stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore? I thought that was corrected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore? I thought that was corrected? We can use whatever keeps us alive. But I've heard it has been corrected. Wave doesn't really get stuck in the SW anyway. Just digs too deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore? I thought that was corrected? I'm not sure it's really that. It seems the euro at medium to long range likes to dig things deeper than reality. Not always the case but the second I saw the base of the vort touch baja it definitely fits what we've seen in the past. I'm not sure it's exactly holding things back as much as digging them deeper so it simply takes longer to move along. The question is do we really believe that the vort digs to baja? I sure don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it looks to cut at 192, but maybe you guys who are further along can say otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can we really use the ol' holding energy in the SW too long bias anymore? I thought that was corrected?I have no idea if it still has that bias but I find the euro idea of cutting it off and just sitting over Texas for days to be unlikely compared to the more progressive idea of the gfs and ggem. I didn't see a lot of support fur that from the eps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it looks to cut at 192, but maybe you guys who are further along can say otherwise looks like it's just getting squashed under a big 500 ridge following along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 that's the sorriest looking 50/50 type Low I've ever seen on the 192 hrs. map lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016011412&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=409 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 meh, Low off the coast of CA is killing our chances by pumping that ridge incredibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it looks to cut at 192, but maybe you guys who are further along can say otherwise Quite the opposite. A closed 570dm blocking ridge holds it in place until march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'd like to not believe it at all but that's a supernino progression with the giant 500mb ridge. That said, it seems a bit off compared to the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Quite the opposite. A closed 570dm blocking ridge holds it in place until march. eurovort.JPG Yeah, this is likely to happen. A s/w digging to Cartagena and a super block in place over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Quite the opposite. A closed 570dm blocking ridge holds it in place until march. eurovort.JPG we haven't seen anything close to that this winter I don't buy that solution, not to say, however, we won't get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Can anyone tell me what kind of precip field is associated with this? I dont want to see isobars. They are worthless unless you know what you are looking at. Dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yeah, this is likely to happen. A s/w digging to Cartagena and a super block in place over Chicago. A "light" version of that entire progression would destroy us. I'll go with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Half our problem has been the fast flow and too many shortwaves. So now a storm will become a cutoff in the middle of the country? Maybe I guess...but I think a faster progression makes more sense in general. That doesn't mean it won't cut, but this euro evolution is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 finally.....it was waiting for all the cold air to leave the playing field lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016011412&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm not sure we need to discuss the euro much more until the ens come out. For those who are interested, here's the 12 GEFS' range of ideas. Looks good to me for 8+ day leads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 finally.....it was waiting for all the cold air to leave the playing field lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016011412&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=313 it's squashed but even with the delay if it came up temps would work as long as the low stayed under us. Surface temps are dear freezing and yea mid levels are around 33-34 but with any evaporation all cooling the column would get under 32 plus euro at range tends to be a little warm. I'm not upset by this run if anything encouraged by the trend not to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 it's squashed but even with the delay if it came up temps would work as long as the low stayed under us. Surface temps are dear freezing and yea mid levels are around 33-34 but with any evaporation all cooling the column would get under 32 plus euro at range tends to be a little warm. I'm not upset by this run if anything encouraged by the trend not to cut. yeah, I noticed on the 850 temps off the Instantwx map that an area of below freezing was showing up in central/western VA it looks more like one of those late season cutoff bombs you see in March http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016011412®ion=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 finally.....it was waiting for all the cold air to leave the playing field lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2016011412&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=313 Almost to prove the point the last frame the low jumps north and before precip even gets there the column cools to below 0 in central va. This might even come up post 240 but hard to tell. Either way this wasn't a bad run to me. A step closer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Look @ the 500mb field @ 138 hours. There are 2 pieces of energy in the Southwest. One is S California, the other around the 4 corners. If the shortwave 'focused' on the energy near the 4 corners it would have probably been a good solution for us as it would have swept East across the CONUS while we have cold air in place. Instead it focuses on the S Cali energy, which is at the back side of the trough & digs all the way into Mexico lol..... So basically what I'm saying is that if the energy started to head East @ 138-144 hours it would have been a GFS like solution. Instead it just kept digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 you know its a bad winter when its my first time posting the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro ens is south of last night but a decent look. quicker than op. snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro ens is south of last night but a decent look. quicker than op. snow for us. How supported was the OP's solution w/ the slow dig within the individ members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 euro ens is south of last night but a decent look. quicker than op. snow for us. Yea, looks nice. Running the members the good tracks hit us good and the west tracks give us snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not too shabby for inside of d10. hr216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 How supported was the OP's solution w/ the slow dig within the individ members? dunno no 500mb for members that I know of. two clusters early on the low in N Mex vs NM. but after mainly favor the 'good track'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 some really big storms in the members.. mostly fairly cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not too shabby for inside of d10. hr216 eps326.JPG We've been here before with this. Not being negative, just realistic. We really need to get something in the 0-120 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 We've been here before with this. Not being negative, just realistic. We really need to get something in the 0-120 hour time frame. you know you want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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