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January Med/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr

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New Thread.

 

With threats coming up, the Euro getting ready to run, I thought it was time.

 

Please everyone keep the one-liners, the witty posts, and the banter in the proper place.

 

Good luck.  If this thread doesn't produce a 2" regional snow in the next 10 days, I'm never starting another thread in this subforum.

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Hard to get excited until the EURO actually shows a snowstorm for us.....I don't think we've had the EURO & GFS both show snow on the same run all season, though I may be wrong. 

That's because we haven't seen a real threat inside of 5 days yet. Having them both show snow @ d8-10 isn't much different than one or the other. 

 

I expect the euro op to do what it's done time and time again at medium to long leads. Get a little amp happy and drive the storm west of us. If the trend is further south and better track on average over the next 3 days then we have something real to work with. 

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Hard to get excited until the EURO actually shows a snowstorm for us.....I don't think we've had the EURO & GFS both show snow on the same run all season, though I may be wrong. 

 

when it's 8 or 9 days out i don't even care if it shows a hit, but would be nice to show "potential".

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I'm out to 162 on the MSLP maps... looks okay so far

 

It is taking too long and digging too far S....If we are going to thread the needle with this one we need the energy to move quickly while we have the cold air & HP in place. If it takes too long we lose the entire setup and it goes to $^#

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This run turned to crap IMO...the energy in the Southwest is just doing some crazy stuff digging all the way to Mexico....Anytime we're dealing with energy coming from the 4-corner region on the EURO I always have to question the outcome because the EURO can do some crazy stuff with it. 

 

 

 

I expect the euro op to do what it's done time and time again at medium to long leads. Get a little amp happy and drive the storm west of us. If the trend is further south and better track on average over the next 3 days then we have something real to work with. 

 

 

There's clean hp all across the northern tier though. We're good regardless if that keep up

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That's what I thought...run looks fine to me so far, regardless of the specifics  

 

Yes, our region & Canada are good, but the energy in the Southwest gets all messed up, digging way too far S, it ends up closing itself off from the rest of the flow...if it takes too long we lose the good setup and it ends up to crap....Like the 12z run is going to do....It is okay though because all it takes is for the energy to move faster across the CONUS like the GFS and it is game on

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