Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Troff goes negative too early, there's no 50/50 low, however some of us get saved by the kicker in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This run is lolworthy.... 162 back to snow Notice that the -10 850 line is all the way north of the Canadian border. The Pacific is really gonna f#$% us over big time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Notice that the -10 850 line is all the way north of the Canadian border. The Pacific is really gonna f#$% us over big time! So? 162 is snow in DC... better than nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Congrats Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Obviously, IMBY, but let's hope that's not right. East of 95 gets nothing. I think we'd all prefer a good pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Awesome run IMO. As long as it's not showing a cutter or fish storm at this range I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Obviously, IMBY, but let's hope that's not right. East of 95 gets nothing. I think we'd all prefer a good pasting.SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Congrats Winchester Harrisburg wins this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It is still showing something - as long as that continues at this point, whatever... still dumps snow in DC. Get this under 96-120 hours and then we can start freaking out about specific details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98? Not even that far back. 2013. Such as it is when you live east of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm starting to think peedee3 thinks it isn't going to snow based on a LR gfs op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hr 162 is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not happening this run fellows... Stop posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 SV maps often conservative but maybe usually more right than others too. Wasn't there some events like that in 97-98? Montgomery County, MD was under a WSWatch for one of them (the Late Jan one I think). Obviously it didn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Normal people : "cool - the storm is still there!" PDIII- "all is loss - it's never gonna snow"! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 PDIII needs his own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not happening this run fellows... LOL....then it must not have happened at 12z either because when I compared the gfs surface from the last two runs at the same time frame I thought they were freakishly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm starting to think peedee3 thinks it isn't going to snow based on a LR gfs op run. Not meteoralogically possible is the phrase I think he likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Temperature gradient is the key. So simple but often overlooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Call me when the storm is there on tomorrow's night 0z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 So close to getting the jackpot on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass. We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 Congrats Winchester Amped doesn't know where Harrisonburg is Yeah it's pretty to look at but pretty much fantasy. I think the fact that so many models have a storm makes this the best shot we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Fair enough pd3. But the gfs was bad because the ull and slp track were too far north. The temp issues stem from warm air advecting in from low circulation and not a retreating air mass. We walk the line at 850 and the surface with like 80% of our storms. The airmass is actually better than most we deal with. Just need to keep things under us. It's pretty simple in this case If the air mass was better the warm air advection would cause frontogenesis... Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If the air mass was better the warm air advection would cause frontogenesis... Boom STOP POSTING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Montgomery County, MD was under a WSWatch for one of them (the Late Jan one I think). Obviously it didn't verify.I've heard interior events referenced but haven't really looked into it. Definitely deeper cold air around this go, but 97-98 has risen from the ashes a bit lately. It had a stronger overall subtropical jet but Jan 2016 might be second of the recent powerhouses at least thru first two weeks per ESRL comparisons. Plus in some ways 2016s seems more expansive if not as potent in peak regions. Have to say a coastal rainer like last night enhances the thoughts heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Congrats Winchester PWC...I mean every color of the rainbow...6-17 inches SE to NW. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol at fighting over specific details like exact rain snow line on hour 156 of an 18z gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 STOP POSTING I tried to respond rationally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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