice step down. It does NOT give us 1-2 feet of snow like that 1 poster said, not sure what he was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Para GFS.. sfc looks a bit mild but lots of precip at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea the 12z GFSx is still too far inland, but its farther S than its 6z counterpart. So a nice step down. That 1-2 feet thing was a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That 1-2 feet thing was a joke? Yes, or he got bad information idk.....Check it out for yourself its up to 192 hrs...it is a big step in right direction though compared to the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Para GFS.. sfc looks a bit mild but lots of precip at least. Yeah, that's a snow-to-rain sort of deal on the para. Mostly the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So is no one going to even throw out the fact that the GFSX gives us all 1-2 feet of snow?i have no idea why or what the changes are on it but when I've looked at the gfsx it has shown some crazy solutions at range. Not just over amped but weird convective precip bands that seem to throw the whole system off. It just feels funky to me sometimes. Like a nam type feel. Can't put my finger on it but I don't like the feel of that model so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, that's a snow-to-rain sort of deal on the para. Mostly the latter. yeah it basically crawls right on the coast. a little too close for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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