A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't think we can get much more than 0.2 out of this. I hope I'm wrong, but even so the antecedent airmass is quite dry. it's not like we'll be dealing with strong dry easterly flow and the 12z GEFS mean jumped pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LSRs can be a bit tricky, as sometimes even with the higher ratio stuff you get small flake size. Looking at some GFS/NAM soundings they're showing a fairly shallow DGZ per my eyes. Generally around 100mb over northern IL. One thing we have going in favor though will be fairly light winds in the lower 3km, so flake shattering may be kept to a minimum. I think I'll ride more of a 15:1 LSR as opposed to 20:1 for now. Probably splitting hairs at this point, but it's how it looks to me based on the 12z guidance. Hopefully models continue to bump up qpf in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 LSRs can be a bit tricky, as sometimes even with the higher ratio stuff you get small flake size. Looking at some GFS/NAM soundings they're showing a fairly shallow DGZ per my eyes. Generally around 100mb over northern IL. One thing we have going in favor though will be fairly light winds in the lower 3km, so flake shattering may be kept to a minimum. I think I'll ride more of a 15:1 LSR as opposed to 20:1 for now. Probably splitting hairs at this point, but it's how it looks to me based on the 12z guidance. Hopefully models continue to bump up qpf in future runs. Yeah, wouldn't surprise me to see something close to 20 with the flake shattering minimized and offsetting the somewhat small dgz, as you said. Uptick in moisture is encouraging. Should things continue to ramp up a bit, this could be a really nice and picturesque event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z NAM looks to be the weakest of the models with regard to the sfc low strength by 12z Tuesday on the lee side of the Rockies at 1018mb while most guidance is lower with the GFS/Euro at 1012mb. Another nice little bump up with the 15z plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z NAM looks to be the weakest of the models with regard to the sfc low strength by 12z Tuesday on the lee side of the Rockies at 1018mb while most guidance is lower with the GFS/Euro at 1012mb. Another nice little bump up with the 15z plumes 18z will be a tick up in intensity/wave amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would like to see the GGEM come north a bit, considering it is south of most guidance and is typically the one to over-amplify these types of waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would like to see the GGEM come north a bit, considering it is south of most guidance and is typically the one to over-amplify these types of waves. the trend is our friend and the GGEM has been particularly prone to wild r2r swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z NAM. Band kind of peters out a bit in IL. Lot of runs to go yet. Temps look to be in the upper teens for this event. Kuchera ratios look to be a little better than 15:1 in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Nice to see the NAM tick a little better but probably not done if the GFS is to be believed. Growing consensus for 2-3" possibly a bit more around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 would you mind turning on the magnet, geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS came in south of the 12z run and closer to the heart of guidance as it was on the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS came in south of the 12z run and closer to the heart of guidance as it was on the northern edge qpf shield is a bit south...but L track is identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 DVN tossing the wetter 12z GFS for now, and going with a general 1-2" snow north of I-80. 2-4" south of I-80. I tend to agree, although I think 2-3" north of I-80 may be the way to go with qpf in the 0.15-0.20" range there. I'm going with 15:1 LSRs at this point. From DVN.... ...IT/S STILL A BIT EARLY...BUTUTILIZING SEVERAL SNOW PRODUCING METHODS LOOKING AT CURRENTLYPROGGED LIFT/SATURATION/THERMAL PROFILES...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80...1-2 INCHES FROMI80 NORTH TO THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR...AND LESS THAN AN INCH UP TOWARDTHE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. BULK OF THESE SNOW ACCUMS TO OCCUR FROM 00Z-06ZWED...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA MAY HAVE UP TOAN INCH ALREADY BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL TONE DOWN THEWETTER 12Z RUN GFS WHICH HAS AS MUCH AS 4-6 INCHES SOUTH OF I80 AND3-4 INCHES NORTH OF I80 TO THE DBQ AREA BY 12Z WED. EVEN CUTTINGBACK FROM THE GFS TOTALS...A SNOW ADVISORY OR WINTER WX ADVISORY MAYSTILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. PRE-SYSTEM TEMP WARM UP ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 would you mind turning on the magnet, geos? Ok, just flipped it on. Hopefully the 0z runs will yield some positive gains. It'll be nice to see Cyclone get out of his post-November snowstorm 1" or less snowfall streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That is one weird snow pattern map! Looks like waves or something. 12km NAM didn't get any better for N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM is coming in north with the central IL snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS has definitely toned things down compared to the wetter 12z. Had almost 0.25" here on the 12z versus 0.15" on the 00z. Still a nice little 2" event, but really nothing special. Looks like a nice 3-5" swath will line up from northern MO into central IL. Hopefully we can get a snow system with some balls in here during February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 .2 final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm not expecting a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0.4-1.2" last call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is a south central Illinois event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is a south central Illinois event. Or even a southern IL event. Too cold and dry around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Getting big time pixie dust right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Or even a southern IL event. Too cold and dry around here. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's actually snowing at a modest clip now with decent-sized flakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol! GFS says maybe 1.5" for you. Resembling a cold weak el Niño pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Disappointing. First and last call 1.0 inch of sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last call 1.5. Splenda snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey All- I'm sorry to ask this question without contributing anything.. I'm flying into IND from HOU on Thursday evening.. I see that there is a chance of snow... My question: Is IND prepared to handle a bit of snow like my hometown of BOS, or does it shutdown at the first flake? I have courtside seats for the IU basketball game on Saturday, and would hate to get my travel plans messed up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey All- I'm sorry to ask this question without contributing anything.. I'm flying into IND from HOU on Thursday evening.. I see that there is a chance of snow... My question: Is IND prepared to handle a bit of snow like my hometown of BOS, or does it shutdown at the first flake? I have courtside seats for the IU basketball game on Saturday, and would hate to get my travel plans messed up! . You won't have any issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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