WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 New Thread. With threats coming up, the Euro getting ready to run, I thought it was time. Please everyone keep the one-liners, the witty posts, and the banter in the proper place. Good luck. If this thread doesn't produce a 2" regional snow in the next 10 days, I'm never starting another thread in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Total weenie comment of me and I know its the GFS OP past 5 days, but it's nice to see 3 GFS OP runs in a row showing us getting some amount of snow. Hopefully the ensembles and Euro support, too. About 30 minutes to enjoy the euphoria until hopes and dreams are dashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely not much ensemble support for the 1/23 thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm taking this and running with it, at least till the Euro comes in LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely not much ensemble support for the 1/23 thing. What ensembles are you refering to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GGEM is too far NW, but the GGEM always is....still think this is the best shot all winter, but a LOT can go wrong, and I could be totally retracting that belief in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GEFS looks pretty good overall. Big rainy west tracks aren't really there at all. Standard mixed event with NW doing best seems most favored across the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 i thought about it and i think we're kinda due for a hecs if you don't count the last 2 years as a hecs in and of itself. 83, 87, 93, 96, 00, 03, 09, 10, 16? debatable. gambler's fallacy, but whatever. i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Definitely not much ensemble support for the 1/23 thing. GEFS looks pretty good overall. Big rainy west tracks aren't really there at all. Standard mixed event with NW doing best seems most favored across the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hard to get excited until the EURO actually shows a snowstorm for us.....I don't think we've had the EURO & GFS both show snow on the same run all season, though I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hard to get excited until the EURO actually shows a snowstorm for us.....I don't think we've had the EURO & GFS both show snow on the same run all season, though I may be wrong. That's because we haven't seen a real threat inside of 5 days yet. Having them both show snow @ d8-10 isn't much different than one or the other. I expect the euro op to do what it's done time and time again at medium to long leads. Get a little amp happy and drive the storm west of us. If the trend is further south and better track on average over the next 3 days then we have something real to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Any Sunday pity flakes on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 @ 111 hrs on 12z EURO there is a S/W around Montana that could eevntually reinforce the cold air & HP. Kind of like what the GFS did...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The shortwave out in the Pacific that eventually leads to our storm is much weaker too which could help it end up not being a Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There is def going to be a better cold air setup out East, but the Wave around Cali looks much weaker so not sure what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Any Sunday pity flakes on the euro? Yea, it's a dusting in our yards. Nothing in DC or SE. A little in Nova. Mini jack in Damascus with a whopping half inch. ETA: mini .5" jack in Mt Parkton too. Mappy deck pics incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hard to get excited until the EURO actually shows a snowstorm for us.....I don't think we've had the EURO & GFS both show snow on the same run all season, though I may be wrong. when it's 8 or 9 days out i don't even care if it shows a hit, but would be nice to show "potential". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Between 144 & 156 hrs the wave in the SW got pretty strong...Going to be a close call. I think ti will cut, but it doesn't mean we can't get a thump out of it though....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yea, it's a dusting in our yards. Nothing in DC or SE. A little in Nova. Mini jack in Damascus with a whopping half inch. ETA: mini .5" jack in Mt Parkton too. Mappy deck pics incoming sweet, i'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Between 144 & 156 hrs the wave in the SW got pretty strong...Going to be a close call. I think ti will cut, but it doesn't mean we can't get a thump out of it though....we'll see I'm out to 162 on the MSLP maps... looks okay so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This run turned to crap IMO...the energy in the Southwest is just doing some crazy stuff digging all the way to Mexico....Anytime we're dealing with energy coming from the 4-corner region on the EURO I always have to question the outcome because the EURO can do some crazy stuff with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm out to 162 on the MSLP maps... looks okay so far It is taking too long and digging too far S....If we are going to thread the needle with this one we need the energy to move quickly while we have the cold air & HP in place. If it takes too long we lose the entire setup and it goes to $^# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This run turned to crap IMO...the energy in the Southwest is just doing some crazy stuff digging all the way to Mexico....Anytime we're dealing with energy coming from the 4-corner region on the EURO I always have to question the outcome because the EURO can do some crazy stuff with it. I expect the euro op to do what it's done time and time again at medium to long leads. Get a little amp happy and drive the storm west of us. If the trend is further south and better track on average over the next 3 days then we have something real to work with. There's clean hp all across the northern tier though. We're good regardless if that keep up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Basically @ 180 hrs the shortwave is getting cutoff from the rest of the flow, similarly to the 00z run, so this won't end up good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hr 186 sub 1008mb just NW of Houston. Hr 192 sub 1008mb slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There's clean hp all across the northern tier though. We're good regardless if that keep up That's what I thought...run looks fine to me so far, regardless of the specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2016 Author Share Posted January 14, 2016 There's clean hp all across the northern tier though. We're good regardless if that keep up That's always good, especially if it parks in southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Probably will be cutoff/suppressed this run, low isn't moving much . Hr 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro's going to show us a new way to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 That's what I thought...run looks fine to me so far, regardless of the specifics Yes, our region & Canada are good, but the energy in the Southwest gets all messed up, digging way too far S, it ends up closing itself off from the rest of the flow...if it takes too long we lose the good setup and it ends up to crap....Like the 12z run is going to do....It is okay though because all it takes is for the energy to move faster across the CONUS like the GFS and it is game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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