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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Storm will probably be gone in six hours anyway.

Maybe but to me the whole thing is silly. I guess I'm getting old but it wasn't that long ago to me when most of the models only went out to 144. And I remember at psu watching the avn nogaps and ggem and knowing the 144 was total wag stuff. Yea the models have improved since but come on looking at 156 and worrying about 20 miles here or there on the thermal boundary. We need something to get into realistic tracking range like 72 hours so bad.
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18z GEFS MSLP track is good as it transfers the coastal off the GA coast and heads NE to just off OBX.  Looking at the individual plots, there's some really amped up members in there tracking a sub 990 low inland over coastal VA and a handful that track the primary too far north for our latitude - those solutions are the worst for us in terms of precip type.  Another couple either take it OTS or don't even have a LP.

 

Mean snowfall ticked down a bit to 2.5" in DC for this storm with 3 giving DC 6"+ or more and another 7 that give DC at least 2".  

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Today's 12z Euro-Parallel is out on WxBell.  Low off the SC coast heads NE off OBX, then NE from there.  Verbatim 2" Baltimore, 3-4" for DC, 6" Fredericksburg, 10" Richmond.  Max stripe SW VA to Delmarva.  Temps in the upper 20s.  

 

That's three OP Parallel runs in a row with DC getting a snowstorm...encouraging.  

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I tried to respond rationally.

Agree Bob!!  We are still 7 days out the best thing is that you have a strong storm signal!  Details like exact timing, rain vs snow line, where is the 540 line when?  Where is the 850 line when?  Best case scenario you get a good idea by Wednesday 0z even then wiggle will happen!

 

Certainly though this appears to be our best shot for the time being.

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But I get 14" of snow on that run! DONT TAKE IT FROM ME MAN

Looks like Media Delaware County pa picks up a solid 7" but still some back and forth snow to rain to snow... those details even remotely worrying about from one 18z gfs run is foolishness though at least there is a signal for snow and an attempt at a cold high pressure to the north this time so I am interested.

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Im beginning to learn that this is euros range. Anything else should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

We're really outside the range of all of the op models.  At this range, I'd estimate that the Euro is roughly 12 hours "ahead" of the GFS.  So the Euro at 168 hours is about as good as the GFS at 156, which is not very good.  The best thing to do at this range is to look at the ensembles, and then throw in the op runs as if they're ensemble members with extra weight.  That's why it's particulary encouraging that this threat has support from multiple ensembles and op runs.  As others have said, at this range it's the best look we've seen all season.  But everything should be taken with a grain of salt.

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I've heard interior events referenced but haven't really looked into it. Definitely deeper cold air around this go, but 97-98 has risen from the ashes a bit lately. It had a stronger overall subtropical jet but Jan 2016 might be second of the recent powerhouses at least thru first two weeks per ESRL comparisons. Plus in some ways 2016s seems more expansive if not as potent in peak regions.

Have to say a coastal rainer like last night enhances the thoughts heh.

The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php

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The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php

The February one was Cincinnati and Louisvilles' all-time single largest snowstorm- 22.4" in Louisville! 

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At this stage I am more worried about the cut off ULL that just spins itself in the SE more than I am a cutter. Even with a cutter parts of VA would still do good because you guys will benefit from CAD. If we can time it just PERFECTLY where it digs deep, stays neutral based, and bombs East lf us, the potential is off the charts

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The 2 storms that I most vividly remember were the last week of Jan and what seemed like a carbon copy exactly a week later. As I recall the NWS was bullish for snow on at least one of these from the 2 day timeframe, but living in western fairfax at the time I don't recall seeing a flake...just 35 and rain. Looked these up on the psu NARR site and you can see why they didn't work out. First storm came into a retreating high off New England so low level flow was easterly. Antecedent cold air mass wasn't that great to begin with either as -5C at 850 was up near the Canadian border. The second system had much better HP placement (over the lakes) but still not that cold of an airmass and it never really was entrenched over the area before the storm arrived. Meanwhile the low was really a pure southern stream bowling ball that developed in the Gulf and headed almost straight north, stacked up to 500mb so lots of onshore flow at all levels. I'm not sure either is a really good analog for what is currently being shown although there are some similarities.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0128.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0204.php

 

I disagree, great post...That first one looks really similar IMO except we def have colder air to work with 

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The February one was Cincinnati and Louisvilles' all-time single largest snowstorm- 22.4" in Louisville! 

 

I disagree, great post...That first one looks really similar IMO except we def have colder air to work with 

Found another on 2/24. I must have given up on the winter by that point as I don't remember it at all. Again, retreating air mass that was marginal to begin with (pocket of -5C over the Lakes). The maps show what looks like a deform band with sub 0 850s over/east of DC as the low pulled away...maybe that's responsible for the 0.7 IAD recorded that month? I don't have the daily snowfall data to check. As bad as this winter has been we should be much better with cold air this week than we ever were in 98. The -5C line was parked up near Hudson's bay most of February that year.

 

Agree that the upcoming event looks like 1/27 in terms of upper level trough evolution. Will be interesting to see if the colder air/slightly better HP placement makes a meaningful difference in the outcome.

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