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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Obviously, IMBY, but let's hope that's not right. East of 95 gets nothing. I think we'd all prefer a good pasting.

SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98?
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Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass.

We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case

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Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass.

We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case

If the air mass was better the warm air advection would cause frontogenesis... Boom

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Montgomery County, MD was under a WSWatch for one of them (the Late Jan one I think). Obviously it didn't verify.

I've heard interior events referenced but haven't really looked into it. Definitely deeper cold air around this go, but 97-98 has risen from the ashes a bit lately. It had a stronger overall subtropical jet but Jan 2016 might be second of the recent powerhouses at least thru first two weeks per ESRL comparisons. Plus in some ways 2016s seems more expansive if not as potent in peak regions.

Have to say a coastal rainer like last night enhances the thoughts heh.

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