Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 99L looks to be a classic east coast track, though. This might actually give us something to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Low pressure is going to consolidate south. Might actually go south of Cuba and limp until it hits the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Brick, this is what you should expect to happen, as per usual: The GFS (0 and 6Z) show nothing to speak of coming close to the US. But the CMC and Euro have hits that move inland through the SE and give Shetley a LOT of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 46 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Low pressure is going to consolidate south. Might actually go south of Cuba and limp until it hits the gulf. How can you be certain? Ya might wanna wait to see what the hurricane hunters have to say once they are finished checking out all of the mid/low level swirls going on today 19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Brick, this is what you should expect to happen, as per usual: The GFS (0 and 6Z) show nothing to speak of coming close to the US. But the CMC and Euro have hits that move inland through the SE and give Shetley a LOT of rain. The portals are flexing their muscles I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 22 hours ago, downeastnc said: Both GFS and CMC seem to have issues with whatever it is in the Bahamas later this week into next week....CMC landfalls a tropical storm into the central Florida east coast. If you're pulling for a SE hurricane hit this upcoming hot pattern may help. If we were looking at a cool trough pattern the storms would either get blocked to the east or too far to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Brick, this is what you should expect to happen, as per usual: The GFS (0 and 6Z) show nothing to speak of coming close to the US. But the CMC and Euro have hits that move inland through the SE and give Shetley a LOT of rain.LOL....well the NAVGEM just came in with a big hit to the keys and entering gulf as a strong cane. Euro/NAVGEM combo is tough to beat ;-)Will see if Euro holds soon though. GFS doesn't have squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: LOL....well the NAVGEM just came in with a big hit to the keys and entering gulf as a strong cane. Euro/NAVGEM combo is tough to beat ;-) Will see if Euro holds soon though. GFS doesn't have squat. Anyone know when recon starts coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: If you're pulling for a SE hurricane hit this upcoming hot pattern may help. If we were looking at a cool trough pattern the storms would either get blocked to the east or too far to the south. The models seem to be having trouble keeping all the potential systems separate....the next week or two will be interesting could be 2-3 systems to track at the same time.....pattern might make forecasting them a living hell though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Euro ain't messing around. Katrina'ish track/strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 948 into Mobile around hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Might have a real hurricane to track for a change. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 948 into Mobile around hour 192 If it still shows that at day 3 or so watch gas prices start to spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 25 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 948 into Mobile around hour 192 931 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 27 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 948 into Mobile around hour 192 This track usually wrecks MBY with flooding and mudslides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Maybe tomorrow the HH will find a strong west wind somewhere in the midst of his mid level spins Waiting for all of these spins to consolidate is worse than watching paint dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 59 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro ain't messing around. Katrina'ish track/strength. Sure isn't, even the NAVGEM is in the Euro camp. (Just further east and weaker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 99L is starting to look too close to giving Lousiana some bad problems with their current situation. I'd like the rains over this way, and for them to be out of harm's way. It looks like today's 12z Euro is weakening the ridge a little bit slower, hence it come in further to our West? Bad maps currently, so can't be sure. Edit - Took a look at the 00z Euro ensemble Cyclone tracks. Very clustered coming up through Florida, into Georgia/SC/coast. Awaiting the 12z charts... interested to see if they shifted West also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 The SE ridge seems to have been hanging on a bit stronger than modeled, lately. Just something to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: The SE ridge seems to have been hanging on a bit stronger than modeled, lately. Just something to note. I agree. The heat has definitely been holding hard when it latches on. That's bad news for Lousiana, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 It's good to see the worst case scenarios now, they are unlikely to happen tho based on the pattern features I see on some of the other modeling consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 99L is starting to look too close to giving Lousiana some bad problems with their current situation. I'd like the rains over this way, and for them to be out of harm's way. It looks like today's 12z Euro is weakening the ridge a little bit slower, hence it come in further to our West? Bad maps currently, so can't be sure. Edit - Took a look at the 00z Euro ensemble Cyclone tracks. Very clustered coming up through Florida, into Georgia/SC/coast. Awaiting the 12z charts... interested to see if they shifted West also.Big SW shift on the eps Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 23 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: Big SW shift on the eps Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm currently going to use Cold Rain's point and tend to believe the ridge (which will likely be strong!) won't break down as fast as previous Euro OP runs have shown. Phil had posted on Twitter that more than half of the 12z members develop into a system. The large spread of location is still there, but there are a lot less of them trying to creep up the Eastern Florida coast now. I don't think as far West as Texas is too much in play, but I am worried for the Lousiana/MS area right now. Then we would have to see what happens with the ridge after initial impact. Lots of variables. To top it off, we aren't even 100% sure we will have much of a system right now. I'm leaning towards it, but the dry air and land masses around could throw a kink in things. If it survives the track, it quite literally could go "boom" in the Gulf area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Euro! 12z 21st 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Euro is being consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro is being consistent. You should see the EPS. With obvious shifts, it's all over the place. Those two charts aren't set in stone. Look @ the difference of the "red stuff" and the strength of the storm between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, Shawn said: You should see the EPS. With obvious shifts, it's all over the place. Those two charts aren't set in stone. Look @ the difference of the "red stuff" and the strength of the storm between the two. Yep, still time to go. Just glad we are finally chasing something! New Orleans cant get anymore rain. Gonna devastate the area if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 The Cyclone Charts from ECMWF that Ryan Maue puts on on Weatherbell took QUITE the shift west versus last night's 00z run. I'm not sure if I can post them, so will refrain. But instead of clustering up through Florida, into parts of GA, and riding the SC coast/off the coast of NC... The chart is quite literally anywhere from Texas to East of Florida with the Operational/Control run's track smashed right in the middle. 2 of the members even track it into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 It could be a lot worse, but EURO is close enough to Baton Rouge to cause some real trouble yet again. edit: wow, lots of places along that westward track would definitely not appreciate all the extra rain. Cotton has been hit hard in TX from what I've read because of the rain they've had already. It's completely unscientific but I'm still waiting for the turn to the north nearly everything eventually takes. Maybe tomorrow's flight will have more information if they go ahead with it. Would be nice to start narrowing down the list of likely "winners" out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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