Cary_Snow95 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 This run is weaker so if it even redevelops expect it to go way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 it is weaker, poof city. being an atlantic hurricane enthusiast is like watching paint dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Deepening after hitting Miami. Now just offshore western Florida and moving North. Down to 1000mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Landfall in Pensacola.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 0Z GEM however... And yes that is 960 mb, not 980. So, Cat 3. And yes this is heading northwest at this hour, so a landfall in NC/SC would be assumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Alright guys calm down with the Day 10+ fantasy canes. Haha. Although 99L does look interesting. It's got a lot to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 10 hours ago, Jon said: Alright guys calm down with the Day 10+ fantasy canes. Haha. Although 99L does look interesting. It's got a lot to work with... Yeah the biggest take away is that the models all have a storm that looks to threaten the US...still that CMC run was a nasty one and thats the kinda setup that gets a Cat 3/4 onshore in the SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 58 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah the biggest take away is that the models all have a storm that looks to threaten the US...still that CMC run was a nasty one and thats the kinda setup that gets a Cat 3/4 onshore in the SE.... I agree and most of the fantasy canes are at the 384 hour not 240. The models have been consistent lately with a cane either off the SE coast or NE GOM. But yeah anything can happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 Obviously models are over the place. Check in, in 4 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 LOL the wave behind 99L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 39 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: LOL the wave behind 99L Yeah, another wave GFS keys on. Lots going on...would think things may get interesting in the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 On 8/17/2016 at 6:12 PM, ldub23 said: Looks like it is already drying up. Why was it named? On 8/17/2016 at 11:55 PM, ldub23 said: The hurricane man on TWC said it was a waste of a name on a puf of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 CMC was a NC/SC border landfall moving north...in 10 days lol...models do however keep hinting at something off the SE coast next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 12z euro develops a weak storm off the Florida coast and moves it due west into the northern gulf thanks to the ridge , approaching Louisiana by the end of the run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 14 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 12z euro develops a weak storm off the Florida coast and moves it due west into the northern gulf thanks to the ridge , approaching Louisiana by the end of the run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Without violating any copyright or otherwise, can you post a map/pic (my Euro sucks!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Without violating any copyright or otherwise, can you post a map/pic (my Euro sucks!).So I've been down this road before. I don't know the rules here very well but I have talked to Ryan about this numerous times and the image I'm about to post is ok in moderation but not all the time for obvious reasons Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Stormcatt - Thanks! Don't get close to the edge on what you can share! There's always a PM. Anyway - living down here, when we see a post that suggests activity in the Gulf, and without all the tools at ready disposal (in this case top notch Euro), curiosity does prompt a "Can you post ...?" response. :~) Best! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Stormcatt - Thanks! Don't get close to the edge on what you can share! There's always a PM. Anyway - living down here, when we see a post that suggests activity in the Gulf, and without all the tools at ready disposal (in this case top notch Euro), curiosity does prompt a "Can you post ...?" response. :~) Best! PhilNo problem . Good idea about the PM. The 12z EPS gives some support to the OP . It was a far more active run vs previous eps runs over the last few days Day 10 and 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 18z GFS shows Tropical Storm Hermine threatening East Coast of Florida Peninsula, at 999mb. Imagine the surf created by a category four hurricane near 60W like the GFS shows Gaston being down to 924mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Share Posted August 21, 2016 Correction, GFS shows Hermine becoming a cat 1 hurricane threatening the entire East Coast instead, doesn't even really come close to FL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Model runs are going to be inconsistent this far out, but the main thing is business is about to pick up in the tropics, and folks need to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 That's true, and we've just about finished eating and drinking last year's hurricane supplies. Time to refresh on the next Sam's trip in a couple of days, guaranteeing nothing will make landfall anywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Both GFS and CMC seem to have issues with whatever it is in the Bahamas later this week into next week....CMC landfalls a tropical storm into the central Florida east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 And the Euro.... Does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: And the Euro.... Does this. And in 10 days, we get a snow storm in the SE? Seriously, 10 days is a long way away - but the models do keep suggesting and suggesting and for several runs they haven't backed off of something happening. So - well worth keeping in tune to. 'Least ways down here. Now on to board meltdown for the 1st snow .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Pre-Hermine 99L could be a menace down the road as she enters the Bahamas. HWRF model goes bonkers for it near hour 96-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 22 Location: 12.6°N 30.7°W Moving: WNW at 18 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Gaston is developing into a mean cyclone right now, convection blossoming throughout his circulation and 99L is developing -80C cold cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Both 12z & tonight's 00z Euro run show a possible problem into FL, GA, SC, NC from 99L. Watching a bit closer now as to track. 200+ hours out. 12z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Looks like we don't have to worry about Gaston, as it appears to be heading out to sea. I though Fiona was supposed to do the same, but the forecast track is getting close to NC now. However, it doesn't seem to be much of a storm if it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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