psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z GFS has joined the EURO camp with that stupid ULL that gets cut off from the rest of the flow.I'm glad it has a storm. So at 6 days it's temp profile is off. That said if that happens like that, classic track and still a driving rain storm then it's an epic fail. It's not like there is a cutter ruining the mid levels it's just all the cold vacates the east 24 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm glad it has a storm. So at 6 days it's temp profile is off. That said if that happens like that, classic track and still a driving rain storm then it's an epic fail. It's not like there is a cutter ruining the mid levels it's just all the cold vacates the east 24 hours before the storm. I agree, problem is the EURO has been showing this for multiple runs now and now the GFS joins it, hard to get excited. We were already trying to thread a needle. In other lulsy news, the 288-300hr GFS goes absolutely HAM over the region with a blizzard Ian can I start a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here's the thing with this late next week foolishness....right now, we should be glad whatever model shows a storm in our vicinity in that time range. I'm kinda encouraged by the 18z GFS knowing that the chances of something getting pinched off like that are slim...but seeing as though we need the wave to be progressive and with out luck, this will be the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here's the thing with this late next week foolishness....right now, we should be glad whatever model shows a storm in our vicinity in that time range. I'm kinda encouraged by the 18z GFS knowing that the chances of something getting pinched off like that are slim...but seeing as though we need the wave to be progressive and with out luck, this will be the first. Yeah, it's crap to see what the 18Z did verbatim, of course, but it's out there in time still. Almost looks like what the Euro did the other day, cutting off like that and "waiting" for the cold air to run away. At least there's a storm, it's not showing some weird sheared out system, which I'll take as sort of positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The storm on the 27th, ugh 12 days out, has a nice look to it as it approaches the MA but even that one doesn't want to go too far up the coastline like a typical coastal or nor'easter. Can't seem to get it right this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Here we sit with a deepening LP soon to be off the VA Capes and we have a southerly breeze and sit at 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The storm on the 27th, ugh 12 days out, has a nice look to it as it approaches the MA but even that one doesn't want to go too far up the coastline like a typical coastal or nor'easter. Can't seem to get it right this year. Almost looks like how next Friday's system looked at 12Z yesterday (if that makes any sense!). Well, active weather at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looking at the 18z GEFS, there's a big spread of scenarios from cutters, Miller As, Miller Bs, and Apps runners. Potential is there to track. Sorry for the multiple images but there's spread amongst the members of the timing of the storm too. I skipped a few panels in between as this gives you the general gist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All I know is we need to have one EURO run give us a snowstorm I feel like its been a while since it has and it has been kicking butt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looking at the 18z GEFS, there's a big spread of scenarios from cutters, Miller As, Miller Bs, and Apps runners. Potential is there to track. Sorry for the multiple images but there's spread amongst the members of the timing of the storm too. I skipped a few panels in between as this gives you the general gist. Thanks for doing that. Everything on the table. We can maybe hope for some front end action. Which I am a fan of...back end action usually leaves you with nothing good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 All I know is we need to have one EURO run give us a snowstorm I feel like its been a while since it has and it has been kicking buttI thought I just read on here how poorly the Euro OP has been performing while the new Euro para has been leading the way in terms of verification scores? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Looking at the 18z GEFS, there's a big spread of scenarios from cutters, Miller As, Miller Bs, and Apps runners. Potential is there to track. Sorry for the multiple images but there's spread amongst the members of the timing of the storm too. I skipped a few panels in between as this gives you the general gist. We need the storm to come under us. Almost all of those panels are way to warm, unfortunately. But as you correctly said, definitely worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ralph I guess my point was that unless I am wrong I don't think the EURO has showed even a fantasy snow event in multiple runs. Even for tonight's current storm it backed off relatively quick in the med/LR and the GFS did hang around for a bit to give us digital snow. The GFS also was showing a snowstorm with Sunday's event like 4-5 days out while the EURO never did. I mean it is possible the EURO hasn't been better when doing a statistical analysis...I'm just going off the digital snow observation vs. reality. If there is some miracle tonight & the EURO shows a snowstorm for the Thurs-Fri event I'd get extremely excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I think we have seen enough this year to say that things are skewed warm and it is likely due to the super nino enhanced pacific jet. Even when we have all the indices in a good phase its a fight just to get a week to end up average temps. That jet is always there ready to flood warm air into the pattern. If things do line up bad, (+NAO+EPO-PNA) for instance we would probably torch again bad. That said we are heading into a period that is our prime snow climo and historically when a nino can produce if it is going to at all. I think our chances of any sustained true cold is pretty low, a day or two here or there maybe but anything more is a lost cause IMO. As for snow, I think our best chances are to get something like feb 87 or march 58, both storms that happened in periods that werent really cold. It was 50 the day before and 70 a day after march 58 and 50s either side of 87. As the jet relaxes later in winter we can hope to get a decent stj system to undercut the ridging and if there is some high pressure north of us at the time we can get a wet snowstorm that way. Something where its 45-50 the day before but just cold enough for snow with a good track. If we can get the ridging to pull back to the NW a little bit that isn't hard to imagine. Need some luck though. Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 @ 111 HRS the 00z GFS looks like it COULD end up decent. The lead wave looks weak, but strong enough to reinforce the cold air, and the 2nd wave looks weaker than 18z (which ended up digging and closing off)....so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 YES, @ 132 HRS the 00z GFS looks much better folks...lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 YES, @ 132 HRS the 00z GFS looks much better folks...lets see Slow down toughy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 One issue with the shortwave is that there is a lot of energy on the back side of the trough which could force it to continue to dig, which could eventually cut it off from the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Slow down toughy haha....feeling nice....We kinda lost that HP that was modeled few days ago...it is still there but not nearly as strong Shortwave is a bit too positively tilted for my liking @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well, once again...vastly different from it's last run. No cut off. Whole new solution coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Precip needs mental therapy this run. It appears to be too scared to cross the 850 threshold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Close call but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Precip needs mental therapy this run. It appears to be too scared to cross the 850 threshold A wholly different solution. I like the fact that something is still on the map I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 A wholly different solution. I like the fact that something is still on the map I guess. It's becoming pretty simple and clear. Get something under us and not cutoff and see what shakes out. The big cold high that gave us wiggle room seems to have become a little lamb after being advertised as a lion. Unfortunately it seems like our chances at the right setup for accum snow remain below 50/50 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS still has a storm in the vicinity, so our hopes of seeing some weenie snow maps this weekend are still alive! Hopefully the Euro starts to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 00z GGEM @ 144 will def not be a cutter. Anyone have it beyond 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 There is a low beginning to form, but the trough is pretty positive, idk if it would end up strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 00z GGEM @ 144 will def not be a cutter. Anyone have it beyond 144? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yeah...OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Very, very ugly pattern on the LR GFS through the end of the run. Guess we're going to have to wait for a NAO return maybe by Mid Feb if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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