Ji Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 They trying to put me in west virginia. Too dumb for Northern Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you go by the DT 96hr gfs guideline then this run is a definite improvement DT is more like an 84 hour guy with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Surface high was weaker on this run was my concern. I like that the precip gets here sooner though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 EURO is rolling, lets reel in the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It seems like its the Euro/UKMET vs the GFS/GGEM at this range so far. Euro/UKMET favor a 'Miller A' type track with the low crossing across the south to off the SC coast and heading NE near OBX. GFS and GGEM favor a 'Miller B' type track (though they differ on the transfer, etc). At this point with what we've seen this winter, I'd have to lean towards the Euro/UKMET solution given the progressive nature of the pattern. I "worry" more about an OTS solution than an amped low tracking too close to the coast. Just a weenie's thoughts as we wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I cant tell, is DT thinking this will be a non event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I cant tell, is DT thinking this will be a non event? Yeah...wondering the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS solution = a lot of rain for Richmond (I think). Euro = snow for Richmond (and a lot less for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 @ 75 hours the wave hitting the NW CONUS looks stronger than 12z EURO. Looks more GFS like, this could lead to a better run, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I cant tell, is DT thinking this will be a non event? No, I think DT is arguing for a more positively tilted ULL that will effect the SE & Mid-Atlantic. I don't think he sees it as a full blown Nor Easter like the GFS & GGEM show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you compare the 500mb of the 00z EURO @ 90 vs. the 12z run @ 102 & the 00z GFS @ 90 it def made a trend towards looking like the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Day 4 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 @ 117 HRs it isn't as wrapped up as the 00z GFS, but it def looks much improbed from 12z. Like it won't cut off from the flow this run possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Day 5 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Energy rounding the base of the trough @ 120 hours, should start to bring the low NE-ward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 wah stuck at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z EURO the base of the trough was almost in Mexico @ 132 hours, the 00z EURO @ 120 hours the base is in NW Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty classic slp and hp placement @ 120. It's a great signal at 5+ day leads with this run. Definitely not burying stuff and cutting it off early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Vista stuck @ 120 hours and it was looking really goodto me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's a pretty meager looking low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Pretty classic slp and hp placement @ 120. It's a great signal at 5+ day leads with this run. Definitely not burying stuff and cutting it off early. Yep, you of course do a much better job @ explaining things....The EURO has been doing that goofy thing of cutting it off from the flow early. If we ever see the end of this run it would probably be decent I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 precip gets into DC late morning Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Vista stuck @ 120 hours and it was looking really goodto me. lol Right such a tease.... i wonder if WxBell will get stuck too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's a pretty meager looking low The low is just forming @ 120 hrs, you wouldn't want that strong of a low at this point because that would mean it is already closing off or cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 precip gets into DC late morning Friday We need you to update, SV is stuck on my end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Day 6 500mb, 850mb & surface. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 0.4" at DCA through 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's a massacre....especially for western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Day 6 500mb, 850mb & surface. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest That looks really good, you got 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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