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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season General Discussion


Solak

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GFS is being stubborn about something in fantasy time. We'll see ....

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png

 

It keeps pushing it back though so I am more suspect than usual, a few days ago it had the "storm" up over the SE coast by July 4th, now its LA and July 7th...it does seem stubborn about something forming in the western Caribbean though.

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It keeps pushing it back though so I am more suspect than usual, a few days ago it had the "storm" up over the SE coast by July 4th, now its LA and July 7th...it does seem stubborn about something forming in the western Caribbean though.

 

Precisely my point ....

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GFS has had pretty low verification scores lately and Euro has been kicking its butt, but to be fair, it was the first model to pick up on Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. Picked up Bonnie 2 weeks out. There is a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that will be moving through as well as help from the MJO. Don't want to completely rule out what the GFS is showing.

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Recon scheduled for 95L once its in the Bay of Campeche. GFS still not sure where to send it...been showing hits anywhere along the big coast of Texas.

My tax $$$$ on a yellow.

 

Oh yeah - it's right after June 15th so the Treasury is flush with estimated tax payments this week :axe:

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Probably nothing but EURO did develop this into a storm several days ago. No mention from NHC or anything but something I'm going to watch tonight now that its a low pressure in the GOM firing up convection.

 

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Not seeing it but at what hour is the EURO developing (?) - would like to look at other models I have access to.

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Not seeing it but at what hour is the EURO developing (?) - would like to look at other models I have access to.

 

9days ago euro showing deepening tropical storm for june 30th. the latest wrf-arw takes it to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.odds are low nobody really talking about it at all but I like to watch it all even what doesn't develop

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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  • 3 weeks later...
6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Growing worried when the E PAC finally stops the parade of storms it will cause a reaction in the Atlantic like it usually does...could be tracking more than one or two at the same time coming off Africa in August/September.

Can't wait till we get closer to the peak of the season.

They'll all turn out sea if any develop unless this pattern changes. Look at the 1995 season to see what I mean. 

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59 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

But still some differences with no season ever alike...'95 was very active in July (4 names) with a slow September (4 names). '16 looks to be playing out differently in when they form...which ultimately plays differently with more favorable conditions (warmer water, possibly less shear in the MDR, climo track, etc). Also worth noting 100% of the storms have made landfall so far. 

'95 August also brought Jerry with >18" for the dust bowl of upstate SC

 

 

That's the 1 thing about 1995 I'd like to repeat, but with amounts cut by about 60-70%, at least in the GSP metro. That storm was not much as tropical systems go, but it sure ended a drought over much of GA, NC, and SC. We only got that because it formed over the gulf though. Atlantic storms that year recurved, except for Erin, which got into the gulf and came in well to our west.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Some
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
However, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development early next week while the system is over
the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
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97L formed today.

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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