cae Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Most GEFS and GEPS members were east of the op and control run (the control runs had similar tracks to the ops). I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick east in the next GFS and GGEM op runs. GEPS members have been more bullish than GEFS for the last day or so, with both more snow solutions and more big hits. But both still have a lot of members that give DC no significant snow next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well that was an interesting blip. Anyone else get an error and temporarily bumped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 just took a look at 12z para gfs, seems to also give a good hit to mid Atlantic region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 just took a look at 12z para gfs, seems to also give a good hit to mid Atlantic region Yep, temps are borderline for part of it (more so than 6z) but this far out, who knows. Low is still plenty south... exits south of NC/VA boarder. Good thump before temps get iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 this supports the 12Z OP ECMWF and the 12z euro esp Most GEFS and GEPS members were east of the op and control run (the control runs had similar tracks to the ops). I wouldn't be surprised to see this tick east in the next GFS and GGEM op runs. GEPS members have been more bullish than GEFS for the last day or so, with both more snow solutions and more big hits. But both still have a lot of members that give DC no significant snow next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 WOOF strikingly similar set up to FEB 11-12 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 LOL...all in good fun of course!! Yeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 given the GFS track record over the past weeks months year with east coast winter storms it is imperative that you do not marry the GFS - especially the OP RUNS no matter how great or crappy they are for your location IMO they are worthless pass 72/ 84 hrs lot of folks pm me or email "DT you see 12z GFS or 6z or 18z etc ? " and My answer is alwasy the same I dont give a **** what the GFS says when it comes to east coast winter storms past 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 WOODY Here's what I got. I think you were looking at yesterday's 12z run. That is what your link sent me too. Here is todays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ITS LAUGHABLE how the GEFS does this GEFS mean looks a lot like the 12z Euro through Day 6-7, much more so than the GFS op. Then GEFS somehow pulls it up the coast while the Euro sends it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 given the GFS track record over the past weeks months year with east coast winter storms it is imperative that you do not marry the GFS - especially the OP RUNS no matter how great or crappy they are for your location IMO they are worthless pass 72/ 84 hrs lot of folks pm me or email "DT you see 12z GFS or 6z or 18z etc ? " and My answer is alwasy the same I dont give a **** what the GFS says when it comes to east coast winter storms past 84 hrs If there's one thing we know about you it's that you are a serial Euro hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 UKMET and Euro on the same page = money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ITS LAUGHABLE how the GEFS does this The question that I would ask is what are the means doing that the Euro is not or vice versa. I get your point of course but curious for arguments sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The question that I would ask is what are the means doing that the Euro is not or vice versa. I get your point of course but curious for arguments sake. mean seems to have two main camps.. one that's weaker/ more progressive and one that blows up the storm. a little less than half give the dc/balt region or NW a decent event though... so it's a good chunk. but I'm not sure the mean itself is indicative of a whole lot of certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 yeah well I like getting the forecast right once we get within 84 hrs I have no issues with the GFS If there's one thing we know about you it's that you are a serial Euro hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 yeah well I like getting the forecast right once we get within 84 hrs I have no issues with the GFS Fair point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Odd that LWX would mention it this far out in their HWO: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC436 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-170945-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-436 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAYGALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS LATESUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.THERE IS A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE THREATMATERIALIZES...IT MAY CAUSE DISRUPTION TO TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z pretty similar to 12z through 114. The low is a tad farther south and 2 mb stronger in oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Hold.. The 18z gfs ineptitude is a myth right? Is it not the same exact software... Just initiated with data collected at 18z.... Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 18z pretty similar to 12z through 114. The low is a tad farther south and 2 mb stronger in oklahoma. 144 coastal transfer slightly quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not happening this run fellows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not happening this run fellows... Just a smidge warm, but who cares? The storm is there for right now... thats all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 This run is lolworthy.... 162 back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a smidge warm, but who cares? The storm is there for right now... thats all that matters It was like 53 degrees out this morning after a coastal in mid January. There is no way its snowing with the 0 degree 850 line west of dc. That's a massive rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just a smidge warm, but who cares? The storm is there for right now... thats all that matters Think we need the systems to exit tomorrow before the models can really key in on next week. So yea as long there is something to track that's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It was like 53 degrees out this morning after a coastal in mid January. There is no way its snowing with the 0 degree 850 line west of dc. That's a massive rain storm. The setup from yesterday's coastal and next weekend are completely different so you can't compare the airmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It was like 53 degrees out this morning after a coastal in mid January. There is no way its snowing with the 0 degree 850 line west of dc. That's a massive rain storm. Until it flips to a massive snowstorm for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 That cutoff on the snowfall map though, a foot or so in Leesburg an inch for DC/East on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I-81 corridor ftw this run... true, its the 18z GooFuS... but I think we would take this run and deal with it -- most of us, that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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