Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CMC on tropical tidbits looks good CMC is a crushing event. Long duration too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 You are a very strange person your not the first to tell me that. btw..i keep seeing a threat pop up on Jan 26 and 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm not so sure yet brother...I'm in a pretty rural area...gonna be interesting to compare with your stats...plus I'm actually further west than you...near Fauquier And I've already gauged the Bristow runs warmer than here due to UHI. True, but you do have a hint of trolltacity tho :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 your not the first to tell me that. btw..i keep seeing a threat pop up on Jan 26 and 27I hope you're playing guitar those days. CMC is another op with a snowstorm next week. Euro should end the streak in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 your not the first to tell me that. btw..i keep seeing a threat pop up on Jan 26 and 27 Climbing the mountaintop......for another 20 minutes. And then...back in the valley. The doctor will see to that real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 im partially rooting against the storm. I have a guitar gig saturday and sunday that i really dont want to miss LOL...sure, we all buy that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I hope you're playing guitar those days. CMC is another op with a snowstorm next week. Euro should end the streak in 45 minutes. I figure in about 20 minutes we can start to see the unraveling. But it's pretty hopeful that all the major LR models at least have some sort of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Climbing the mountaintop......for another 20 minutes. And then...back in the valley. The doctor will see to that real quick. the doctor has actually give us 0-10 inches of modeled snow this year from the OP. Thats ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CMC is a crushing event. Long duration too Haven't heard the term crushing this year. One of the best terms unless it's not our region. Long duration seems to be a hallmark of this potential event so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Haven't heard the term crushing this year. One of the best terms unless it's not our region. Long duration seems to be a hallmark of this potential event so far.Those of us around and east of I95 usually don't do well with those unless we get strong HP to our north and/or textbook perfect slp placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not sure that's true. Yesterday it kinda parked longer? Well it's not doing it as soon or as south as it was in some runs. But it closes off a lot sooner than runs a few days ago that were decent. It's slowed down since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 MSLP panels look really good irt hp in SE Canada. Best look all year by a mile and we're talking d5-7 now for that feature. If slp doesn't go north of our latitude to the west it seems increasingly likely we get snow out of this even if a mixed event. I'm pretty happy with the 12z Gefs. Seems focused on lp tracking up from the SE and not as far north as the gfs op. Thanks. Sounds good to me. It didn't look like a perfect setup but still pretty good. We can do pretty decent with those overrunning setups or lows developing over Tennessee. Not always legendary snowfalls but good for a moderate event which would probably work for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro 120 looks close, maybe a tad too far south. Definitely less amped and - tilted than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Lock up the CMC. If that happens the rest of the winter can be 75 degrees and I will not care. Absolutely awesome run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro 120 looks close, maybe a tad too far south. Definitely less amped and - tilted than the GFSCold enough leading into it.http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Euro looks great at h5 @120. Regardless of the run its not an easy west track look and more progressive than the gfs. I'm not a fan of a bowling ball rolling due east at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Day 6 850's http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just thought I'd post the cmc from tropical tidbits so everyone knows what we're talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Day 6 500mb http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Oh man..Euro at 144 looks pretty good. 1008 Millibar low developing right off of Mobile, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Silly at this point, I suppose, but that's a brutal cutoff on the Canadian. 2 feet for Mappy and a dusting for Wes. Euro has a weaker s/w relative to the GFS and it looks more progressive. This coming from the model that turned it into a glacially-moving bowling ball 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Day 6 slp http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Oh man..Euro at 144 looks pretty good. 1008 Millibar low developing right off of Mobile, AL Looks similar to the 0z para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 OTS at 168 off of GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 OTS at 168 off of GA http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h168&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, a little suppressed but not bad. Decent hit my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h168&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Precip makes it to MD/PA line, 0.1" QPF DC all snow. SLP placement is similar to last run, but precip is further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 OTS at 168 off of GA Well considering it showed the Sunday storm in Cuba couple days ago, we shouldn't really be worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah, a little suppressed but not bad. Decent hit my area.. Great hit for the Carolinas, I can't tell if precip makes it into VA cause I don't have pay maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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