downeastnc Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: what happened to the canes? Actually we are ahead of schedule as of right now, we dont average our 5th name storm until Aug 30th or so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Now that doesn't seem quite right... Quote 1. A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a couple of hundred miles west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days before conditions become less favorable by the end of the week. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the eastern Atlantic through mid-week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 It's the 384 gfs so it's wrong but something to at least watch the pattern for over the long range as the gfs places a strengthening hurricane over the southwest atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 CfcffffffSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 10 hours ago, Stormcatt said: Cfcffffff Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Looks like it is already drying up. Why was it named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Looks like it is already drying up. Why was it named? Shear (pun) boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 The hurricane man on TWC said it was a waste of a name on a puf of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 CMC says hi.....no other model has this of course, but they have all flirted with a SE threat in this time frame off and on.....so its mildly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Sounds like most think Fiona is going to swim with the fishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 We have an X out there off Africa now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 0z GFS gets even more interesting... Stronger and a tad west of the 18z run. Down to 963mb about 200-300 miles off the NC coast. HP sitting offshore eastern Canada is something to watch.. If it were to trend stronger than it could push this thing west. Looks like we might have something to track. EDIT** The wave behind this one is weaker and did not intensify like it did at 18z but is there nonetheless. Things are heating up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 the west trend continues, its a miss both times but the 06Z has it getting real close to on or even just west of 75 00Z 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 The way I see it is we need a developed system in the southwest atlantic first then we can start worrying about where it will end up. Starting to see agreement on the future of 99l being somewhere in the sw Atlantic as a developed system so that's a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 12z GFS is completely missing the Atlantic seaboard and taking aim at the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul4885 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, paul4885 said: A bit N of cuba and a bit more west could have a scary scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Looking like the SE could have a issue down the road..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 18z GFS seems to be bringing it back east. Its heading into the bahamas at 174. It also is stronger this run which could account for the eastward movement. Landfall at the FL/GA line and then weakens to move up thru SC and then Central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Yeah - I get real concerned down here with runs showing this, and me in the middle ... personal history has us getting slapped in these sort of runs .... but it is 10 days out ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 This 18z GFS run deserves a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I think SE FL is particularly vulnerable given how poorly the models have done with the strength of the WAR ridge lately. Maybe it ends up in the Gulf long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 11 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Yeah - I get real concerned down here with runs showing this, and me in the middle ... personal history has us getting slapped in these sort of runs .... but it is 10 days out ......... Don't get yourself worked up until you have solid agreement within 120hrs. Then it's time to start preparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't get yourself worked up until you have solid agreement within 120hrs. Then it's time to start preparing. I don't get worked up! Just an observation. Been here way tooooo long to take anything seriously until 72 hours out (i.e., Charlie) ... :~) Prep - we're ready (for snow!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't get yourself worked up until you have solid agreement within 120hrs. Then it's time to start preparing. I wouldnt even prep 120 hrs out.....maybe 72 hrs.....you also have to consider most folks in the SE especially near the coast are pretty storm savvy.....we have been there before and eventually we will again......I just hope if it does come in the NC its a day hit, night hits are the worst. That last GFS run was very close to Floyd just shift the landfall to the NC/SC border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 72 hours - spot on! Been there done that ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 3 hours ago, RubiksDestroyer said: This 18z GFS run deserves a This would somehow miss JShetleys house and he would only get .001" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 20, 2016 Share Posted August 20, 2016 0z is running. Place your bets. I have a gut feeling this run ends back in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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