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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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Most GEFS and GEPS members were east of the op and control run (the control runs had similar tracks to the ops). 

 

SnzPhCY.gif

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick east in the next GFS and GGEM op runs.  GEPS members have been more bullish than GEFS for the last day or so, with both more snow solutions and more big hits.  But both still have a lot of members that give DC no significant snow next weekend.

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just took a look at 12z para gfs, seems to also give a good hit to mid Atlantic region

 

Yep, temps are borderline for part of it (more so than 6z) but this far out, who knows. Low is still plenty south... exits south of NC/VA boarder. Good thump before temps get iffy.

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  this supports  the      12Z   OP   ECMWF  and the  12z  euro esp

 

Most GEFS and GEPS members were east of the op and control run (the control runs had similar tracks to the ops). 

 

SnzPhCY.gif

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick east in the next GFS and GGEM op runs.  GEPS members have been more bullish than GEFS for the last day or so, with both more snow solutions and more big hits.  But both still have a lot of members that give DC no significant snow next weekend.

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 given the  GFS    track record  over the past weeks  months year with  east coast  winter storms    it is imperative that you do not marry the  GFS   - especially the  OP  RUNS   no matter   how great or crappy they are  for  your location

   IMO they are   worthless pass  72/ 84 hrs  

lot of folks    pm me   or  email     "DT  you see 12z GFS or 6z or 18z   etc  ? "  

and My answer is alwasy the same 

 
I dont give  a ****  what the  GFS   says  when it comes to  east coast winter storms  past   84 hrs 

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 given the  GFS    track record  over the past weeks  months year with  east coast  winter storms    it is imperative that you do not marry the  GFS   - especially the  OP  RUNS   no matter   how great or crappy they are  for  your location

   IMO they are   worthless pass  72/ 84 hrs  

lot of folks    pm me   or  email     "DT  you see 12z GFS or 6z or 18z   etc  ? "  

and My answer is alwasy the same 

 

I dont give  a ****  what the  GFS   says  when it comes to  east coast winter storms  past   84 hrs 

If there's one thing we know about you it's that you are a serial Euro hugger. :wub:

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The question that I would ask is what are the means doing that the Euro is not or vice versa. I get your point of course but curious for arguments sake.

mean seems to have two main camps.. one that's weaker/ more progressive and one that blows up the storm. a little less than half give the dc/balt region or NW a decent event though... so it's a good chunk. but I'm not sure the mean itself is indicative of a whole lot of certainty.

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Odd that LWX would mention it this far out in their HWO:

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
436 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-170945-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
436 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE THREAT
MATERIALIZES...IT MAY CAUSE DISRUPTION TO TRAVEL
.
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Just a smidge warm, but who cares? The storm is there for right now... thats all that matters

It was like 53 degrees out this morning after a coastal in mid January. There is no way its snowing with the 0 degree 850 line west of dc. That's a massive rain storm.

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