WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php The January storm set the single day snowfall record in Wv. Near Beckley at Flat Top. 35" I believe. Total elevation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Found another on 2/24. I must have given up on the winter by that point as I don't remember it at all. Again, retreating air mass that was marginal to begin with (pocket of -5C over the Lakes). The maps show what looks like a deform band with sub 0 850s over/east of DC as the low pulled away...maybe that's responsible for the 0.7 IAD recorded that month? I don't have the daily snowfall data to check. As bad as this winter has been we should be much better with cold air this week than we ever were in 98. The -5C line was parked up near Hudson's bay most of February that year. Agree that the upcoming event looks like 1/27 in terms of upper level trough evolution. Will be interesting to see if the colder air/slightly better HP placement makes a meaningful difference in the outcome. IAD- 0.5" on 2/4 and 0.2" on 2/24. This is a quick place to check for the airports from 1995-2013-- click on "Precipitation": http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACONdata.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 a storm quite close to the coast I would think would be bad news depending on high placement and storm strength. Ocean temps are still quite balmy. A flow out of the ENE or East would be the kiss of death for areas along I-95 but certainly south and east of that point. Again though pointless to even worry about this too much yet. Cape May, NJ 45.0 °F Atlantic City, NJ 44.1 °F Lewes, DE 45.0 °F Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 44.1 °F Wachapreague, VA48.0 °FOcean City Inlet, MD46.9 °FKiptopeke, VA46.9 °FBishops Head, MD44.1 °FChesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA48.0 °FCambridge, MD42.1 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 On the other side of this coin though is potential faster low development over these warm waters. Will be interesting to see if this helps a storm quite close to the coast I would think would be bad news depending on high placement and storm strength. Ocean temps are still quite balmy. A flow out of the ENE or East would be the kiss of death for areas along I-95 but certainly south and east of that point. Again though pointless to even worry about this too much yet. Cape May, NJ 45.0 °F Atlantic City, NJ 44.1 °F Lewes, DE 45.0 °F Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 44.1 °F Wachapreague, VA48.0 °FOcean City Inlet, MD46.9 °FKiptopeke, VA46.9 °FBishops Head, MD44.1 °FChesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA48.0 °FCambridge, MD42.1 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I know this is pointless, but did anyone notice the uber LR GFS showed another Western block and had many snow threats....Pretty interesting stuff. Knock on wood, but we are tethering on maybe an epic turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just for fun before the 00z GFS kicks off the party tonight...This would be a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I know this is pointless, but did anyone notice the uber LR GFS showed another Western block and had m. any snow threats....Pretty interesting stuff. Knock on wood, but we are tethering on maybe an epic turn around. I did see that but given the progression of this winter, I don't think its worth looking past D7. Even the ensembles have been all over the place so far - the mood in here a few days ago made it seem like winter was completely over because the LR pattern was breaking down. Many of the snowier forecasts predicted an AN February for snow to turn the season so there's that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks GOES5, interesting. I wish there was a historical database of storm tracks and attributes like we have with hurricanes. We tend to only look to big local events when analoging etc. 97/98 probably has the most similar pattern overall mtd but none of the strong Ninos since 1950 are a great match. It is certainly possible we just barely missed some events and it sounds that way so perhaps the extra touch of cold is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Thanks GOES5, interesting. I wish there was a historical database of storm tracks and attributes like we have with hurricanes. We tend to only look to big local events when analoging etc. 97/98 probably has the most similar pattern overall mtd but none of the strong Ninos since 1950 are a great match. It is certainly possible we just barely missed some events and it sounds that way so perhaps the extra touch of cold is what we need. Isnt the Weather Channel keeping one now that they are naming winter storms...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Our storm is entering the picture on the 00z GFS @ 66 hours. Compared to the 18z GFS it is a little slower & tad NW....I'd rather it be north which down the line would lead to less digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Our storm is entering the picture on the 00z GFS @ 66 hours. Compared to the 18z GFS it is a little slower & tad NW....I'd rather it be north which down the line would lead to less digging. Given what I can discern about the Euro you'd probably better worry about suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The wave associated with our storm @ 93 hours is a bit weaker compared to the 18z GFS @ same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd say @ 102 hours the wave looks a bit more rounded compared to 18z, meaning less digging, which could mean a less wrapped up system...Looks good to me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice parade of High's up north so far on the GFS. Storm is just starting to cook over the ArklaTex area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd say @ 102 hours the wave looks a bit more rounded compared to 18z, meaning less digging, which could mean a less wrapped up system...Looks good to me so far At 117 this looks pretty good. But...that's an awfully early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you go by the DT 96hr gfs guideline then this run is a definite improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Trough is a bit more open @ 117 hours, HP is building in nice. Some minor 500mb disturbances scooting across the N branch could help reinforce the cold air. Very classic look @ 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If you go by the DT 96hr gfs guideline then this run is a definite improvement Not amplified enough is my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The low is def farther E compared to 18z which is a response to the less wrapped up 500mb low, this run is gonna be a doozy for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not amplified enough is my concern. As an overall theme maybe, but on the 00z GFS run that WONT be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 132 Thumpity Thump Thump, continues thru 135 North of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 As an overall theme maybe, but on the 00z GFS run that WONT be a concern. Don't listen to negative Nancy, lol. It looks fine so far. Too amp'd my be a worry if anything. It's starting to hit the High and transfer at 129.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snowing heavily in your region @ 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Look @ the isobars @ 135, it is beginning to transfer. What is special about this 500mb look is there is a lot of energy still rounding the base of the trough. Once it catches up it absolutely explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 132 Thumpity Thump Thump, continues thru 135 North of DC. Sorry dude. Pac jet and nino and stuff. Ain't happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We're getting the business at 135, but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huge thump for parts of N VA...I actually think the models are really hinting @ that being a big time possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 138 is nice..but oh too close...but its ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY EIGHT HOURS away...no point in quibbling about that. We got a storm still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks like the DC area straddles the rain/snow line again, but obviously that's a very fine detail to worry over this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Where do I sign? Much faster coming in this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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