NJwx85 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 7h7 hours ago One can see the GEFS gradually shed its TC genesis bias as MSLP rises in W. Atl. in Day 8-12 as forecast moves up: at both of you talking about a system 300 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 at both of you talking about a system 300 hours out Just wait. NWNC is only about two weeks away from posting a Microsoft Paint map of our first snow chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 GFS is being stubborn about something in fantasy time. We'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Just wait. NWNC is only about two weeks away from posting a Microsoft Paint map of our first snow chance. I cant wait, it will probably look like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 GFS is being stubborn about something in fantasy time. We'll see .... gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png It keeps pushing it back though so I am more suspect than usual, a few days ago it had the "storm" up over the SE coast by July 4th, now its LA and July 7th...it does seem stubborn about something forming in the western Caribbean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 It keeps pushing it back though so I am more suspect than usual, a few days ago it had the "storm" up over the SE coast by July 4th, now its LA and July 7th...it does seem stubborn about something forming in the western Caribbean though. Precisely my point .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 GFS has had pretty low verification scores lately and Euro has been kicking its butt, but to be fair, it was the first model to pick up on Bonnie, Colin, and Danielle. Picked up Bonnie 2 weeks out. There is a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that will be moving through as well as help from the MJO. Don't want to completely rule out what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Recon scheduled for 95L once its in the Bay of Campeche. GFS still not sure where to send it...been showing hits anywhere along the big coast of Texas. My tax $$$$ on a yellow. Oh yeah - it's right after June 15th so the Treasury is flush with estimated tax payments this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 24, 2016 Author Share Posted June 24, 2016 Recon cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Probably nothing but EURO did develop this into a storm several days ago. No mention from NHC or anything but something I'm going to watch tonight now that its a low pressure in the GOM firing up convection. Not seeing it but at what hour is the EURO developing (?) - would like to look at other models I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Not seeing it but at what hour is the EURO developing (?) - would like to look at other models I have access to. 9days ago euro showing deepening tropical storm for june 30th. the latest wrf-arw takes it to the Florida panhandle as a hurricane.odds are low nobody really talking about it at all but I like to watch it all even what doesn't develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Growing worried when the E PAC finally stops the parade of storms it will cause a reaction in the Atlantic like it usually does...could be tracking more than one or two at the same time coming off Africa in August/September. Can't wait till we get closer to the peak of the season. They'll all turn out sea if any develop unless this pattern changes. Look at the 1995 season to see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 59 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: But still some differences with no season ever alike...'95 was very active in July (4 names) with a slow September (4 names). '16 looks to be playing out differently in when they form...which ultimately plays differently with more favorable conditions (warmer water, possibly less shear in the MDR, climo track, etc). Also worth noting 100% of the storms have made landfall so far. '95 August also brought Jerry with >18" for the dust bowl of upstate SC That's the 1 thing about 1995 I'd like to repeat, but with amounts cut by about 60-70%, at least in the GSP metro. That storm was not much as tropical systems go, but it sure ended a drought over much of GA, NC, and SC. We only got that because it formed over the gulf though. Atlantic storms that year recurved, except for Erin, which got into the gulf and came in well to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 GFS has a long track Cape Verde system forming in 6-7 days that looks to give Bermuda a scare late in the run....if the turn didn't level it would end up just east of Bermuda.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastHurricane Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 GFS has backed off on recent runs for tropical development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 An offshore hurricane would be welcome if it would help re-arrange this oppressive pattern. This has been the worst summer in quite some time for oppressive heat and humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 24, 2016 Author Share Posted July 24, 2016 06z GFS has a coastal storm the first week in Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 06z GFS has a coastal storm the first week in Aug. Heading to north myrtle that week might get interesting ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 All eyes on Pouch 9 Below is the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 per Levi current 5 most similar SST configs are 1959,1960,1964,1998,2014. Average Atlantic ACE was 117 Tracks do NOT favor Caribbean, lots of re-curvature possible but very close to S/E coast and Bahamas could be active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 per latest 0z model runs..gfs/cmc 1-2 storms possible next week with a steering pattern north of the Caribbean likely. Focus has shifted from homegrown weak storms to the long tracking African disturbances in the MDR (main development region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity about 550 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development early next week while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 This is the first African wave to be designated a invest this year. 96L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 97L formed today. 1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Experts think south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 EURO ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 just something to track would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 Looking so good tonight even turns me on anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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