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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore?  I thought that was corrected?

We can use whatever keeps us alive.

 

But I've heard it has been corrected. Wave doesn't really get stuck in the SW anyway. Just digs too deep.

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Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore?  I thought that was corrected?

 

I'm not sure it's really that. It seems the euro at medium to long range likes to dig things deeper than reality. Not always the case but the second I saw the base of the vort touch baja it definitely fits what we've seen in the past. I'm not sure it's exactly holding things back as much as digging them deeper so it simply takes longer to move along. 

 

The question is do we really believe that the vort digs to baja? I sure don't. 

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Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore? I thought that was corrected?

I have no idea if it still has that bias but I find the euro idea of cutting it off and just sitting over Texas for days to be unlikely compared to the more progressive idea of the gfs and ggem. I didn't see a lot of support fur that from the eps either.
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Half our problem has been the fast flow and too many shortwaves. So now a storm will become a cutoff in the middle of the country? Maybe I guess...but I think a faster progression makes more sense in general. That doesn't mean it won't cut, but this euro evolution is weird.

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it's squashed but even with the delay if it came up temps would work as long as the low stayed under us. Surface temps are dear freezing and yea mid levels are around 33-34 but with any evaporation all cooling the column would get under 32 plus euro at range tends to be a little warm. I'm not upset by this run if anything encouraged by the trend not to cut.
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it's squashed but even with the delay if it came up temps would work as long as the low stayed under us. Surface temps are dear freezing and yea mid levels are around 33-34 but with any evaporation all cooling the column would get under 32 plus euro at range tends to be a little warm. I'm not upset by this run if anything encouraged by the trend not to cut.

yeah, I noticed on the 850 temps off the Instantwx map that an area of below freezing was showing up in central/western VA

it looks more like one of those late season  cutoff bombs you see in March

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016011412&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=240

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Almost to prove the point the last frame the low jumps north and before precip even gets there the column cools to below 0 in central va. This might even come up post 240 but hard to tell. Either way this wasn't a bad run to me. A step closer to me.
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Look @ the 500mb field @ 138 hours. There are 2 pieces of energy in the Southwest. One is S California, the other around the 4 corners. If the shortwave 'focused' on the energy near the 4 corners it would have probably been a good solution for us as it would have swept East across the CONUS while we have cold air in place. Instead it focuses on the S Cali energy, which is at the back side of the trough & digs all the way into Mexico lol.....

 

So basically what I'm saying is that if the energy started to head East @ 138-144 hours it would have been a GFS like solution. Instead it just kept digging. 

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How supported was the OP's solution w/ the slow dig within the individ members?

dunno no 500mb for members that I know of. two clusters early on the low in N Mex vs NM. but after mainly favor the 'good track'.

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