stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol at fighting over specific details like exact rain snow line on hour 156 of an 18z gfs run. It's crazy. It happens every single time. One hundred and fifty six. HOURS. ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's crazy. It happens every single time. One hundred and fifty six. HOURS. ****! But I get 14" of snow on that run! DONT TAKE IT FROM ME MAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's crazy. It happens every single time. One hundred and fifty six. HOURS. ****! You will get the same at 0z...lol Everyone should be happy there is a storm and wait for trends... Details within 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 But I get 14" of snow on that run! DONT TAKE IT FROM ME MAN You heard DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS Fantasy Land has the Super Nino Frankenstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's crazy. It happens every single time. One hundred and fifty six. HOURS. ****!Yea it's even worse right now because some are getting really desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yea it's even worse right now because some are getting really desperate. Yeah, I am heading back to the other thread...Ravens94 has me half convinced I am getting a moderate snowstorm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, I am heading back to the other thread...Ravens94 has me half convinced I am getting a moderate snowstorm tomorrow I don't mind him at all, I'm with phineas on less censoring, but it's funny at times. He is relentless if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just catching up to see how things are going with my favorite weather peeps. So next week is the #AntiPDIIIStorm? I like where it's going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol at fighting over specific details like exact rain snow line on hour 156 of an 18z gfs run.Storm will probably be gone in six hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Amped doesn't know where Harrisonburg is Yeah it's pretty to look at but pretty much fantasy. I think the fact that so many models have a storm makes this the best shot we've had. They are busting a Massanutten there looking at this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Storm will probably be gone in six hours anyway.Maybe but to me the whole thing is silly. I guess I'm getting old but it wasn't that long ago to me when most of the models only went out to 144. And I remember at psu watching the avn nogaps and ggem and knowing the 144 was total wag stuff. Yea the models have improved since but come on looking at 156 and worrying about 20 miles here or there on the thermal boundary. We need something to get into realistic tracking range like 72 hours so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 They are busting a Massanutten there looking at this run.LolEra: do they still refer to it as massofnothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Storm will probably be gone in six hours anyway. this is the most consistent threat we've had in fantasy land...puhleez keep your on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's a textbook Blue Ridge/ I-81 jackpot on the 18Z GFS. Beautiful transfer in a classic position. I am saving the images even though reality next Friday will probably be way different than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lol Era: do they still refer to it as massofnothing? Not sure, but my kids love it every time we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z GEFS MSLP track is good as it transfers the coastal off the GA coast and heads NE to just off OBX. Looking at the individual plots, there's some really amped up members in there tracking a sub 990 low inland over coastal VA and a handful that track the primary too far north for our latitude - those solutions are the worst for us in terms of precip type. Another couple either take it OTS or don't even have a LP. Mean snowfall ticked down a bit to 2.5" in DC for this storm with 3 giving DC 6"+ or more and another 7 that give DC at least 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Only 24 hrs. to go.... until we are within 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not much support for the gfs solution on the gfs ensembles. What does it mean? Hell if I know. I should say...in the 144-168 window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 More south? Or less amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Today's 12z Euro-Parallel is out on WxBell. Low off the SC coast heads NE off OBX, then NE from there. Verbatim 2" Baltimore, 3-4" for DC, 6" Fredericksburg, 10" Richmond. Max stripe SW VA to Delmarva. Temps in the upper 20s. That's three OP Parallel runs in a row with DC getting a snowstorm...encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Im beginning to learn that this is euros range. Anything else should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I tried to respond rationally. Agree Bob!! We are still 7 days out the best thing is that you have a strong storm signal! Details like exact timing, rain vs snow line, where is the 540 line when? Where is the 850 line when? Best case scenario you get a good idea by Wednesday 0z even then wiggle will happen! Certainly though this appears to be our best shot for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 But I get 14" of snow on that run! DONT TAKE IT FROM ME MAN Looks like Media Delaware County pa picks up a solid 7" but still some back and forth snow to rain to snow... those details even remotely worrying about from one 18z gfs run is foolishness though at least there is a signal for snow and an attempt at a cold high pressure to the north this time so I am interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Im beginning to learn that this is euros range. Anything else should be taken with a grain of salt. We're really outside the range of all of the op models. At this range, I'd estimate that the Euro is roughly 12 hours "ahead" of the GFS. So the Euro at 168 hours is about as good as the GFS at 156, which is not very good. The best thing to do at this range is to look at the ensembles, and then throw in the op runs as if they're ensemble members with extra weight. That's why it's particulary encouraging that this threat has support from multiple ensembles and op runs. As others have said, at this range it's the best look we've seen all season. But everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I've heard interior events referenced but haven't really looked into it. Definitely deeper cold air around this go, but 97-98 has risen from the ashes a bit lately. It had a stronger overall subtropical jet but Jan 2016 might be second of the recent powerhouses at least thru first two weeks per ESRL comparisons. Plus in some ways 2016s seems more expansive if not as potent in peak regions. Have to say a coastal rainer like last night enhances the thoughts heh. The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php The February one was Cincinnati and Louisvilles' all-time single largest snowstorm- 22.4" in Louisville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 At this stage I am more worried about the cut off ULL that just spins itself in the SE more than I am a cutter. Even with a cutter parts of VA would still do good because you guys will benefit from CAD. If we can time it just PERFECTLY where it digs deep, stays neutral based, and bombs East lf us, the potential is off the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php I disagree, great post...That first one looks really similar IMO except we def have colder air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The February one was Cincinnati and Louisvilles' all-time single largest snowstorm- 22.4" in Louisville! I disagree, great post...That first one looks really similar IMO except we def have colder air to work with Found another on 2/24. I must have given up on the winter by that point as I don't remember it at all. Again, retreating air mass that was marginal to begin with (pocket of -5C over the Lakes). The maps show what looks like a deform band with sub 0 850s over/east of DC as the low pulled away...maybe that's responsible for the 0.7 IAD recorded that month? I don't have the daily snowfall data to check. As bad as this winter has been we should be much better with cold air this week than we ever were in 98. The -5C line was parked up near Hudson's bay most of February that year. Agree that the upcoming event looks like 1/27 in terms of upper level trough evolution. Will be interesting to see if the colder air/slightly better HP placement makes a meaningful difference in the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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