Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm gonna enjoy these cold days leading up to this. Cold is king in this area.That's the one thing we haven't had that we'll finally have this week: CONSISTENT cold leading up to a potential storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I might be one of the few people who uses the actual ecmwf.int website to view the EURO (I have SV, but it is jammed tonight)... There actually looks like there would be another storm developing on the Day 10 EURO lol I was just going to post something is brewing come day 10.Interestingly, I just checked the Euro text output and the column is above freezing after the storm ends. We'll need to reload the pattern to keep things going. I recall PD1 also ended with temps rising above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I know it's weenieish but I had to take a look at the cobb numbers. The GFS has mixing even into IAD. All snow west of Mount Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z EPS mean looks nice...a little less progressive than 12Z...a little warm, but it's a mean...clocks the western burbs....probably some killer members in there along with a few suppressed and a few inland....I'm guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z EPS mean looks nice...a little less progressive than 12Z...a little warm, but it's a mean...clocks the western burbs....probably some killer members in there along with a few suppressed and a few inland....I'm guessing The profile here looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z EPS mean looks nice...a little less progressive than 12Z...a little warm, but it's a mean...clocks the western burbs....probably some killer members in there along with a few suppressed and a few inland....I'm guessingThanks Matt i was waiting for that to go to bed. Get some rest it's going to be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks Matt i was waiting for that to go to bed. Get some rest it's going to be a long week. Agreed, a big thank you to Matt and Highzenberg for the excellent work. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's a massacre....especially for western burbslol...you usually say next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro has storm developing thursday. That's 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 6z gfs just produces only a mecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like I missed a party last night. And the 6z gfs still looks good. And my pt n click shows snow likely for friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I was trying to dig back...but to no avail...any thoughts on the "follow up thaw"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z EPS mean snowfall for this window is up to 6" at DCA, by far our biggest signal yet. The track is pretty classic Miller A for us. Also, the 0z Euro Parallel is a major hit, especially for interior. It's now more like the GFS in that it tracks a low into TN valley and transfers a coastal that tracks from GA to SC to Hampton Roads (990) and finally bombs sub-990 off the VA coast. The usual places would flip to non-snow before changing back to snow. It gives the cities over a foot of snow but two bullseyes (2' near Winchester and almost 3' for a narrow swath from Garrett County into central PA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anyone have qpf from the euro for my next of the woods? Nice work overnight, Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anyone have qpf from the euro for my next of the woods? Nice work overnight, Matt The OP and Para are each ~1.5-1.6" for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0Z Para GFS is good for DC - looks like it stays snow for the entire event. And as others have mentioned, the 6z GFS is an improvement from the earlier runs and hits the area pretty good. Temps are close but stays good it looks like. Nothing to be concerned about 5+ days away. I like that some of the players are on the field in 72/96 hours - so while the storm is still 130+ hours away, the models should start getting a good handle of the set-up over the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 since you like maps mappy.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 6z GFS gets the snow in here by 7am Friday (HR 132). 6z GEFS mean snowfall is up to 5" for this storm, though half of the members don't give DC more than 2" of snow. Looking at the SLP panels, those members are either tracking the low too far north for our latitude before the transfer to the coast, too amped up sending the low inland over VA, or OTS (1 member). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I like the fact that this far out we still have wiggle room according to the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just so we're all on the same page and since we all have different sources for the Euro....has anything changed with what can/cannot be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks guys... Finally got out of bed and looked on my iPad. Looks good up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just so we're all on the same page and since we all have different sources for the Euro....has anything changed with what can/cannot be posted? Pretty sure they still can't be posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty sure they still can't be posted... That's what I thought. Party time last night had me confused. And EuroWx.com now clearly states on their site that the data is not for distribution. I believe that is a change since last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just finished reading up from the overnight crew. Awesome analysis. Thank you to everyone who contributed. And holy HECS! Brought a tear to my eye. I apparently have been waiting for this one since either 83 or 03? Just praying the models stay the course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Quite the difference in the NW extent of the precip/snow between the regular Euro op and para. Still great, but it really clobbers on a line from Elkins>Deep Creek>Altoona>State College. Like a difference of 3" liquid between the two for State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Majors were so good last night no one even had to bother mentioning the navgem has 988 just east of ocean city. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For some people the rules don't apply. I've posted Euro maps from wxbell before and it got taken down but if you are special then you are allowed to post them it seems. I also asked a couple people why it was okay for some people to post them but got no answer lol. Lol you complain a lot. But nice 6z Gfs looks pretty. Gonna be a fun day of playoff football, SnowTV (hopefully), and model watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, if I'm supposed to trust the Euro, which one do I trust? The one that showed a bomb last night or the one that show a suppressed storm yesterday? Or do I trust the consistent GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, if I'm supposed to trust the Euro, which one do I trust? The one that showed a bomb last night or the one that show a suppressed storm yesterday? Or do I trust the consistent GFS? Trust the ensembles. As nj2va said earlier, best eps run of thr year. Pretty tight slp track that basically crushes all of us. Mean snowfall for you is 9". Members look excellent and all other op guidance supports it now. Prepare to plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ok, if I'm supposed to trust the Euro, which one do I trust? The one that showed a bomb last night or the one that show a suppressed storm yesterday? Or do I trust the consistent GFS? They both have a pretty significant event at this point lol. There will be shifts upcoming. I am not focusing on the details on any one model at this point. Just too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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